Hannah and Giulio

Congratulations!! We got approved also!! so exciting!

Oh my god I still can't BELIEVE THIS!!!

Checking USCIS website and we're still not approved, checking 30 minutes later and THERE IT IS!!!!!!

On June 7, 2011, we mailed you a notice that we have approved this I129F PETITION FOR FIANCE(E). Please follow any instructions on the notice. If you move before you receive the notice, call customer service at 1-800-375-5283.

We're so excited and impatient for what comes next!!

Thanks for the reassuring answers

Hi everybody! When me (the beneficiary) and my fiancee filed the K1 (in february) i wasn't graduated yet here in Italy. Now I am graduated and I found a company that wants to hire me for a short period during the summer. It would be great to earn some money before I get married in the US and move there.

My question is: since in the G325A I didn't write any jobs since I never worked before, can I work now or would it mess up my visa application? Thank you all for your help!

As a matter of fact, i can tell you that based on the igor's list data the approvals are the following (so far)

I-129F

May 2011, VSC: 118

May 2011, CSC: 70

But in the last days CSC seems to be working faster than VSC. As a last remark: we already pass March values but still a lot behind April values. Of course, it's just half of May so there is still time

Not to be a party crasher, but 5 months means 'full 5 months', that is, the 6-month anniversary. This according to VSC, I do have a letter from them that implies that. For what is worth, we hit the 5 month mark and I sent a letter to my Congressman, he (or his staff most likely) in turn sent an inquiry to VSC. I got a copy of the response he got (which aluded to the full 5 months above), and magically, our NOA2 appears within 2 days of that!, well before the 6 month mark. Coincidence? I don't know; but all it would cost you is a stamp.

Hem, i understand what you are saying but 5 full months doesn't mean 5 months and 30 days.

If i wait from january 1st to june 1st i waited 5 FULL months. If they say i have to wait until june 30th to inquire, they're saying i have to wait 6 months instead of 5. So it just means that 5 months is not true and instead the average wait is 6, and this is sad

Hi,

Where are you all getting these statistics from ("approved 60% of December petitions," etc.)? I assume there's a part of this site I have not yet discovered... ?

Thanks!

It's easy

Go to IGOR's list, it's divided month by month. Look at the APPROVED petitions, there's the total number at the end of every table. Ok now look at the number for december: 76 entries found (i'm talking about Vermont not California).

Now look at the number of UNAPPROVED for december: 57 entries found.

Now the approved ratio is just #APPROVED / (#APPROVED+#UNAPPROVED) and then you multiply by 100 Doing the maths, you get 57.14% approved, as i said close to 60!

Or also, go to igor's list vermont section, there's a graph. Look at december.

Now that you make me think about it, this last way is much easier

EDIT: If you don't know where IGOR's list is, on the top menu click on Immigration timelines, then you'll see the link for IGOR's list there!

APPROVED!!!!!!!!!:dance: got our approval by text this morning :dance:

Ash&Ham, we have same NOA1, im sure you'll get yours soon too

Lol!!!!

I think you owe me one for bringing you luck

But seriously, congratulations!!! Hope the two of you now have a quick and smooth journey!

:dance: :dance:

And my question is why are there still october, november, and december filers still waiting if they did not receive an RFE. Does this mean that they could also randomly decide to approve my january case much later than others?

Short answer: yes, it's possible. I've been trying to understand the logic behind petition approvals for weeks and there's not a clear one, at least not one that's easy to understand. My guess is that right now they're trying to get the statistics back into the 5 months frame, and in order to do so they approve people that waited for less than 5. Once the statistics will be back to 5 months, they will approve the petitions left behind but mine is just a guess.

If I were you though, I'd be very happy because you have a very high chance to be approved soon. In less than 3 weeks they approved around 60% of december petitions and now they're around 16% for january. Hopefully you'll be adjudicated before the end of May!

OMG we are February filers as well!!So happy that we are getting close...

Not only we are both feb filers, we also have the same NOA1 date!!! Best luck to both of you guys, let's hope our adjudication will come soon!

