Prediction of final Asia cutoff in 2014

[lucky18 0]

Assume the total visa available in 2014/2015 is 54K and all case numbers of rest of Asia(except Nepal and Iran) are evenly distributed up to the max cn which is 27K.

According to data of 2013, 9480 visa were issued to Asia out of 51080. So Asia takes 9480/51080=18.56% of the whole quota.

Therefore, Asia quota of 2014/2015 will be 54K*18.56% =9990

Assuming in 2014, both Iran and Nepal will hit their 7% country quota, which is 3700 per country, the rest of Asia visa left is 9990-3700-3700=2590.

We know that 5646, the total number of rest of Asia including families generated 2423 visa issued. If the visa issue rate remain the same, which is 2423/5646=0.43, the total number of rest of Asia needed in 2014/2015 will be 2590/0.43=6035

However, there are 11161 rest of Asia selected. Assuming the case number of rest of Asia are evenly distributed, the final cutoff will be 27k*6035/1161=14.6K.

Reference

1. http://www.visajourney.com/forums/index.php?app=core&module=attach&section=attach&attach_id=18014

2. http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/immigrate/diversity-visa/dv2013-slected-entrants.html

3. http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin/2014/visa-bulletin-for-june-2014.html

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I personally have a case number 19k, according to this calculation, I will be missed out .

Someone please prove I am wrong!

PS: maybe due to the high AP rate of Iran, higher case number above 14.6K will have a chance to compete with those AP cases.

[Kayend 0]

Yes, the minimum max Asia CN is slightly above 14k. My calculation that based on CEAC data as follow:

Every 1k has 220 selectees from Rest of Asia

Rest of Asia should have 2.6k visa available (assuming Nepal and Iran get their max shares)

And success rate is 80%

So the minimum Max Asia CN is 14.18k (2600 x 1.2 / 220)

But there are 2 variables that I put in as a very conservative figure.

1. I think Nepal will get 3.5k visa only and Iran will get around 2.5-3k.

2. 80% is a very high success rate that I put in, based on CEAC data it about 60% or slightly more because a lot of Ready status which is more than 3 months old still stay as Ready so I believe those are abundant cases.

Every 1k available visa can push Rest of Asia CN up by 5.6k.

So I strongly believe Asia will end from the range of 15 to 19k.

[Alex2014 0]

On the basis of CEAC data, there are around 270 selectees per 1k from rest of Asia in the range of 1~7425.

However, there are about 157 issued visa per 1k for rest of Asia from 1~5350.

In the range of 1~5350, the success rate is about 58.2%, AP is 15.5%, ready (have not attended the scheduled interview) is 19.5%, and refused is 6.8% for rest of Asia.

Edited May 9, 2014 by Alex2014

[tswielder 0]

So, if my number is early 11,000s, there's hope for me? I'm worried because my current visa is only good through like 8/20

[Kayend 0]

So, if my number is early 11,000s, there's hope for me? I'm worried because my current visa is only good through like 8/20

Yes, you are likely to have your interview by Aug. I would expect August to have 3k jump.

[tswielder 0]

Yes, you are likely to have your interview by Aug. I would expect August to have 3k jump.

If that prediction is true, would that mean I will be able to mail in my application in July as soon as the August cut off number is posted? (assuming that it'll be higher than mine)

[Britsimon 18]

If that prediction is true, would that mean I will be able to mail in my application in July as soon as the August cut off number is posted? (assuming that it'll be higher than mine)

Hang on a minute.

You are in the States on a visa, but the visa is only good to 8/20? That is too risky. To do aos you have to be in status when you adjust. So, yes you would be able to mail you papers in early, but there is no guarantee that you will get the interview by 8/20 - in fact, I would see it is more likely that you would not be interviewed by then!

You may need to switch to CP - and if so you need to do that right now. So - do you have a plan to remain in status past 8/20

[tswielder 0]

Hang on a minute.

You are in the States on a visa, but the visa is only good to 8/20? That is too risky. To do aos you have to be in status when you adjust. So, yes you would be able to mail you papers in early, but there is no guarantee that you will get the interview by 8/20 - in fact, I would see it is more likely that you would not be interviewed by then!

You may need to switch to CP - and if so you need to do that right now. So - do you have a plan to remain in status past 8/20

The last time I checked, I could file the paper work for AOS and the diversity visa program concurrently? Or, did I understand that incorrectly? Are you saying I can't file aos until I get past the interview???

I'm basing my info on this: http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/other-ways-get-green-card/green-card-through-diversity-immigration-visa-program/green-card-through-diversity-immigrant-visa-program

To me, that page is saying I can submit AOS as soon as my case number is within the visa bulletin. Did I read it wrong?

