Jason and May

1 hour ago, top_secret said:

 

I think you are right. It's possible the IR1's I saw were recent CR to IR conversions and had missed the mass expedite.  I give up on trying to predict what USEM may do next but I kind of have a feeling the mass expedites are over though.

 

Looking at today's interview letters it seems they didn't make it all the way to the end of August.  July was mostly covered by last month's letters so it seems that they only made about one month of progress this time which is a little disappointing.  I think in March(?), NVC interview letters went out in two batches on two consecutive days so it would not be unprecedented to hope for another round of interview letters in the next day or so. 

We’re CR1, DQ 08/24/23. No IL. No CEAC update. I’m sure we will continue waiting until at least next month, if not longer.

I predicted about 12 months, give or take, from DQ until IL, and probably not an interview until fall. I was hoping I was wrong, but that would fit the 30 month or so time frame from petition to visa, and our case seems to have been stagnated at about that pace.  

I’ve seen one post from a CR1 with DQ in early August. The rest I have seen posting that received ILs were IR5s. So, it seems like less CR1 movement and more working on the backlog of IRs, frankly. 

But as you said, who knows? 🤷🏽‍♂️

On 4/19/2024 at 8:55 PM, Timmy Clark said:

Agree our DQ date is Dec 1st 2023 hope they keep moving

I was hoping with regular interview letters going out last month to cases DQ through July for CR1s that maybe we'd see my wife's IL in May. Looks like that might not happen, as it's been radio silence. She was DQ August '23. Who knows, though. USEM has been sending out ILs kind of sporadically, and there's a lot of May left. So, I guess we'll see. 

At this point, I no longer hold my breath. She could get an interview letter tomorrow, or not until December. Nothing makes any sense. Nothing at all. 

1 minute ago, rollojusten said:

You are right, we got her police clearence certificate from the Embassy but there were no records available for the deportation. I cant predict what may happen at the embassy, but i can say in our experience that we twisted ourselves in knots about this issue prior to the interview and the embassy didn't ask about it. The questions were only related to how much time we spent together, when was the last time i visited Thailand, etc. We used a professional to prepare our documents and evidence, and like many others on this forum had mentioned, a well prepared visa application with lots of evidence made the interview process a breeze. 

I appreciate you answering. Thank you. 

We have tried to put together a comprehensive packet, so to speak. I’ve been to visit 5 times over just about 2 years. Lots of pictures together, with her family, evidence of the travel and so on. I think we may be well covered in the bonafides. The lack of comprehensive evidence and official explanation for her deportation has always concerned me a little, though. I’m glad there’s evidence of no criminal conviction in the country, but, holy cow, trying to get any kind of report to provide an official explanation and documentation was like turning water into wine.

Thanks again for answering! 🤙🏾 

21 hours ago, librarongue said:

 

Wow, your response has truly lifted my spirits! I can't tell you how much relief I feel right now. Your words have eased a weight off my shoulders, as I've been fretting about this for quite a while. I'm sincerely hoping my interview goes just as smoothly as your fiance's did. Thank you immensely for your encouragement. Joining this forum has proven to be such a fantastic decision, and I'm incredibly thankful for the support and guidance it offers.

Were you able to obtain an actual police report? My wife was detained and eventually deported from Jordan. We were able to obtain a Certificate of No Criminal Conviction, but we were unable to obtain a police report or any report at all. 

I’m a bit concerned about this come interview time, but we’re also just rolling with this and will address it if it needs addressed. Though, I’m curious about your situation.  

37 minutes ago, RO_AH said:

At this point, no matter what happens, just make sure that she arrives in USA after 6/3.

CR versus IR has never mattered to me. I understand the dynamics, and everyone's perspectives and personal feelings on how they choose to approach their journeys, I can absolutely respect. In our situation, we prefer being together. The additional hassles and expenses should she have immigrated sooner was, in our situation, of zero consequence. 

That said, at this point, the only positive I can ferret out of this mess in Manila is that we're obviously going to end up bypassing that, however unintentionally. 

