Chinese Communist Regime is Tempting Fate

[mota bhai 2,675]

By Michael Mazza
June 16, 2014

For the second time in as many weeks, Chinese fighter jets have conducted dangerous flybys over the East China Sea, approaching within 100 feet of Japanese surveillance planes.

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Last December, a Chinese warship nearly collided with the USS Cowpens, cutting off the American cruiser in international waters in the South China Sea.

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Earlier in 2013, Chinese ships used fire control radars to “lock on” to a Japanese destroyer and a Japanese helicopter. It is difficult to imagine a more aggressive act short of opening fire.

In all of these cases, potentially deadly accidents were avoided due to the forbearance of those on the receiving end of Chinese aggression. If not for the calmness of Japanese pilots, the experience of American captains, and the steady hands of MSDF commanders, any of these incidents could have ended very differently than it did.

Why are Chinese forces acting so recklessly? The fact that Chinese military officers are repeating the same behaviors over and over again suggests that these are not the acts of hot-dogging mavericks. The actions, rather, are part and parcel of China’s strategy to gain control of its near seas and change norms of behavior in international waters and airspace off China’s coast. If the PLA makes it dangerous for U.S. and Japanese forces to operate as they always have, the thinking goes, perhaps they will cease to do so.

China’s “I dare you” policy rests on several assumptions. First, China assumes that its rivals are more eager than it is to avoid deadly accidents. Second, and similarly, China assumes that its rivals are more intent on avoiding actual conflict. Third, China assumes that the Japanese and American militaries in particular, due to their training and experience, can be counted on to exercise self-restraint in the face of Chinese taunting.

These are dangerous assumptions.

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Certainly, neither Japan nor the United States wants to see an accident or hostilities break out in Asia, but neither do they consider allowing China to get its way to be a viable option.

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Moreover, while it is true that members of the American and Japanese militaries are well trained and highly disciplined, they are also human beings operating in stressful situations whose behaviors may not be entirely predictable.

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China is intentionally using its forces in a way designed make a clash or mishap more likely, while counting on others to ensure such an eventuality is avoided. Put simply, Beijing is tempting fate.

Michael Mazza is a research fellow in foreign & defense policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research.

http://thediplomat.com/2014/06/beijing-is-tempting-fate/

[Darnell 8,478]

i always thought it was navigational errors - they not have the right gear to figure out where they are at any moment in time.