Teachers

K . . . that explains it. The numbers don't reflect actual numbers at the CSC, only the VJ numbers. I thought being one of only 31 was a bit optimistic. But, still, this is valid if the proportionality holds. Thanks Tom for compiling this.

You are very welcome. I will be updating this weekly. Of course, some of the approvals may be "dormant" folks who have not updated their timelines, so things may not be quite as fast as the statistics indicate.

I think I read in another thread that 32,000 K1's entered the US in 2005. We have about 1000 VJ listed with 2006 apps, so will probably be about 1500 by the end of the year. That's only a 5% sample. But when you think about national opinion polls, they only poll 1000 people to represent the entire voting population. Thus we may be a reasonable sample. In some ways, I suspect we're a biased sample. We are probably the ones who are more computer savy, more detail oriented, and thus may be more careful in creating our files, and more rapid in returning RFE's. Thus we as a group may be somewhat faster than the other 90% - a very scary thought.

IF things proceed at the same pace, then we will be down to "only" an 80 day turn-around on CSC NOA2's by the end of October.

Tom

K . . . that explains it. The numbers don't reflect actual numbers at the CSC, only the VJ numbers. I thought being one of only 31 was a bit optimistic. But, still, this is valid if the proportionality holds. Thanks Tom for compiling this.

You are very welcome. I will be updating this weekly. Of course, some of the approvals may be "dormant" folks who have not updated their timelines, so things may not be quite as fast as the statistics indicate.

I think I read in another thread that 32,000 K1's entered the US in 2005. We have about 1000 VJ listed with 2006 apps, so will probably be about 1500 by the end of the year. That's only a 5% sample. But when you think about national opinion polls, they only poll 1000 people to represent the entire voting population. Thus we may be a reasonable sample. In some ways, I suspect we're a biased sample. We are probably the ones who are more computer savy, more detail oriented, and thus may be more careful in creating our files, and more rapid in returning RFE's. Thus we as a group may be somewhat faster than the other 90% - a very scary thought.

IF things proceed at the same pace, then we will be down to "only" an 80 day turn-around on CSC NOA2's by the end of October.

Tom

Hmmmm . . . TomyU, our NOA1 is March 30th and is currently parked at Cal. Are you saying in July the CSC granted NOA2s to 19 March dated apps, and in Aug managed another 32, leaving only 31 March dated apps to complete? Hence our app is one of only 31 left from March? Great if true, but that seems a little light for the CSC. Where did this data come from? Just like to check the stats before I start jumping up and down.

I downloaded all the VJ data into Excel, and did some sorts. I filtered out those who have not updated since June 30. Thus I found that CSC approved 19 March's in July and 32 in August. As of 8/31 there were 34 active March's that were not approved. On 9/1 there were 4 approved, leaving 30 active March waiting approval in CSC. In addition, CSC approved 111 in August. Thus they should easily clear most of the remaining March (30), April (31) and May (31-1 on 9/1) if they keep up the same pace.

If they kept up exactly the same pace and went exactly in order, then in Sept. they would clear:

March 34

April 31

May 31

June 15.

Then in October they would clear:

June 36 (finishing June)

July 68 (finishing July)

Aug. 7.

Tom

Hmmmm . . . TomyU, our NOA1 is March 30th and is currently parked at Cal. Are you saying in July the CSC granted NOA2s to 19 March dated apps, and in Aug managed another 32, leaving only 31 March dated apps to complete? Hence our app is one of only 31 left from March? Great if true, but that seems a little light for the CSC. Where did this data come from? Just like to check the stats before I start jumping up and down.

I got all the data from VJ. I went to Immigration Timelines, K1 detailed data, downloaded it into Excel, and did some sorts and counts. Please let me know if you want more information. I have my Excel summary sheet with charts, and the detailed Excel raw data. I'll gladly post it if someone tells me how, or distribute it by email if someone wants.

Tom

You file at the service center that services your home residence WA state but It still is CSC.

The emails in Portuguese is fine by them it shows that you converse often and share a common language, they are not much into the content of the email. I sent them the list of emails exchange between me and my fiance, over 400 items listed and some sample messages.

You will find excelent instructions on this site, just read the guides and look at the sample forms. I especially like the tips about how to package and assemble the I-129F package.

http://www.visajourney.com/forums/index.ph...amp;page=guides

Where you live, is where you live. I can claim 4 permanent US residences. At the end of the day, it is where you currently live. Not where you lived before.