They just started approving january!! And remember that your 5 months mark is in june so if you get the NOA2 in May you're very lucky!

Think about all the November, December (and even October) filers that are still waiting!

Hey all january vermonters! 3 Approvals today, it looks like your time is approaching

I'm glad for you all, also because this means that february time is closer!

Congratulations for your super fast NOA2

Now your petition will reach NVC (call them in a couple of days to have your case number from them). After a couple of weeks or less the petition should leave NVC and go to the consulate in the country of the beneficiary. Then he will receive packet 3 etc etc... it's all written in the K1 guide.

Depending on the beneficiary's country, NOA2 to interview time can vary from 40 to 150 days (every case is different though).

In any case, CONGRATULATIONS! Tell your fiance to start gathering all the required documents for the inverview because it's time!

Congrats for your NOA2 Please update your timeline!

The implications of the response to this question are profound. Context is vital must be defined. For example, it is important to note that IGOR list is just a sampling of the total number of I-129F petitions filed. From the State Dept. website ( http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/FY2010NIVWorkloadbyVisaCategory.pdf ) it can be seen that they processed a total of 32,288 K-1 visa petitions during FY 2010. It could be inferred that even more I-129F petitions had been submitted to USCIS, but were withdrawn, rejected, etc.

The latest "Immigration Timelines" data reveals 1786 petitions being filed in the past 360 days ( http://www.visajourney.com/timeline/stats.php?cfl=$cfl ) while

the latest IGOR data reveals 24011 records of petitions being filed in the past 53 weeks ( http://cse.ssl.berkeley.edu/igor/vjdata/stats.aspx ) .

Of all VJ records, there is a percentage of which do not update their statuses as being accepted, rejected, withdrawn, etc.

From the above context, it would appear that the sample size from Timelines and/or IGOR would be large enough for 99% confidence level with a 3% margin of error.

You're 100% right. And the data, as said before, comes from IGORs list. There is no "activity" filter of any sort, so in the graph you see people that didn't update their statuses. Including such filter wouldn't be difficult though. As you said, IGOR sample size is big enough to give us a good estimate of what the real conditions are, even if they process WAY more petitions than the ones that we see here on Visa Journey.

Statistics should never be applied to a single case. If you toss a coin getting 5 heads in a row (very difficult ) and you have to guess what the 6th toss will be, it is absolutely irrational to say "tails" basing your decision on top of the previous results, because the odds of a single toss are always 50/50 (with a fair coin of course)

Getting a visa obviously is not a coin toss, but all this was to say that statistics will never be able to tell you what is your approval time with 100% precision. Every case is different and unpredictable. It would be like trying to predict if you'll get a RFE by looking statistically how many people get RFEs, nonsense.

So yea, statistics are nice to look at and can give you an idea of what your approval time should be, but they should never be taken as truth tables! Your petition is your own and there are too many variables in play to predict when and what the result will be. Hah, long post See ya!!

I am happy you like statistics but this dont count for some of us left behind..

looks like there is no hope for us....

everyone is moving faster and faster and who ever has my case must

be sitting on it for some ungodly reason....

Dont they know they hold peoples lives in there hands...

Some of us just want our loved ones no matter what....

Just pray that one day i will get good news like everyone else...

God be with us all

I'm so sorry to hear that and we're praying for you. You'll get your NOA2 very soon!

And i took a look at your timeline and you're a November filer. Believe me, you're not alone. Only about 62% of november filers have been approved so far, that means that around 38% (including you) are still waiting for their NOA2. I'm sure you'll get it soon, you and your loved one don't lose hope! It could even be this monday!

Here they are. Regarding this graphs, you gotta keep in mind that Igor's List shows data from not more than 12 months ago. This means that the graphs are so low in the summer 2010 because the graph shows ONLY people who got their NOA2 in the summer 2012 AND their NOA1 less than 12 months ago, and of course they're not many

Where did you get your data from?

Igor's List! Is there any way i can edit my post? Two images have a wrong link

Hey everybody!

