Many layoffs coming in housing, economists say

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zillow.com is your best friend, it gives you a range of the recently sold house prices nearby

Zillow.com just released data for Q4 of 2006. It doesn't cover every part of the country yet but check it out:

http://www.zillow.com/quarterlies/QuarterlyReports.htm

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Courtesy of a RealtyTrac, below is a "Heatmap," showing the foreclosure filings on a per capita basis. The Redder the state, the more per capita filings there are.

Kinda surprising the way the concentration shakes out, ain't it? Colorado leads the nation, followed by Nevada, with Texas and Florida not too far behind.

Source: http://seekingalpha.com/article/26319

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Geographic Distribution of House Price Risk

Source: http://usmarket.seekingalpha.com/article/26468

[Thingee 0]

Thank you folks. I feel much better. I got a deal!!

[Fandango 1,440]

Wrong, just so wrong and completely insulting. Both of you.

There are bad agents out there, but there are a loaaaaaaaaad of good ones who work damn hard to help people get into homes.

Fair enough. I didn't mean to slander individual realtors, although I can certainly see how it sounded like I did. I apologize.

What I meant to say (really) is that the way the real estate business is structured, and this involves realtors as well, the end consumer doesn't have the transparency that would make the marketplace work efficiently. When you have to pay a realtor for MLS access just so you can find out how long a home has been on the market (including all the times its been pulled off and relisted), there's something wrong. That is key information and it is kept from the consumer. Even if you pay a real estate agent, there is no guarantee you will get the right information - after all, the incentive on the realtors part is to sell at the highest price possible, not at the lowest price (whos interests is the realtor representing again?). Bottom line, the real estate professionals have rigged the game in their favor by creating an asymmetry of information and that scheme can't last long.

In Florida, you don't have to pay a realtor for MLS information. So there goes that house of cards on your theory. Anyone can call up and say 'how long's it been otm? what was the orig price? has it been withdrawn/etc?' and any realtor will give them that information. Furthermore, property tax records are all public information as well...And I don't make people offer any certain amount...the choice is theirs as a buyer...so once again, the whole 'rigged' thing is quite insulting, but I'll try not to let that bother me too much.

I do appreciate the apology. I am very passionate about my job and being part of what is usually the biggest transaction of people's lives is something I take very seriously.

I think there is lots of backseat driving going on in this thread...and while I am not prepared to defend each and every real estate agent in the country, I will defend the profession as a whole. However, unless you went to school for certification, and passed the state test, and been an agent, I really don't think speculation is doing anyone any favors here, since it's done with a degree of ignorance. I don't mean that in an insulting way, but unless you've seen the other side of the industry, much of what is speculated is done so without a certain degree of knowledge, which is kind of silly, but unfair at the same time.

I see people get the wrong end of the stick all the time & for the most part, it always ends up to be the agent's fault. Hey, people need someone to blame, that's fine. But if people really want to understand a situation and not jump to conclusions and blame-storm so that they are fully educated on the process...well, pointing fingers and oversimplified generalizations won't really fly.

REALTORS® are people who are certified, have background and fingerprint checks done, adhere to a code of ethics that is taken very seriously, and we're goverend by state commission. I'm involved in my local board, I sit on committees. I go to state conventions, and read up daily on new changes and anything that can affect anything pertaining to real estate. I work 7 days a week, have my cellphone on me at all times, get phone calls all hours of the night from nervous customers, or ones who apparantly don't own a clock, I sit at open houses and meet strangers that could quite possibly attack/rob me inside the home - I have a safety procedure set up so someone checks on me sporadically & we have code words. There was recently a string of robberies during open houses....they'd rob the agent after they were inside the house. But did that stop me from doing the best I could for the sellers I was working with? No it didnt. And I'm not saying this to be all 'poor me' cos I don't feel that way at all, but to do what I do....and LOVE what I do....and feel a sense of purpose in my life that I'm helping people...to come in this thread and see things just automatically blamed on 'the industry' that are sooo off the wall and based in ignorance...well it really annoys me. Especially when I see it from people who I would regard as intelligent. It's disappointing. YES we agents make money!!!! Oh my God, someone call Oprah! But just as someone can complain about the price of something & not see what goes on behind the scenes....board dues, mls dues, advertising fees (yes, the AGENT usually pays for those, and let me tell you, it's NOT cheap), and tbh, more costs that are associated with this job it's not even funny. But people see that check at closing and are like 'omGwtfbbq!' without even realizing that often enough, it will be split in some fashion with the company they're working for. By the time the pie is sliced and diced, most agents will only make so much that divided by the time put in, they're making way less than min wage.