I suspect you have one permanent address - the one where you have a driver's license, vote, pay income tax, etc. Also, realize that this is a LONG process. Where will you be able to receive mail for the next year? Use all of this to determine your residence, and thus where you file. But realize that even if you file in Nebraska, the application will be forwarded to California.

Tom

Hi, I was recently checking on my case status and they have updated the new processing times but i don't see any from the Texas Center about the K-1 fiance visa. And before it did have it for cases filed on March. Does anyone know anything about the K-1 visa status?

Your NOA1 date is 8/4, mine is 7/31. While CSC is quite random, there is a chance that we'll be processed at about the same time. The projected estimated processing time, about Nov. 13, is based on the current average wait time of those currently being approved. As the March/April/May people get through the sytem, I expect the average processing time to drop. Thus my best guess is that you and I will be processed by CSC in early November or even late October.

Good luck!

Tom

I am completing the I-864 and am stumped on question 29. Next to it is text that reads,

"The Total Value of all assets...must equal 5 times the difference between the poverty guidelines and the sponsor's household income."

I don't understand this question and I'm bad at math so since we're all family, here is my situation:

Approx Household income: 40K

Approx Total Assets: 25K

Poverty Guideline for 2 people @ 125%= $16,500 (according to I864P)

Do I qualify?

HELP!

You're fine. But suppose that your income was $15,000. Then you would be "short" of the required income by $1,500, calculated as ($16,500-$15,000). Since you would be $1,500 short, you would have to show $7,500 of assets ($1,500 x 5).

Tom

In packets I will receive from embassy will be forms to fill. I figured out already what will be in there and we prepare them. Its ok if I make and print them already, or they should be handwriten in these exact papers they sent. Maybe silly question, but now i started to thought abuot this, and i want everything to be perfect...

Hmmm, I guess it doesn't matter, really. Read the instructions on the forms, Ieva. If they say it's okay to type, go ahead. In Brazil, they send the forms for us - making it impossible to type - but it's okay to download them from the internet and type.

I am sending my fiance "American" 8.5 x 11 inch paper so that she can print on that, rather than A4 used elsewhere in the world. I don't know if this really matters. Any clues from anyone else?

Tom

Let me put it a different way:

CSC

March NOA1's

July approval 19

Aug. 32

Waiting 34

April NOA1's

July approval 20

Aug. 34

Waiting 31

May NOA1's

July approval 21

Aug. 35

Waiting 31

June NOA1's

July approval 13

Aug. 6

waiting 51

Waiting includes those who have updated their timelines since July 1.

Total CSC approvals

July 77 (mostly second half of the month)

Aug. 111

IF they go in order (big IF), and IF they keep the same approval rate as Aug. (plausible?), then by the end of September we should see March, April and May done, and a decent start on June.

Total VSC approvals

July 45

Aug. 52

VSC waiting

March 3

Apr. 5

May 2

June 8

July 7

Aug. 12

Total 37

I have graphs and more detail. If anyone wants them, just send me an email or tell me how to post them here.

Tom

I tried to do the charts as an attachment, but failed. Any tips?

Tom

Vermont NOA1 month

earlier Feb. March Apr. May June July Aug. Total

July NOA2 0 0 1 8 22 14 45

Aug. NOA2 1 0 7 7 4 13 12 8 52

Open, active 3 5 2 8 7 12 37

California NOA1 month

earlier Feb. March Apr. May June July Aug.

July NOA2 4 0 19 20 21 13 0 0 77

Aug. NOA2 2 0 32 34 35 6 1 1 111

Open, active 1 34 31 31 51 68 58 274

"Active is defined as having updated one's timeline in July, August (or September).

Any tips on how to get tables or graphs to look decent? It looked fine when I wrote it, but this is a mess. I tried to post a chart, but cut & paste wouldn't work.

Tom

I noticed this week my estimated time for approval of the K-1 application at USCIS on my VJ timeline was shortened. Could this be due to the recent approvals from the March filers and the updating of their timelines?

I know posting timeline information is controversial and the estimated date here is just a very broad guideline, but for someone like me at the very start of the process (waiting for that check to be cashed), I see a real benefit to keeping the timelines updated.

Thanks to everyone who uses the timeline feature and for sharing your experience on this journey with us. You guys are unbelievably generous and helpful. For those of you still unsure of the timeline function...

Congratulations to all the recent March filers who finally received the NOA2 and God speed to those still waiting.

I think you understand the process and the uncertainties well.

