We Warned This Might Happen: Al-Qaeda's Long-Forecasted Assault on Mali

[TBoneTX 49,718]

Mali is hosed.  Not good for West Africa.  At all.

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We Warned This Might Happen:  Al-Qaeda's Long-Forecasted Assault on Mali

 

On Saturday, April 25, 2026, the world awoke to a nightmare that seasoned observers of the Sahel had been forecasting for years.  Fighters from Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), the al-Qaeda-linked umbrella group operating across West Africa, launched a coordinated nationwide assault on Mali.  Striking before dawn, they hit Bamako's Modibo Keïta International Airport, the main military base at Kati, the home of Defense Minister Sadio Camara, and cities including Mopti, Gao, and Kidal.  JNIM's longtime tactical partners, the Tuareg separatists of the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA), simultaneously moved on northern strongholds, reportedly seizing much of Kidal and lowering the Malian flag.

By midday, the U.S. Embassy had ordered citizens to shelter in place.  The airport was closed and a three-day curfew announced.  Russian Africa Corps mercenaries — who had replaced French and UN forces — were dragged into firefights alongside the Malian army.  Mali Defence Minister Sadio Camara was killed in an attack on his residence.  While government spokespeople insisted the situation was "under control," social media flooded with images of jihadist fighters parading through captured military bases and FLA fighters raising their flag over the north.  A Malian air force Mi-35 was reportedly shot down in Gao.

Whether Bamako survives this offensive, falls in the coming days, or descends into a prolonged siege, one thing is now beyond dispute: the warnings about Mali were not exaggerated.  They were, if anything, understated.  [...]

 

https://pjmedia.com/charles-jacobs-and-uzay-bulut/2026/05/10/we-warned-this-might-happen-al-qaedas-long-forecast-assault-on-mali-n4952709