Georgia/Russia Conflict

[Ilya R. 0]

/relNo doubt. And the US is a colonial power, without the stones to name colonies. That is the strength I am talking about. So let's bring Ukraine into NATO, and point the stick - er, gun back. Then our diplomatic overtures will be taken seriously.

I don't know if you're old enough to have gone through the cold war, but I have no desire to go back to those days. What you're talking about leads straight down that hole, and worse, because Russia will not back down to a show of strength. You're talking about playing a game of chicken where nobody is going to swerve.

And colonialism has proven disasterous time and time again. Colonialism and Democracy make a terrible, terrible combination.

I agree about colonianism, but let's call a spade a spade here. I also agree that Russia won't back down to a show of strength any more than America will. We are not talking about getting any one to back down (at least I'm not). We are talking about the ability to voice a position that will be taken seriously. Russia knows that no one will send troops to defend Georgia, and no country has agreed to do so - so there is no threat, and whining about sanctions or failure to abide by agreements is ignored. The Russian government doesn't even argue the point, they just dismiss it. On the other hand, they get pretty wound up about missile defense in Poland, primarily because Russian protests and threats about it are ignored.

No one wants another cold war, but we may have to use that threat to get everyone to the table.

You seem to not mind another cold war if you are willing risk threats that might lead to one.

[Brad and Vika 129]

So let's bring Ukraine into NATO, and point the stick - er, gun back. Then our diplomatic overtures will be taken seriously.

Lol, you are funny.. that is the part of the problem, the US way of thinking, this side of the ocean. Without having a clue what the European reality is.

Do you really think that Norway or Greece would really risk Athens or Oslo for Kiev ?

The NATO reasoning for existence is gone long time ago, show of NATO strength in Afghanistan does not look convincing either. And just about any phrase from US that starts with "let's... " is not being met with overwhelming enthusiasm in the rest of the world in the last 10 years or so.

Russia will do as it pleases in it's backyards, and nobody will have a will or strength to do anything about it, at least in the next 20 years. Condi's barking is nothing but barking.

What European reality would that be? Would it be the reality where Russia is able to say "do what we want, or we will invade your country"? That reality? Because we all know that when Russia threatens to point missiles at another country, or invades and occupies it, or cuts off its supply of oil to force compliance is greeted by SOOO much more enthusiasm by the rest of the world. How is having a soviet-type boot on your neck better than not? Now that is a truly funny European reality (but maybe I am just clueless...Lol).

[Fedup 0]

No one wants another cold war, but we may have to use that threat to get everyone to the table.

That threat ended up with Georgia loosing Ossetia and Abhazia.

Another threat will end up with some other former USSR republic ceasing to exist.

Or with "missile shield" on Cuba or Venezuela.

Same old ####. So do not say "no one wants cold war but... "

Same old US excuse, nobody wants war, but we will bomb Iraq and Afghanistan to oblivion, just to show that we can, etc.

It will only lead to loosening of standards, old story with same old ending. Everything did, does and will have a reaction from the either side.

At least until someone gets hurt. So I would say it's a good thing for now for Georgia to get hurt, neocons PNAC dudes played their little game there, it did not work out, at least it was not Poland or Hungary.

And I bet most Russians feel the same way: "but we may have to use that threat to get everyone to the table", but about kicking Georgia back under the table.

Diplomacy and international relations are always a matter of more than one opinion/side/country, so it is most helpful to be able to look at issues from other side too. Most in Europe or Asia understand this, unfortunately very few here do.

[Korat 0]

Very one sided article.

Waste of time

You say that about any piece of information that shows Georgia as not being the boogeyman. Do you hate Georgians?

MOst Russians do have a dislike of "Cherni ludi"

Like I said before, I wore Georgian jersey in Moscow, would not be served. Changed sweater, served right away.

[Korat 0]

P.S. Prior to Saakshvili regime, you could ask any Russian and most of them would call "Georgian People" as very humble very cultural and open to anyone.

Georgians would not responded the same way.

My former Russian teacher lived in Georgia in the 50's and she felt it very anti Russian.

Ossetians and Georgians have lived in peace for a long before USSR. When the USSR came in, rules were placed on them that change how people lived together. Ossentian language was not taught at school and cultural was not appreciated. Georgians did nothing to back their neighbours.

Much can be said about certain minorities in the USA. Although many Americans think that everything is good, in actuality they believe different. Surface can look much different than what is truly underneath.

Maybe I biased, because I have many good Georgian friends and we spoke much about this topic before the Rose Revolution and after it.