I appreciate your advice, nonetheless. 

We're CR1, going on 8 months since DQ. Given the IR expedites that just happened, we expect another 3 to 6 months, at minimum, for my wife to receive an interview letter while USEM works through the IR interviews, unless they substantially increase the number of CR interviews they do monthly.

We will convert to IR1 on June 3. 

I have flown back and forth to Phils many times. I flew EVA once, and I never used them again. I will always, without hesitation, pay more for Korean Air or ANA. The entire flight experience, from the seating to the storage to food to the flight paths are just--leagues--better. In my opinion. 

To your question: I did not experience and have not heard of EVA gate agents being any more or less versed in entry and exit requirements than any other airline. In that respect, they in fact seemed very on task and knowledgable.

It's certainly easy enough to look up visa statistics and compare issuances of certain visa types, as another poster did. Once you do that, the reality is stark: The K3's not dead, but it's not really alive either. 

Viability is there. As CCat mentioned, there's no harm in filing. If it's approved and that's what you wanted, awesome. If not, there's no negative effect on processing either. 

6 hours ago, top_secret said:

Those who received auto-expedites.  In the previous mass expedites, the whole system gets hit all at once, Philippine parts get jammed up and break down, and those who move quickly hold the advantage.  If you got an expedite, book Saint Luke's now, create your http://ustraveldocs.com/ph account now, and as soon as your case status is "Ready" start trying to schedule.  Don't wait for an e-mail from the embassy with instructions. If it's "Ready" you can proceed as soon as it lets you. If you get "case number not found" try again later.

 

Any CR's yet? 

In all the various groups, I’ve seen only IRs posting they received notice of expedite.
 

I suspect USEM is working through the IR backlog. Which is bad news for CRs. Because, given the wildly low ratio of IR/CR interviews monthly compared to B, F, E, and even H categories, it will likely be another 3 to 6 months before anyone starts seeing ILs in numbers of any consequence, as USEM works its way through this current en masse request. 
 

I guess the good news is twofold: i) the backlog will be reduced slightly, and ii) those of us weeks away from IR conversion will be IR by the next time they request en masse, if they do so again. 

12 minutes ago, Cuds&Fmly said:

We also just received notice of expedite. My wife has a DQ date of 7/12/23. I just returned home from the Philippines, after waiting 8 long months. But I'm still happy to see the expedite. I know it will take a few more months but at least it's moving forward.

Moving forward for some. 

Peeps who will IR1 in 2 weeks or 2 months will still be waiting another 2,4,6 months to get an interview letter. 

But at least this will move the queue forward. There is that. 

And on the unselfish side, it’s good for those who have been waiting years to be together at home. 

1 minute ago, WaltAimee said:

Just receive expedite notice for my wife and daughter’s IR1/IR2 Visa Interviews after being documentarily complete in July of 2023. Must be an auto expedite as we didn’t file an expedite request.

Would be great if they did another mass of auto expedites, but I wonder why you received this and all these other cases from May forward are waiting in queue. I wonder if it is the IR2. Or maybe we’ll start seeing a number of posts the next couple of days or weeks similar to yours. 

Weird. Weird but awesome for you guys! Congratulations! 🥳🤙🏾

23 hours ago, flipicaneze said:

Here is something I found that might give you a clue.  Found this on the travel.state.gov FAQ:

 

If the poverty guidelines change between the time the petitioner signed the Affidavit of Support and the issuance of an immigrant visa, must the petitioner/sponsor and joint sponsor, if required, submit a new Form I-864?

No, the Form I-864 remains valid indefinitely unless evidence of failure to meet the poverty guidelines in effect on the date of I-864 filing arises. The consular officer will determine whether the income claimed by the sponsor and documented with financial evidence meets the poverty guidelines in effect at the time the I-864 was filed. If the income claimed does not meet the poverty guidelines, then the consular officer may request that the sponsor submit current year income information.

 

I would send copies of your transcripts and last few paystubs just in case, but your husband shouldn't volunteer the documents during the interview if not asked.