[Fandango 1,440]

Don't take it personal, I don't think anybody here are saying ALL REALTORS are BAD. I had a great guy as my realtor, very nice fellow from Ziprealty.com, He was very attentive, listen to what kind of property I was looking for, and most of the houses he showed us were really nice, and made offer on most of them, too bad at the time there would be multiple offers, but at time If he finds out some agent are not acting properly He would let us know and more move on, but still he always gives us that option, like we were always in control and he was there to guide us. I don't regret a bit the house we bought even though prices have come down quite a bit, but it's part of the risk.

Contrary I had a different agent 2 years ago, who would only show me houses from her porfolio and those houses didn't match my profile, what I was looking for, I felt like I was waisting my time, I did my own search and When i found something i really like she was not too enthusiast to show me the property, I let her go and gave up after I found a nice place, ask her to write an offer for me, she sat on it for 3 days, by the time the other party finally got my offer 2 more had come in and I didn't get the place due to her procastination. AM I to say all agents were not like NO WAY.

You jumped to a conclusion that the $15k bump was done primarily to net the agent a poxy $500. That's kinda silly. The seller could have told the agent 'I'll give seller contribution at closing but not at the 460 price' and they also could have had a prior agreement that there's no commissions paid on the extra 15. You have no idea, yet you used it as illustration of 'plenty of shams going on' You even did all the math right here based on the assumption that the agent was acting in an unscrupulous manner instead of allowing for the possibility that he was just making an offer as instructed by the homeowner.

And I'm not supposed to take that personal? ok.

I don't know what the situation was and why the agent did it. I also don't know the laws in your state, so I'm not prepared to comment on the legality or illegality of this situation. All I'm saying is that there's more than one possibility for motivation behind it, and it kinda sucks that it's always the 'HE'S A SHYSTER ONLY INTERESTED IN COMMISSION!' explanation that is the popular one.

Edited February 9, 2007 by LisaD

[chri'stina 190]

Courtesy of a RealtyTrac, below is a "Heatmap," showing the foreclosure filings on a per capita basis. The Redder the state, the more per capita filings there are.

Kinda surprising the way the concentration shakes out, ain't it? Colorado leads the nation, followed by Nevada, with Texas and Florida not too far behind.

Source: http://seekingalpha.com/article/26319

Look how snowy white Alabama is.

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In Florida, you don't have to pay a realtor for MLS information. So there goes that house of cards on your theory. Anyone can call up and say 'how long's it been otm? what was the orig price? has it been withdrawn/etc?' and any realtor will give them that information. Furthermore, property tax records are all public information as well...

Not here in NJ. The local media is full of tales of people who got duped by their realtors because the "DOM" metric is hidden from public view and with so many listings being pulled and relisted, thats key info that is kept from consumers.

I have no problem with people who choose real estate as their profession, but I do stand by my assertion that an information asymmetry exists in that marketplace and that the real estate profession plays no small part in ensuring that it remain so.

[Fandango 1,440]

In Florida, you don't have to pay a realtor for MLS information. So there goes that house of cards on your theory. Anyone can call up and say 'how long's it been otm? what was the orig price? has it been withdrawn/etc?' and any realtor will give them that information. Furthermore, property tax records are all public information as well...

Not here in NJ. The local media is full of tales of people who got duped by their realtors because the "DOM" metric is hidden from public view and with so many listings being pulled and relisted, thats key info that is kept from consumers.

I have no problem with people who choose real estate as their profession, but I do stand by my assertion that an information asymmetry exists in that marketplace and that the real estate profession plays no small part in ensuring that it remain so.

How would not knowing the adom have people duped? and how exactly does it work...what is the charge to get this information?

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How would not knowing the adom have people duped? and how exactly does it work...what is the charge to get this information?