[Korat 0]

Russia didn't get the support it wanted for pretty clear reasons. China and the others didn't want to support a position that allows separatists to claim independence. Each of those countries have problem areas with ethnic minorities wanting to rule themselves. If they supported Russia's position it was opening the door for all the various regions in each country to declare their independence.

Russia views it differently because they believe the separatist movement in South Ossetia and Abkhazia will align themselves with Russia. But, what if these two regions want to be independent from Russia too? Does anyone believe Russia will go along with that position.

Georgia's difficulties began with a change in political affiliation from pro-Russian to pro-western. This translates into who can Russia control and who they can't. It's really pretty simple. Does anyone understand why there is an oil pipeline that travels through Georgia to Turkey and out to the Med. Sea? Pretty simple again, to avoid Russian controls.

It's still about control. If it was about business then the positions would be completely different? That would involve competition, which is a new concept to Russia.

Why would China support this? If you allow Ossetia to go, then you give support for Taiwan and Tibet. Also there is break areas in the Stans. US lost respect for Koscvo.

Look at this

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transnistria

[Korat 0]

Kick the bear (not poke the bear) is the ticket. Obama-esque dialogue will NEVER be taken seriously by Russia. They respect only strength. They threaten to point nukes at Warsaw? We will point nukes at Moscow. Aim missiles at Prague? Good, we were looking for a reason to aim at Novgorod. They won't like it, but they will listen after that.

History doesn't back you up on this. Ronald Reagan is given a lot of credit for taking down the Soviet Union, but the strongest words he ever used with them was his "take down this wall" speech. But that was after 2 very historic summits wherein Reagan and Gorbechev simply sat down and talked to each other. Granted the USSR was headed towards collapse anyway, but those 2 summits did more for world peace than just about anything else.

Russia really doesn't want war, but they're not about to allow NATO to completely surround them. And honestly, can you blame them? The US has been acting like a colonial power for the last 8 years. If I were Russian, I would not trust the US or NATO at all. So it's only natural that they're going to posture. The trick for the US then is going to be to convince the Russians that we really are their friends, and that can only be done through dialogue.

For this group, it shouldn't be hard to understand this. When you need something from your Russian girl, what works best...a direct confrontation, or something a little more subtle? The Russian character responds much better to subtlety.

again watch the Putin System.

[Korat 0]

So let's bring Ukraine into NATO, and point the stick - er, gun back. Then our diplomatic overtures will be taken seriously.

Lol, you are funny.. that is the part of the problem, the US way of thinking, this side of the ocean. Without having a clue what the European reality is.

Do you really think that Norway or Greece would really risk Athens or Oslo for Kiev ?

The NATO reasoning for existence is gone long time ago, show of NATO strength in Afghanistan does not look convincing either. And just about any phrase from US that starts with "let's... " is not being met with overwhelming enthusiasm in the rest of the world in the last 10 years or so.

Russia will do as it pleases in it's backyards, and nobody will have a will or strength to do anything about it, at least in the next 20 years. Condi's barking is nothing but barking.

Mostly agreed, especially on the US way of thinking, but I don't think it's a forgone conclusion that Russia will be able to do anything they want if the West plays its cards right. Russia wants to be an economic powerhouse. I think there's a lot of opportunity to convince Russia that it's in their best interest to play nicely.

Putin wants power and if economics is the weapon, then it is ok. You are thinking one dimension. This is major chess game of political power and if the USA is fixate on the only the Queen and King, then they will be in trouble. Destablization is a major card has also. It is all about power and might.

Ukraine is about to receive 40% increase in Natural Gas. There banking system is already fragile beyond the belief and the government weak. Deposits are rarely guaranteed and I think there is more banks than toilets in Ukraine. Every Ukrianian is spending money like it is no tomorrow and expecting the economy to grow to maintain this. Flats that were 20K is now worth 50K. You can borrow the whole principle. Based on the mortgage rate, the average cost on only the interest is approximately $500 per month, but you can rent the same flat for $300. So why would you purchase a flat that cost more then you can rent?

Capital appreciation. If you believe that the average price of a home will still continue, so that you can flip the house for 50k to 60K next year, then you continue to purchase. But the price of the property has incrase so much, that average Ukrainian can no longer afford this property. You can raise the rent, because they cannot afford this also. With loose banking policies, lack of guaranteed deposits, potential huge inflation from increased natural prices, and overheated spending economy, what do you think is going to happen?

Guess who is going to get blamed?

[Korat 0]

My thoughts is this.

Support your allies like Ukraine and Georgia economically. If the economy gets better, then people generally happier and less problems with the country.