That said, I think average time lines will shorten in the weeks and months ahead. Right now the average time for CSC approval includes mostly March, April and May filers. I suspect that by the end of September that CSC will be done with many of the remaining March, April and May filers, and be well into the June filers. (Yes, I realize that this is speculation. But as a professor, I use statistics alot. Thus this is informed speculation.) CSC is currently processing more applications (about 100/month of those of us on VJ) vs. the ones they are getting (75 a month). Thus the backlog will gradually shrink. The current 120 average will gradually drop, perhaps to their log-run average of 60 days, maybe as long as 90 due to the addition of NSC and TSC.

I am a July 31 NOA1. I expect to be processed in late October or early November. My best guess for you is the second half of November.

I'll update filing stats weekly so that we can have a better idea of how things are going. In my opinion, SCS should make this data available on ALL applications. But until they do, I think our detailed statistics are a reasonable second best.

"Prof" Tom

If you check out the FAQ page on the Guangzhou website they state it takes 3 months before they get the package from NVC.

I suspect that they get them fairly quickly but that they have a large back log there and it takes that long for them to work their way through it to your case.

See their FAQs http://guangzhou.usconsulate.gov/kvfaq.html

I am in the same boat as you!

I wanted to put a bullseye on the calendar to have an idea when to expect an interview date at the consulate, I used the timelines here on VJ and took the average number of days from NOA2 to interview and using some math figured that the average is 194 days from NOA2 to interview in Guangzhou, so my best estimate for Yu and My interview will be around March 10 next year. IF more people would do their timelines my estimate would be more accurate.

You can use my estimate when you get NOA2 from CSC. Note: your case will be automaticly get forwarded to CSC.

Yes, I've done the same math. I'm estimating my NOA2 in late October or early November. Thus I and my Yu will follow you and your Yu to Guangzhou (pronounced Gunagyou) by a couple of months. Good luck there!

Incidentally, I think the consulate website that your reference is overly conservative in their estimate of transit and processing time. They say three months after NVC, but I see several packets arriving much faster. On the other hand, they CLAIM to process the P3's rapidly. In fact, the data detail on VJ indicate that there can be a substantial lag from consulate receipt to P3 being sent. I'm glad other consulates are more efficient. I hope Guangzhou can improve.

I've exchanged email with a friend of a friend who used to work in the Guangzhou consulate. He thinks things are getting better there. But he also concurred with the consulate FAQ that sending a copy of the NVC approval (or whatever you want to call it) will not speed things up. Too bad.

Tom

Tom, NVC doesn't *approve* cases. They run security checks and assign a new case number that will identify the case from then on. Security checks are usually done in a few days, but they might take a lot longer (months, even).

Check this thread about what NVC does: http://www.visajourney.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=24295

You'll understand why some cases are forwarded quickly and some aren't. As far as I know, there's nothing one can do to speed up the process at NVC. If they take too long to process the case, then you might want to contact your congressmen/senators.

I'm not asking about the NVC process. I'm asking about the two steps AFTER NVC, that can be extremely variable. DHL can reach around the world in a few days. I don't understand how/why the NVC to Consulate can vary by weeks or even longer.

Tom

Some people have a choice as to where they file. For instance, if they are at school in one region, but have parents in another. Those people should still consider filing in Vermont.

I would be careful about that, I work at a college, and the college considers a persons residence to be the voting address. So if the student permanently moves to near the school, changes driving license, has all bills sent to new address, and switches voting registration to their new address near the college, then their residence is near the college.

A person has only 1 permanent residence at a time.

So they should send their petition according to where they have their permanent residence not their temporary residence.

If they send to the wrong service center it probably will get sent back.

I used to be the guy in the bursars office who entered certificates of residence into the system and rejected many trying to claim they were Monroe county NY residents when they were from other counties or other states.

Like Dan, I work at a college. I think everything he said is true. I know that many times students change their "permanent residence" to their college so that they can get instate tuition, vote, etc. But if I were such a student, went to school in California but had parents in New York, I would switch my residence back if it meant that I could get my fiance here 3 or 4 months faster.

Also, it's entirely possible for a student to have some evidence of residence in each location, for instance banking and bills in both locations. In that case, I suspect they could legitimately file from either location.

I am NOT advocating fraud. I AM advocating using the rules to one's advantage within the law. There is a BIG difference.

Tom

Such a good email to get on a Saturday morning (or any time for that matter). Now on to the NVC and the consulate!

CONGRATULATIONS!

Now I hope for a speedy P3 for you.

Tom

Congratulations to all of you. I hope your NVC goes promptly, and that you get your P3's soon! (Congratulations to William33 on speedy NVC approval).