I'm not sure what CP stands for. I'm actually getting married (to a U.S. citizen) soon, so if I need to, I can file a petition through marriage. I just prefer to get it through the program since that's easier, and I've already paid for it. I also don't want to burden my partner if I don't need to.

Edited May 10, 2014 by tswielder

[Britsimon 18]

The last time I checked, I could file the paper work for AOS and the diversity visa program concurrently? Or, did I understand that incorrectly? Are you saying I can't file aos until I get past the interview???

I'm basing my info on this: http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/other-ways-get-green-card/green-card-through-diversity-immigration-visa-program/green-card-through-diversity-immigrant-visa-program

To me, that page is saying I can submit AOS as soon as my case number is within the visa bulletin. Did I read it wrong?

I'm not sure what CP stands for. I'm actually getting married (to a U.S. citizen) soon, so if I need to, I can file a petition through marriage. I just prefer to get it through the program since that's easier, and I've already paid for it. I also don't want to burden my partner if I don't need to.

You seem to be hopelessly confused about the whole thing.

Cp is when people who live outside of their country interview at an embassy where they live. It is a simple process and the visa is granted the day of the interview (usually).

Aos means adjusting from one visa type to another. The dv win gives you the opportunity to adjust from temp visa to a perm one (LPR or Green Card holder). However for aos you have to have an interview at a field office and getting tat done within the 20 days of August will be hard.

Yes you can file your papers when you see the bulletin saying your number will be current BUT they won't interview you until you are actually current. The adjustment won't happen until you are interviewed. And for the interview you need to have always been in status.

[tswielder 0]

You seem to be hopelessly confused about the whole thing.

Cp is when people who live outside of their country interview at an embassy where they live. It is a simple process and the visa is granted the day of the interview (usually).

Aos means adjusting from one visa type to another. The dv win gives you the opportunity to adjust from temp visa to a perm one (LPR or Green Card holder). However for aos you have to have an interview at a field office and getting tat done within the 20 days of August will be hard.

Yes you can file your papers when you see the bulletin saying your number will be current BUT they won't interview you until you are actually current. The adjustment won't happen until you are interviewed. And for the interview you need to have always been in status.

Sorry, but I am not "hopelessly confused." That was a rather offensive statement you made. I just didn't know what cp meant because you threw that in there out of nowhere. I know everything else you just wrote.

Also, when you file an AOS before you get out of your status, they won't hold anything against you until they reach their conclusion on that file (and they will only use that against you if the conclusion is a "denial"). So, if I file AOS at the earliest time that USCIS allows (which, according to their website, is when the case number of lower than the cut-off number for the following month), my AOS should go into a "pending" status. It is then going to be processed when the visa is issued to me (after successful interview, etc). At least, that's what I've read and been told. I am going to double check with USCIS now just to be safe though. Aside from the little stingy comment you made, I appreciate your taking time to respond to my message. Thanks.

Edited May 10, 2014 by tswielder

[DVer 0]

I have 2015AS16xxx. I guess I need a Miracle.

[Britsimon 18]

Sorry, but I am not "hopelessly confused." That was a rather offensive statement you made. I just didn't know what cp meant because you threw that in there out of nowhere. I know everything else you just wrote.

Also, when you file an AOS before you get out of your status, they won't hold anything against you until they reach their conclusion on that file (and they will only use that against you if the conclusion is a "denial"). So, if I file AOS at the earliest time that USCIS allows (which, according to their website, is when the case number of lower than the cut-off number for the following month), my AOS should go into a "pending" status. It is then going to be processed when the visa is issued to me (after successful interview, etc). At least, that's what I've read and been told. I am going to double check with USCIS now just to be safe though. Aside from the little stingy comment you made, I appreciate your taking time to respond to my message. Thanks.

You clearly were or are confused, and whilst you take offence at a not at all offensive comment, I'm guessing you will stay that way, hopelessly. Good luck to you.

[tswielder 0]

You clearly were or are confused, and whilst you take offence at a not at all offensive comment, I'm guessing you will stay that way, hopelessly. Good luck to you.

And you clearly can't take feedback from someone when you offend that person, or actually worse decide to intentionally write even more offensive comments. I'm guessing you will stay that way, hopelessly. Good luck to you.

[Kayend 0]

I have 2015AS16xxx. I guess I need a Miracle.

DV15, a bit different. Nepal and Iran has 1k less selectees so the density below 10k is lesser so it will progress faster than DV14. That is why KCC reduced the special countries selectees after all.

[DVer 0]

DV15, a bit different. Nepal and Iran has 1k less selectees so the density below 10k is lesser so it will progress faster than DV14. That is why KCC reduced the special countries selectees after all.

I hope so. I'm already starting to see California everywhere. I open a local newspaper and see an Ad about Cali. I go to Costco and I see a lady with a T-Shirt with Cali... I'm getting to many signs here