Starting treating Russia the same way it is treating the west. If they seize property in Russia, then seize their property in the west to pay for it. Reduce ability to move capital to Russia. Encourage Capital to leave.

Right now how the Oil Industry is set up in Russia, it discourages exploration. Russia is expecting significant declines in the next 5 years.

Oligarchs are fat and lazy and only want to take the cream from the existing lands and do not want to explore. Russia lacks the technology to do offshore drilling. Bureaucracy, Yukos, TNK-BP, and Georgia has made investors to be rare and the Russian

Chinese economy is starting to level out.

http://www.canada.com/story.html?id=748841

[Ilya R. 0]

P.S. Prior to Saakshvili regime, you could ask any Russian and most of them would call "Georgian People" as very humble very cultural and open to anyone.

Georgians would not responded the same way.

My former Russian teacher lived in Georgia in the 50's and she felt it very anti Russian.

Ossetians and Georgians have lived in peace for a long before USSR. When the USSR came in, rules were placed on them that change how people lived together. Ossentian language was not taught at school and cultural was not appreciated. Georgians did nothing to back their neighbours.

Much can be said about certain minorities in the USA. Although many Americans think that everything is good, in actuality they believe different. Surface can look much different than what is truly underneath.

Maybe I biased, because I have many good Georgian friends and we spoke much about this topic before the Rose Revolution and after it.

Georgians lived in peace with Ossetians? You dont seem to be making any sense. just random opinions without any historical backing. And I am def sure as I have lived in Russia in Georgians that I have known were different than you describe.

[Brad and Vika 129]

So let's bring Ukraine into NATO, and point the stick - er, gun back. Then our diplomatic overtures will be taken seriously.

Lol, you are funny.. that is the part of the problem, the US way of thinking, this side of the ocean. Without having a clue what the European reality is.

Do you really think that Norway or Greece would really risk Athens or Oslo for Kiev ?

The NATO reasoning for existence is gone long time ago, show of NATO strength in Afghanistan does not look convincing either. And just about any phrase from US that starts with "let's... " is not being met with overwhelming enthusiasm in the rest of the world in the last 10 years or so.

Russia will do as it pleases in it's backyards, and nobody will have a will or strength to do anything about it, at least in the next 20 years. Condi's barking is nothing but barking.

Mostly agreed, especially on the US way of thinking, but I don't think it's a forgone conclusion that Russia will be able to do anything they want if the West plays its cards right. Russia wants to be an economic powerhouse. I think there's a lot of opportunity to convince Russia that it's in their best interest to play nicely.

Putin wants power and if economics is the weapon, then it is ok. You are thinking one dimension. This is major chess game of political power and if the USA is fixate on the only the Queen and King, then they will be in trouble. Destablization is a major card has also. It is all about power and might.

Ukraine is about to receive 40% increase in Natural Gas. There banking system is already fragile beyond the belief and the government weak. Deposits are rarely guaranteed and I think there is more banks than toilets in Ukraine. Every Ukrianian is spending money like it is no tomorrow and expecting the economy to grow to maintain this. Flats that were 20K is now worth 50K. You can borrow the whole principle. Based on the mortgage rate, the average cost on only the interest is approximately $500 per month, but you can rent the same flat for $300. So why would you purchase a flat that cost more then you can rent?

Capital appreciation. If you believe that the average price of a home will still continue, so that you can flip the house for 50k to 60K next year, then you continue to purchase. But the price of the property has incrase so much, that average Ukrainian can no longer afford this property. You can raise the rent, because they cannot afford this also. With loose banking policies, lack of guaranteed deposits, potential huge inflation from increased natural prices, and overheated spending economy, what do you think is going to happen?

Guess who is going to get blamed?

It is true that the prices for the average flat in Ukraine are just silly. Over $100k in some cities for a two room place anywhere close to the center. With that much "air" in the bubble, I would say under other circumstances that there will be a big opportunity coming when the bubble bursts. The problem is the lack of stability of the government. It just won't doo to invest in the country, just to see inflation or currency devaluation (like what happened in Belarus) eat up the money. Or worse, have a socialist government come to power and just regulate out all foreign ownership.

I have no clue who will get blamed - other than the most vulnerable to the blame.

[Brad and Vika 129]

My thoughts is this.

Support your allies like Ukraine and Georgia economically. If the economy gets better, then people generally happier and less problems with the country.

Starting treating Russia the same way it is treating the west. If they seize property in Russia, then seize their property in the west to pay for it. Reduce ability to move capital to Russia. Encourage Capital to leave.

Right now how the Oil Industry is set up in Russia, it discourages exploration. Russia is expecting significant declines in the next 5 years.