I've seen tremendous variability in how long from NVC approval to consulate receipt, and from consulate receipt to P3. For instance (for China) the consulate can get it 5 days or 3 months after NVC Approval. Then the P3 can take anywhere from 1 week to 4 months.

Any clues as to why? Any way to speed this part of the process?

Tom

My god. I can't believe it. I got email at 11PM Friday night.

CONGRATULATIONS!!!!

I hope ALL March and April folks hear in the next 2 weeks!

Tom

Here are approvals for the week, by NOA 1 date:

CSC

March 9

April 4

May 7

June 3

Total 23

VSC

2005 1

March 2

April 1

May 1

June 2

July 5

Aug. 4

Total 16

It looks like CSC is doing a good job of clearing out their backlog. I predict that virtually all the March and April ones left will be cleared in the next few weeks. If we're lucky, most May filers will also hear in September, and maybe even some June ones.

VSC looks like they have much less backlog, and are clearly July and August at a very good rate.

Some people have a choice as to where they file. For instance, if they are at school in one region, but have parents in another. Those people should still consider filing in Vermont.

I will post the stats weekly. Also, later this weekend I will post similar stats on a monthly basis, so that we can see the long term trends.

Tom

Congratulations! I hope the rest goes well.

What service center were you at?

Please, pretty please, fill out your time line. Thanks.

Tom

My 129F package was supposed to arrive at the vermont cc Thursday by FedEx and so far no NOA1 looking at other peoples timelines it looks like they may have recieved there notice the same day as arrival or day after should I be wondering what's going on or do they sometimes sit in a basket for a few days.

You need to relax and have a beer or whatever.

I waited 25 days. Vermont should be faster than NSC/CSC, but there are no guarantees.

Good luck.

tom

I received the message below from USCIS. What should I do next?

Case Status

Receipt Number: WAC06267XXXXX

Application Type: I129F, PETITION FOR FIANCE(E)

Current Status:

Your I129F PETITION FOR FIANCE(E) was received on August 31, 2006. We will mail you a decision as soon as processing is complete, but don't hold your breath. You can use our processing dates to estimate when this case will be done, but the processing dates don't actually mean anything and will only confuse you. If you are foolish enough to think we really give a #######, follow the the link below for current processing dates.

Tom

Hi everyone .

I just got home for the day and checked my email , I all most fell off the chair ,when i got the message .

I cant believe this has happen so fast , I filed on 5/18/06 .

I-129F Sent : 2006-05-18

I-129F NOA1 : 2006-06-01

I-129F RFE Imbra(s) : 2006-06-23

RFE Reply(s) : 2006-06-28

I-129F NOA2 : 2006-08-31

Congratulations! I hope it's smooth sailing the rest of the way.

It's sad that 3 1/2 months is considered fast.

Tom

I am heading offf ot the posr office to mail my I129F, and so my "VISA JOURNEY" starts today.

Welcome to the club! I wish for you a speedy approval, and the patience to endure a potentially long wait.

Tom

Very useful. Only #8 would apply to us. I only started collecting evidence after the engagement because, well,I never thought I'd ever need the millions of used plane tickets I threw away, or the e-mails I deleted because of limitted space.

You may be able to document trips in other ways, including:

- credit bills showing purchase of plane ticket

- receipt copies from travel agent (if used)

- frequent flyer credit from the airline where you got credit.

Tom

My idea is this: Chose one news person who will be willing to bring some attention to our issues. Example: At CNN some leading news people are Lou Dobbs, Paula Zahn, Larry King, Anderson Cooper. At Fox News some leading news people are Bill Oreilly, Hannity & Colmes, Shepard Smith, Greta Van Susteren. If at some point in the future one of these news anchors began to get hundreds of emails from people all over the USA explaining their horrible expirences with USCIS then they might be willing to bring some media attention to the problems we all face.

Count me in!

Also, if you have a House or Senate race that is expected to be close, I suspect that the candidates might be more willing to listen.

I agree that interest might fade with time. But I think maybe not. I have a colleague who went through this hellish process over 5 years ago. He is STILL incensed, saying this is the worst government process he's been through in his life.

Tom

Today I sent my I-129F package.

Welcome to the club. I hope things go rapidly. But given that you're with me in CSC purgatory, I suggest you find a new hobby that will take LOTS of time. For instance, you could pick a Russian novel you've always wanted to read. And then start learning Russian, so you can read it in the original. By the time you're done with the book, you MIGHT have your visa. :-)

(Nah, I'm not TOO cynical.)

Hope I'm worng!

Tom