I would absolutely upload to CEAC and have the beneficiary take the most current tax year information. Prior to the tax filing deadline the IO might or might not request it; however, USEM does explicitly state, “…a photocopy of the sponsor’s most recent IRS transcript, or most recent tax return and any relevant W-2s, if the transcript is unavailable.” 

It would be very unfortunate to have any further delay due to unpreparedness. 

As mentioned in USEM’s interview information quoted above, photocopies of these documents are acceptable. No wet signature is necessary.

We’re only at 7 months post DQ. I fully expect she will not be in the U.S. until at least winter 2025. 

Unreasonable delay at 1 year or more post DQ? Interesting quandary, maybe, given the flexibility of TRAC criteria combined with the Department of State mandating embassies and consulates worldwide to prioritize non-immigrant visas.

Welcome to the United States. (But are you really welcome, tho…?)  

5 minutes ago, top_secret said:

 

In the same month they processed 86 IR-1 and 4 (FOUR!!!) CR-1's they did manage to knock out 13,399 B1/B2 tourist visas and that doesn't even include all the interviews they completed that resulted in denials.

 

At least K1's are doing well with 771 K1 visas issued.

 

https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Non-Immigrant-Statistics/MonthlyNIVIssuances/JANUARY 2024 - NIV Issuances by Post and Visa Class.pdf

 

The embassy is convinced they are doing awesome. 

I saw those tourist visa stats. After I read your post I went to check the nonimmigrant stats just to see. 

The Department of State sure is proud to be reuniting families, they say. 🙄

6 minutes ago, top_secret said:

January's visa statistics just came out.  Predictably, US Embassy Manila processed a whopping 4 (FOUR!!!)  CR-1 and 86 IR-1 visas.  That is with a ten month backlog that must be in the thousands.

 

https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/MonthlyIVIssuances/JANUARY 2024 - IV Issuances by Post and Visa Class.pdf

Nothing to be concerned or infuriated about here. 😑

I’ve come to a point where I’ve decided I prefer not to spend 4k or more a retainer and writ, and so I’m (at my own discretion in some ways) powerless over this issue. And so I just wait. Until 2025, it appears. 🤷🏽‍♂️

15 hours ago, top_secret said:

Just noticed that it's now been more six months since any VJ member has reported a CR1/IR1 interview at US Embassy Manilla.  Previously you would frequently see multiple approvals a month reported here from the Philippines.  I doubt you could find any more than a two or three month gap in reported Philippines approvals in the entire history of this board.

 

https://www.visajourney.com/timeline/k1list.php?op6=All&op66=All&op7=Philippines&op1=3&op2=&dfile=No&op3=5&op4=1

The irony of the Department of State's proud end-of-year summary detailing the number of tourist, employment, and student visas approved, which was a seemingly astronomical amount, and then--tongue-in-cheek--in fine print trying to convincingly state they also proudly reunified an unprecedented number of families....

The month before I saw that press release, I had noted USEM approved something like 13,000 tourist visas, 51 CR1 visas, and just over 100 IR1s (I think those were the November 2023 stats). 

I'm in a Rod Serling screenplay, playing some dude who's simultaneously baffled but also not even a little bit surprised. 

5 hours ago, top_secret said:

 

It is indeed a wise policy not allowing Facebook links.   However, the link someone posted here earlier was to US Embassy Manila's official verified Facebook page and a rather daft post the embassy made bragging about how awesome they have done reducing their non-immigrant interview backlog from over 6 months a year ago to less than a month now, all during a time period that has seen the backlog for spousal interviews increase from less than a month at the beginning of 2023 to almost 10 months where it stands now.  Some may want to Google US Embassy Manila's official verified Facebook page if they have any commentary on the embassy's priorities when it comes to interview backlogs.

I saw that on their page. Well said about the embassy. Daft indeed.... 