Oligarchs are fat and lazy and only want to take the cream from the existing lands and do not want to explore. Russia lacks the technology to do offshore drilling. Bureaucracy, Yukos, TNK-BP, and Georgia has made investors to be rare and the Russian

Chinese economy is starting to level out.

http://www.canada.com/story.html?id=748841

Not a bad idea as far as it goes. The trouble is the greed of the corporations that invest. Every so often, the Russian government allows certain partnerships to develop to make exploration, excavation, refining, etc. to happen. Shell, BP, or some other multinational takes the bait - because being first in is just too good to pass up. Then when the refinery is finished, the foreign partner is found guilty of violating some regulation or other, and the Russian partner winds up with all of it again - or there is a closed auction. Until the corporations like BP wise up, the situation is bound to repeat itself. Now fast tracking Ukraine into the EU would go a long way to accomplishing the goal you outline above. Georgia is just too unstable at this point.

[Brad and Vika 129]

No one wants another cold war, but we may have to use that threat to get everyone to the table.

That threat ended up with Georgia loosing Ossetia and Abhazia.

Another threat will end up with some other former USSR republic ceasing to exist.

Or with "missile shield" on Cuba or Venezuela.

Same old ####. So do not say "no one wants cold war but... "

Same old US excuse, nobody wants war, but we will bomb Iraq and Afghanistan to oblivion, just to show that we can, etc.

It will only lead to loosening of standards, old story with same old ending. Everything did, does and will have a reaction from the either side.

At least until someone gets hurt. So I would say it's a good thing for now for Georgia to get hurt, neocons PNAC dudes played their little game there, it did not work out, at least it was not Poland or Hungary.

And I bet most Russians feel the same way: "but we may have to use that threat to get everyone to the table", but about kicking Georgia back under the table.

Diplomacy and international relations are always a matter of more than one opinion/side/country, so it is most helpful to be able to look at issues from other side too. Most in Europe or Asia understand this, unfortunately very few here do.

OK - so explain both sides to us. All I read here is one side coming from you, and a good amount of arrogance in accusing Americans of not understanding. So tell me about the non-Russian side of the discussion. If Russia is so concerned about its citizens, why not take them out of Georgia instead of occupying it. Russia has been known to move entire ethnic populations for convenience or punishment, so why not safety?

And for the record, I have consistently stated that the UN is tasked with policing borders. Not America, not Russia. Kosovo was a UN sanctioned exercise. S. Ossetia was not. That is the difference, in my mind. Same story with Iraq, the US has no need to spend a billion dollars a day to force democracy on an Iraqi populace that doesn't really seem to want it. Crossing the internationally recognized protected zones into Iraq was wrong - and building a coalition after the fact does not excuse it.

[1HappyGuy 45]

I'm sorry to hear about the huge inflation increases in housing. My wife's apartment is in a building that isn't properly maintained. There is a mold problem in the lower floors, due to sitting water in the basement, that is continuing to grow up. Her apartment is on the 7th floor but we wonder how much longer before it gets that high.

I'm also saddened to hear about the 40% increase in natural gas. Of course, they rely on Russia for that resource, so we see the Russians again tightening the screws on their neighbors. Russia will use whatever means to destablized the former FSU's with the intent of regaining their power over them. This is how Putin plans to recover what was the soviet union. Only this time he will make is sound like they need the Russians to care for them and take over.

[Fedup 0]

I'm sorry to hear about the huge inflation increases in housing. My wife's apartment is in a building that isn't properly maintained. There is a mold problem in the lower floors, due to sitting water in the basement, that is continuing to grow up. Her apartment is on the 7th floor but we wonder how much longer before it gets that high.

I'm also saddened to hear about the 40% increase in natural gas. Of course, they rely on Russia for that resource, so we see the Russians again tightening the screws on their neighbors. Russia will use whatever means to destablized the former FSU's with the intent of regaining their power over them. This is how Putin plans to recover what was the soviet union. Only this time he will make is sound like they need the Russians to care for them and take over.

I am really sorry to hear that big bad Putin makes your wife's apartment building moldy.

By the way, currently people in Russia, St.Pete, paying more for natural gas than people in Ukraine, which really pisses most off. I lived there for a while and did not like that.

Think please before you blame Putin again, no matter how popular it is to do.

Lithuania and other Baltics are paying $300/1000m2 for gas, while Ukraine was paying $100, they turning this gas selling to East Europe big bad Russia selling gas and oil for too much is REALLY dumb.

They do not have to buy it. This is the US way too, isn't it? free market?