OBAMA’S FATE RIDING ON JOBS NUMBERS

[I AM NOT THAT GUY 5,715]

FED STIMULUS, OBAMA’S FATE RIDING ON JOBS NUMBERS

09/06/2012

Fresh figures on the US jobs market come out Friday, with a lot more than usual riding on them: new stimulus from Federal Reserve, and the poll numbers for President Barack Obama as he fights to keep his job.

With the employment situation stagnant this year — the jobless rate is stuck at a high 8.3 percent — the new data for August could say a lot about the strength of the economy, as it weathers a global downturn and a domestic stalemate on economic policy.

Chances are, economists say, the numbers will fall in the tepid range of July. The 163,000 net jobs created in July was more than double the average for a dismal April-June, giving some hope for a rebound.

But in fact it was barely above the average of 2011-2012, and far below the 200,000-plus level of December-February, when confidence was running high.

“At this point in the economic cycle, the economy should be generating over 250,000 new jobs each month,” pointed out Fred Dickson at DA Davidson & Co.

Analysts are predicting 130,000 new jobs, slightly below average for the year, with the jobless rate hanging at 8.3 percent. That would serve as confirmation that the economy has modest strength, but not enough to have a rapid and lasting impact on overall unemployment.

The numbers come two months before voters go to the polls in a presidential election seen as a referendum on Obama’s economic stewardship, especially whether he could have done better pulling the country out of recession.

“I don’t recall a time when these jobs numbers… were as politically significant as they’ll be this Friday,” said Robert Reich, US secretary of labor in the 1990s and now a professor at University of California at Berkeley.

“If the trend is good — if the rate of unemployment drops and the number of payroll jobs is as good if not better than it was in July — President Obama’s claim we’re on the right track gains crucial credibility.

“But if these numbers are moving in the wrong direction, Romney’s claim the nation needs a new start may appear more credible.”

Last week Fed chief Ben Bernanke laid out his case for the FOMC to take more action to boost the economy, citing the lack of progress this year on jobs and the rise in long-term joblessness.

“The economic situation is obviously far from satisfactory,” he said at the Fed’s annual conference of central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

“The stagnation of the labor market in particular is a grave concern not only because of the enormous suffering and waste of human talent it entails, but also because persistently high levels of unemployment will wreak structural damage on our economy that could last for many years,” he said.

Bernanke’s argument for Fed action hinged on his seeing too little that was positive in the flow of data that make up the pieces of the US economy puzzle.

“If there is a sharp negative surprise from the employment figures, say payrolls come in below 75,000 and the unemployment rate rises a couple of tenths, then the Fed would undertake QE (quantitative easing) in addition to our expected language changes,” LaVorgna said. [*]

http://www.omglobe.com/2012/09/06/fed-stimulus-obamas-fate-riding-on-jobs-numbers/

* Where, short of restarting the government printing presses and inflating the currency? What will that do to Obama's chances of getting reelected when retail prices double again in the few weeks left before November?

[I AM NOT THAT GUY 5,715]

Joblessness May Undermine Obama Convention Bump

...the party was brought to an abrupt halt before Democrats were done breaking camp here Friday morning with the government’s release of its unemployment report for August, which showed that the economy added 96,000 jobs — fewer than expected — ­ and the unemployment rate dropped to 8.1 percent from 8.3 percent.

Obama campaign officials are also mindful that any major economic disruption in the next two months could impede their efforts to focus on the future. They are tracking oil futures so they have a handle on possible gasoline price increases and watching developments in Europe to be on top of any possible financial crisis as much as they are analyzing Gallup tracking polls.

Even before Mr. Obama gave his acceptance speech here, Mr. Romney’s aides were pointing to the statistics that went unmentioned in the progression of feel-good speeches that at times made the Time Warner Cable Arena feel like a hermetically sealed Democratic Happyland.

“The middle class has been crushed these past four years, and all the president is offering is more negative commercials and stale ideas,” said Stuart Stevens, Mr. Romney’s strategist. “As Governor Romney said, ‘It’s still the economy and we’re not stupid.’ “

They are battling history as much as the current reality. Polls are full of the sort of numbers that have ended presidencies in the past, with frequent poor marks on his handling of the economy and a sense that the country is moving in the wrong direction.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/07/us/politics/job-numbers-may-undermine-obama-convention-bump.html?pagewanted=all

[lostinblue 1,989]

"hermetically sealed Democratic Happyland." ....sounds like the liberals on here.