Some of you might be interested in these graphs i made, I think some of them are significative.

And the one i think is the most interesting:

I know what many of you think and I agree: every case is different and it's useless to rely on the stats for your own petition. But this for me it's an hobby and a passion, so just enjoy the statistics

(Nonetheless, beying a VSCer, I appreciate the fact that they're picking up the pace)

awww hun I'm sure you will be fine. You got proof of ties to home? Make sure you bring everything you can with you. Don't panic...everything will go just fine.

Good luck!!! I'm sure everything will go fine and I hope you have a good time together in Italy and the US!

Hi all VJers!

Since we started our journey for the K1, Igor's list became very addicting and i know it's the same for many here on VisaJourney

We noticed though that many "Unapproved" petitions are likely approved, because the petitioner last activity here on VisaJourney is more than 30 days ago. So here are the real numbers of people that received NOA1 more than 5 months ago and visited the website at least once in the last 30 days but unfortunately didn't receive their NOA2 (good luck to all!!!).

May 2010: 0 (10)

June 2010: 1 (10)

July 2010: 3 (22)

August 2010: 1 (14)

September 2010: 14 (30)

October 2010: 42 (52)

November 2010: 54 (69)

In the parentheses there is the total "unapproved" value you can see on Igor's List. I repeat, this is the situation for the K1 at VSC.

With the I-134, there's no strict stipulation regarding income with respect to household poverty guidelines (though common sense dictates that most COs will more or less work to this). With the I-864, 125% of the poverty level for your household is an absolute condition. If you can't meet it, you can't qualify.

so does that mean with the I-864 I have to be able to cover the 125% or is that with the joint sponsor?

One other question...what is the biggest differences between after the NOA2 with the i134 and with the AOS and the i864? Why is both needed (at 2 separate times)? I hope to have a full time job by the time of the AOS and an apartment, but if for some reason I don't will my mom being a cosponsor still be sufficient? Thanks for all the help!!

Thank you both! I guess well stay positive (easier for me now with this info) and wait!

I'm sure there are similar posts somewhere, but I just wanted to post about my case specifically to get some confirmations about the whole affidavit process.

I am the petitioner and I graduated from college last spring. Since graduation I have been working part time for my Aunt and Uncle's winery only making $10 an hour. I took the year off from trying to find a full time job in my field because I had a lot of trips planned after graduation. I went on a family vacation in June and I went to visit my finance in Italy in July, he then came back to the US with me to go on a vacation and to a wedding with me and my parents in August, he went back to Italy the end of August and he came back to the US in October to spend time with my in Florida and he went back to Italy in the beginning of January 2011. I left the US the middle of February (right after filing the K1) and am currently in Italy with him. I will be going home the beginning of May. So I have not been able to obtain a full time job because of all the traveling I wanted to do after college and before having to settle down and start my career.

Due to this, I am worried about what will happen when we get our NOA2 and then have to file the I-134 (affidavit of support). Currently I have $600 to my name. Once I get home I will continue to work in the winery for $10 an hour earning as much as I can in a savings, but I am still hesitant to find a full time job because my finance is applying to grad schools and we will be moving where ever he ends up going to school upon his acceptances and our hopeful Visa approval. So I do not want to go through extensive interviews and training only to say 3 months later I quit and I am moving (does not look good on an employment record).

We are going to have my mom as a cosponsor. She makes well above the necessary amount to support myself, my finance, herself and my father. Once we find out where he will be going to school I can then move, find an apartment of my own and a full time job in my field. My concern is, will we be okay with my mom as the cosponsor, as far as getting approval for the visa if I am not earning near enough to support my finance and am still living at home temporarily?

I have heard stories from people saying in order to get approved I need a full time job and some have even said I need to have my own health insurance and insurance to cover my finance when he arrives from Italy. With my moms temporary help in the beginning there is no chance of my finance or myself becoming a public charge, but is that good enough for an approval?

Any help, comments or suggestions would be appreciated!

Thank you!!

Congratulations for the NOA2!!

VSC is picking up the pace!!