5 hours ago, WaltAimee said:

I requested that my congresswoman do an inquiry in late October of 2023 and at that time the response was that the embassy was processing cases that were DQ on or before June of 2021, so if within three months NVC has caught up with 16 months of backlog it won’t take them very long to get current.

 

Either they caught up preternaturally quickly, or responses to inquiries are all over the place....

On 2/3/2024 at 6:19 PM, Timmy Clark said:

Has anyone received notification for an cr1 interview recently?

I haven't heard of anyone receiving any interview letters for CR or IR whatsoever. What I have seen is this email I attached. 

Speculation is that wait times for interview wait times from DQ have lengthened from the previously oft-quoted 6 to 9 months to 12+ months from DQ. That said, no one seems to know much of anything. It's all been "I've heard," guesswork, and speculation. At least from my perspective, based on what I've seen. 

If you are able, save for a trip to see your wife, because you likely will need that renewal and time together during this time, while the Department of State continues to prioritize student, employment, and tourist visas, and USEM continues to quote "significant backlogs" of CR and IR cases (as top_secret mentioned above), which is probably true. 

 

3 hours ago, Vegamanx7 said:

Yeah I just received the generic response after my congressman reached out. 
“NVC documentarily completed this case on 12JUL2023. As of FEB2024, the NVC is scheduling IV interview appointments for the U.S. Embassy or Consulate in MANILA, PHILIPPINES for Immediate Relative applicants that were documentarily complete on or before OCT2022.”

 

I just wish I could be with my wife. I’m stuck in a job I hate because I can’t leave or it jeopardizes our case. 

Where did you get this quote? I've seen this exact quote in another group, except the date was January 2023. I'm just curious. 

If beneficiaries have been waiting 2 years post-DQ for their IL, I would imagine there would be a lot more talk about this, but now my interest is piqued. 

12 hours ago, LeroyJenkins said:

 

My understanding when it comes to the docket delay is that it highly depends on where you file it.

 

Yes, mandamus lawsuits have increased over the past year (and for good reason), but it doesn't necessarily mean that it'll take forever. My understanding (from a ton of research) is that, if it's filed correctly, it still often takes 90 days or so. Of course, if you get pushback from the government, that timeline will be longer.

 

I've talked to a few different lawyers about this and their opinions vary, but, if I were DQ'd already, I'd probably give it a shot (not saying that's what you should do).

 

But I've also considered a wide range of different options (including moving my wife to a different country). 

 

What do you mean about the rubber-band analogy?

I agree. It absolutely depends on your federal district: Some districts will have substantial docket delays and some not so much. Some districts are very densely populated, some are not, etc. 

By rubber-band analogy, I’m referring to statutory interpretations of “within a reasonable time” and “unreasonably delayed.” 

The six-factor TRAC principles are (or should be) used to test unreasonable delay; however, courts have found these factors to be “hardly ironclad and sometimes suffer from vagueness,” and, likewise, “…function not as a hard and fast set of required elements, but rather as useful guidance insomuch as their roles may differ depending on the circumstances.” (Am. Hosp. ###’n, 812 F.3d, 189-190.)

This has become known as a rubber-band test, because of the stretching of interpretation of “reasonable time.” Some courts deem more than 1-year unreasonably delayed, some 2, some more than that, depending on those various factors and circumstances of the TRAC elements, which are highly subjective and flexible or “stretchable.” Point being, there is almost no consistency in its application. Which, whether right or wrong, courts have deemed, as we see in the litigation citation, nearly impossible.

1 hour ago, LeroyJenkins said:

Anyone here consider a Writ of Mandamus lawsuit?

 

This one seemed to work in Manila for K1 visas (which are now processing very quickly): https://caselaw.findlaw.com/court/us-dis-crt-dis-col/2174520.html

I’ve read the federal courts in 2023 had the highest level of mandamus filings ever, which has now created a substantial docket delay. But, if my wife remains DQ with no interview by August, 1 year from her DQ date, I have one hundred percent considered retaining an attorney to file a writ.

