Obama, Huckabee Surging In Iowa

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Three new polls out in the last several days show Barack Obama surging in Iowa, with two putting him in the lead and one showing him tied with Hillary Clinton. A Des Moines Register poll of 500 likely caucus-goes taken November 25-28 shows Obama at 28%, followed by Clinton, 25%; John Edwards, 23%; Bill Richardson, 9%; and Sen. Joseph Biden, 6%. An American Research Group poll of 600 likely Democratic caucus-goers taken November 23-25 shows Obama leading with 27%, followed by Clinton 25%, and Edwards with 23%. In a similar ARG poll from mid-November, Clinton led Obama 27%-21%. Finally, a Strategic Vision poll of 600 likely Democratic caucus-goers taken November 23-25 shows Clinton and Obama tied at 29%, followed by Edwards at 23%.

On the GOP side, the three polls show a tight race between a rising Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney, who has led in most polling in the Hawkeye State for most of the race. The Des Moines Register poll of 500 likely GOP caucus-goers shows Huckabee on top with 29%, followed by Romney, 24%; Rudy Giuliani, 13%; Fred Thompson, 9%; John McCain, 7%; Ron Paul, 7%; and Tom Tancredo, 6%. In the ARG poll of 600 likely GOP caucus-goers, Romney leads Huckabee 28%-27%, with Thompson at 14%. Giuliani and McCain are tied at 9% each. In a mid-November survey, Romney led Huckabee 26%-24%. The Strategic Vision poll of 600 likely GOP caucus-goers shows Romney leading with 26%, followed by Huckabee, 24%; Giuliani, 14%; Thompson, 10%; and McCain, 7%.

The Des Moines Register poll is generating significant media attention this morning, with the Wall Street Journal, for example, reporting one month "before Iowa holds the first contest of the 2008 presidential campaign, a newly energized" Obama has "opened a narrow lead here, but many Iowans in both parties say they could change their minds in the next 30 days about which candidate to support." Obama's "gain in popularity began with a fiery speech three weeks ago in which the Illinois Democrat vowed to turn away from the partisan battles common in the past. That helped to galvanize his campaign."

The CBS Evening News reported, "The big surprise is on the Republican side, where Mike Huckabee is at the top of the heap, up 17 points since October." CBS (Chen) added Huckabee "was quick to seize on the Des Moines Register poll as new reason to keep the faith." Huckabee: "I'm not peaking at all. I'm still -- still gaining and growing. You peak when you stop. We haven't stopped yet." NBC Nightly News adds that Huckabee's "rise in the Iowa polls comes despite raising and spending relatively little money. Romney has outspent him by a 10-1 margin and outraised him by a 30-1 margin. In Iowa, nothing sells better than a handshake and a little face time." Stuart Rothenberg, Rothenberg Political Report: "It is not only the first test it is the first real test after months and months of talking."

http://www.usnews.com/usnews/politics/bull...etin_071203.htm

[one...two...tree 2,762]

When is the first Republican Primary? 1st Dem Primary? These early poll numbers really have no meaning after the first few primaries...that's when both parties support the leading candidates and dump those in last place.

[Nessa 23]

booya!

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When is the first Republican Primary? 1st Dem Primary? These early poll numbers really have no meaning after the first few primaries...that's when both parties support the leading candidates and dump those in last place.

1/3 is Iowa. 1/8 is NH. Both parties.

[one...two...tree 2,762]

When is the first Republican Primary? 1st Dem Primary? These early poll numbers really have no meaning after the first few primaries...that's when both parties support the leading candidates and dump those in last place.

1/3 is Iowa. 1/8 is NH. Both parties.

I don't see Huckabee making it past the month of March or April. He's a social conservative who believes in taxing the rich....he'll never find enough broad support in the Republican Party over that one.

[w¡n9Nµ7 §£@¥€r 123]

I don't see Huckabee making it past the month of March or April. He's a social conservative who believes in taxing the rich....he'll never find enough broad support in the Republican Party over that one.

From Rasmussen's Daily Presidential Tracking Poll, dated Monday, December 03, 2007:

Today, in the first full round of national polling completed since last week’s “debate” among Republican Presidential hopefuls, Huckabee has pulled to within three points of the frontrunning Rudy Giuliani. Heading into the debate, Giuliani led Huckabee by twelve.

Not only that, new polling data released today shows that Huckabee has pulled to within a single percentage point of Hillary Clinton in a general election match-up. Huckabee is also a frontrunner in Iowa ...

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_con...l_tracking_poll

[one...two...tree 2,762]

I don't see Huckabee making it past the month of March or April. He's a social conservative who believes in taxing the rich....he'll never find enough broad support in the Republican Party over that one.

From Rasmussen's Daily Presidential Tracking Poll, dated Monday, December 03, 2007:

Today, in the first full round of national polling completed since last week’s “debate” among Republican Presidential hopefuls, Huckabee has pulled to within three points of the frontrunning Rudy Giuliani. Heading into the debate, Giuliani led Huckabee by twelve.

Not only that, new polling data released today shows that Huckabee has pulled to within a single percentage point of Hillary Clinton in a general election match-up. Huckabee is also a frontrunner in Iowa ...

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_con...l_tracking_poll

I think it's great for the Party and for America in general....Huckabee has some really good ideas, but his stance on social issues is probably more conservative than most Republicans. It'll be interesting. Part of what's helping him is that the pool of candidates is not that great. There's no singe candidate that anybody is gung-ho over.