DV visa bulletins cut-offs been current since July, means redraw in October?

[ALTN 1]

The dv-2016 visa bulletins rank cut-offs have been current since July for most regions, and for all regions starting August, does that mean there will be a dv-2017 redraw in October?

... not that I'm setting expectations to it, I'm just curious.

[SusieQQQ 11,584]

You're assuming DV2016 progress has implications for DV2017. It might, but at this stage the main factor behind whether there will be a second draw is most likely to be the return/response rate of DS260s - and we have no idea about this at all.

[ALTN 1]

Thanks for replying Susie, much appreciated!

I actually remember having read somewhere that the only diversity redraw happened back in 2012 and it took place in October (chances are it was an answer from you somewhere here in VisaJourney), can you explain how/when it happened? did it happen in October 2011, or October 2012, and did it affect the next fiscal year draw (dv-2013) or same year?

Edited August 16, 2016 by ALTN

[SusieQQQ 11,584]

Thanks for replying Susie, much appreciated!

I actually remember having read somewhere that the only diversity redraw happened back in 2012 and it took place in October (chances are it was an answer from you somewhere here in VisaJourney), can you explain how/when it happened? did it happen in October 2011, or October 2012, and did it affect the next fiscal year draw (dv-2013) or same year?

No, it wasn't the only redraw; and DV2012 was a unique year, because the original draw was invalidated and had to be completely redone - so I am not sure if that is what you mean.

KCC does not publicize redraws; we only find out about them when people post about it. There have been a few as far as I know, seemingly usually October. As October is also the first month in which interviews take place, it is logical to assume that interview outcomes for a current fiscal year can't be having an impact on the decision, which is more likely based on the return rate of DS260s (or, previously, DS230s) and what that implies for KCC meeting their 50K target on DV issuance.

Each DV year is entirely self-contained so no redraw in one year can affect the next. The only implication is the updated trends that KCC sees year by year, which seems to - sometimes - influence how many initial selections are made the following year.

[ALTN 1]

I thought DV2012 redraw was due to exhaustion of allocation cut-offs early, been trying to find something about the redraw in 2011 and 2012 visa bulletins, with no luck... makes more sense now, redraws happen behind closed doors and I wonder why

Many thanks Susie, you're just the best!

[SusieQQQ 11,584]

I thought DV2012 redraw was due to exhaustion of allocation cut-offs early, been trying to find something about the redraw in 2011 and 2012 visa bulletins, with no luck... makes more sense now, redraws happen behind closed doors and I wonder why

Many thanks Susie, you're just the best!

Actually britsimon's theory (as I understand it) is that there is not a second draw as such, just that they do not initially inform every selectee - and that if the response rate looks low they inform a few more. However it's actually done, it's rare and as far as we can figure out is generally a fairly small number of extra selectees.

DV2012's early move to current was related to the redraw - it seems many people checked the initial entry, saw they werent selected, and did not know about the second draw. I'm not sure why, as I got an email from KCC informing me of it, but I know others who didn't. KCC were so desperate to get to quota (they still missed) they actually started contacting selectees who hadn't responded to see if they knew they had been selected ... I know of one of these cases too.

Edited August 16, 2016 by SusieQQQ

[ALTN 1]

Haven't heard about britsimon before (just googled and had look at his website), sounds like a reasonable theory.

It seems like KCC notification system is not quite up-to the task, the bulletin email notifications is good example, but anyways, do you remember when they contacted you about dv2012 redraw, was it in October 2011?

[SusieQQQ 11,584]

Haven't heard about britsimon before (just googled and had look at his website), sounds like a reasonable theory.

It seems like KCC notification system is not quite up-to the task, the bulletin email notifications is good example, but anyways, do you remember when they contacted you about dv2012 redraw, was it in October 2011?

It was earlier, the 2012 redraw was an entirely new draw. I don't remember the exact date but I'm sure it's Google-able. There was a bunch of original 'winners' who tried, unsuccessfully, to sue KCC or USCIS.

[ALTN 1]

Found threads talking about the redraw since May 13th 2011, that's too early! I guess by "dv2012 early move to current" you meant dv2011.

Other than that, thanks a lot for sharing the knowledge!

Edited August 16, 2016 by ALTN

[SusieQQQ 11,584]

Found threads talking about the redraw since May 13th 2011, that's too early! I guess by "dv2012 early move to current" you meant dv2011.

Other than that, thanks a lot for sharing the knowledge!

No, I meant DV2012. The first draw for DV2012 took place in May 2011. DV2012 ran for fiscal year 2012, ie October 2011-September 2012. Just like the draw that took place in May this year is for DV2017.

[ALTN 1]

Something is not clicking here... the first draw and the second redraw of dv2012 both happened in May 2011, the allocation cut-offs for dv2012 started in October 2011, and they only moved to current in June 2012, so how is it possible that dv2012 allocation cut-offs move to current, which again took place in June 2012, would have affected the redraw decision for dv2012 which took place back in May 2011, what am-I missing?

In fact even dv2011 move to current started in August 2011 bulletin and was first published in June 2011 which also denies its relationship with the redraw back in May 2011.

Here's a thread I found through google, it was initiated back in May 2011, and people were aware of the redraw by then already.

Edited August 16, 2016 by ALTN

[ALTN 1]

DV2012's early move to current was related to the redraw.

Oh please never mind, my last answer was in response to the quote above. I thought you meant the early move to current caused the redraw, but it appears you meant the other way around... the redraw caused the early move to current.

Thanks again, and sorry for the confusion.

Edited August 16, 2016 by ALTN

[SusieQQQ 11,584]

Something is not clicking here... the first draw and the second redraw of dv2012 both happened in May 2011, the allocation cut-offs for dv2012 started in October 2011, and they only moved to current in June 2012, so how is it possible that dv2012 allocation cut-offs move to current, which again took place in June 2012, would have affected the redraw decision for dv2012 which took place back in May 2011, what am-I missing?

In fact even dv2011 move to current started in August 2011 bulletin and was first published in June 2011 which also denies its relationship with the redraw back in May 2011.

Here's a thread I found through google, it was initiated back in May 2011, and people were aware of the redraw by then already.

As I said before, the redraw in DV2012 was an entirely new draw due to an invalid first draw and nothing to do with when numbers went current in any year. This is why it was made public in May, as soon as KCC realized their error. The comment I had made about numbers going current early in DV2012 was referring to progress in that fiscal year, not (obviously) before it had even begun and thus which would have impacted DV2013 - when there was indeed a second draw in October.

I think this horse is now well and truly flogged....

[ALTN 1]

Sorry Susie for pushing it a little too far, and thanks again.