Whether it goes anywhere, I guess, is a whole other issue, what with statutory interpretation of “reasonable time” being based on a rubber-band analogy. 😑

5 minutes ago, appleblossom said:

 

They shouldn't be prioritising family preference categories over spousal, the order for priority is quite clear - https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/us-visas/visa-information-resources/visas-news-archive/immigrant-visa-prioritization.html

 

But those 1000 F category cases could well only be 300 or 400 principal applicants, when you include dependents in that - the person that's done the sums doesn't seem to have included spousal dependents so it's not really a fair comparison. 

Those nonimmigrant visas, though.... DoS sure did prioritize them in 2023 and then shouted from the tree tops how great the U.S. is to visit, go to school, and work in, and how welcome and encouraged to apply tourists, students, and workers are, because they have the main priority of processing. So, meanwhile, USEM is issuing 50 CR1s in a month and nearly 14,000 tourist visas. So crazy to me. 

1 hour ago, Willie_Overall said:

 

Good points.

 

Another member of that group responded with this:

 

"Unfortunately, the data does seem to reflect what he's saying. There were almost 1000 F category visas processed in November 2023 and only 130 spousal visas (so about a ratio of 10:1). If you compare this to January 2023, there were about 400 F category visas processed and about 80 spousal visas (still disgustingly low, but a ratio of 5:1)."

 

At least that one is based on data but yeah who knows.

I think, though, if we we’re talking a sweeping change in the Department of State in how visa interviews are processed, then we can’t look at only USEM. We would instead need to analyze all statistical data for every embassy. Which could be difficult, to say the least.

I think if this is actually an issue up for debate as to reality, it might be best to inquire of USEM, the DoS, or a reliable immigration attorney how these interview dates are being processed and if what currently amounts to a is true. 

21 minutes ago, Willie_Overall said:

What do you all think about this from the Facebook group?

 

"What I have heard is that there will be no more mass transfers.
NVC will schedule interview dates based on openings embassy gives nvc monthly.
Interviews will be scheduled in date order by DQ date
and it does not matter what type of immigrant visa (IR-1, IR-2, CR-1, CR-2, IR-5, F2A F2B) Ect......
There are many IR-5 (parents), F2A and F2B (spouses and children of green card holders), F3 married children over 21 and F4 siblings that were not included in last 2 the mass transfers. Therefore, they have the oldest DQ dates. Therefore, they are getting the interview slots in order now.
They are at January 2023 now. Looks like a lot more wait until they get to the IR-1 and CR-1 DQ in June 2023. A year wait could be the normal now.

Letters I am seeing from people writing senators and embassy response of currently working on January 2023 immigrant visas.
Also, I have my own visa consulting business. I have clients that are IR-5 Parents, F2A spouses of green card holders and F4 siblings. They all have way older DQ dates. I am physically seeing these clients getting actual interview dates assigned by NVC and IL by the embassy lately."

 

Others baced it up with stats and experiences.
 

 

What I personally think is:

1) The Facebook groups are dumpster fires

2) The OP of that post didn’t cite any credible source for their information beyond making sure to mention they have a visa consulting business (which could mean absolutely anything if it’s true) and they have “personally seen…” etc. “I’ve heard” is generally the lowest tier of unreliable. 

3) I’ve noticed many posts in various Facebook groups intend to create fear and uncertainty through obvious disinformation. I have no idea what people get out of doing that. 

4) If the Department of State were to lump all visa categories together and interview by PD for all categories, then K1s will be waiting years since certain family-based categories are issues based on lottery systems and allotted visas per year (at least that’s my understanding, anyway). I believe that’s one reason why they in fact do not operate that way. I can’t see any reason why they would do this, and I would love to know where the OP “heard” this. But…maybe it’s true. Anything is possible, I suppose, and nothing would surprise me at this point. 

If one of the members here posts a response that either affirms or discredits this, depending on the person who posts, I will invest much more in that response than the FB post, so I’m glad you posted this up here for response. Members here typically cite their sources of information and are far more credible. 

Just my .02. 🤙🏾