Buying a home is a negotiation, right? Wouldn't you want to know how long the owners have been trying to sell their property? Do you not think there is a material difference in how you would approach a negotiation with an owner who just listed one week ago versus an owner who has been listing on-and-off for close a year?

The way things are right now (atleast here in NJ) the RE agent with MLS access can give you that information. But your RE agent wants you to buy the home at the highest price you're able to bear, not at the lowest price the seller is willing to bear (due to the commission factor). So many RE agents simply "play dumb" and don't mention that. There are some good agents out there but way too many who are not. Buyers who end up with them end up at a disadvantage; a disadvantage that could be alleviated quite easily by simply opening up MLS to the public (doesn't have to be free). Right now you have to be an RE agent and be affiliated with an existing RE agency to have that access.

[Fandango 1,440]

How would not knowing the adom have people duped? and how exactly does it work...what is the charge to get this information?

Buying a home is a negotiation, right? Wouldn't you want to know how long the owners have been trying to sell their property? Do you not think there is a material difference in how you would approach a negotiation with an owner who just listed one week ago versus an owner who has been listing on-and-off for close a year?

The way things are right now (atleast here in NJ) the RE agent with MLS access can give you that information. But your RE agent wants you to buy the home at the highest price you're able to bear, not at the lowest price the seller is willing to bear (due to the commission factor). So many RE agents simply "play dumb" and don't mention that. There are some good agents out there but way too many who are not. Buyers who end up with them end up at a disadvantage; a disadvantage that could be alleviated quite easily by simply opening up MLS to the public (doesn't have to be free). Right now you have to be an RE agent and be affiliated with an existing RE agency to have that access.

I'm not questioning whether the information is relevant, I'm objecting to the word 'duped' You said 'many people were duped from their agents' and you also said that people have to pay to find out vital information. If an agent is to 'play dumb' by not readily giving out the information, then perhaps that agent is unscrupulous, but that doesn't mean the information is not readily available or free to a buyer. And you said it's not free, so I'm trying to understand how much it costs and how it gets paid.

But the word 'duped' is serious business in a regulated industry like real estate sales. Are you saying agents are lying to people or outright refusing to disclose information? And if you are, I would say that if you have firsthand knowledge of anything like that, you should take it up with the Real Estate Commission as agents like that are not indicative of our profession as a whole and are apparantly tarnishing a good reputation.

Or is this just hearsay?

At the end of the day, when you're within range of negotiating a contract, the difference in commission is usually so minute that the focus is on getting buyer and seller to agree, not on whether you're going to get a few extra hundred bucks. The difference is...and any good agent will tell you this...that having a contract is better than no contract at all. It's not always about getting the most, but keeping a steady flow. That's the thing that I keep repeating and it's not being really understood....don't focus on the dollar figure at the end of the deal. That money is not going straight into the agent's pocket. By the time you cut up the pie enough, a 10k difference in price will usually end up to be less than 100 bucks for the agent. You gonna risk not coming to an agreement between buyer and seller for less than $100? No, you're not.

Not to mention that the buyer is the one setting the price of what he/she wants to pay for the house, and the seller is the one who decides what he/she will take for the house. You seem to be suggesting that agents are telling people what to pay and what to accept, when that is simply not true. There are no guns to anyone's head. It's worth whatever they say it's worth, and that's the bottom line.

But again, maybe I'm misunderstanding, I'd really like to know about this ADOM and how it's not free. I'm not trying to be snippy.....I would just like more clarification because I'm obviously failing to understand what you're saying.

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It's not free because you need MLS access to get to it. MLS access is limited to RE agents affiliated with an agency. Some agents will give the data out for free, many will not.

You seem to be suggesting that agents are telling people what to pay and what to accept, when that is simply not true.

RE agents are seen by the public as people who know the market well. When they suggest a price, many buyers take that very seriously. He's an agent, he knows what he's talking about. They're in a position of authority and many agents take advantage of that.

[Fandango 1,440]

It's not free because you need MLS access to get to it. MLS access is limited to RE agents affiliated with an agency. Some agents will give the data out for free, many will not.

You seem to be suggesting that agents are telling people what to pay and what to accept, when that is simply not true.

RE agents are seen by the public as people who know the market well. When they suggest a price, many buyers take that very seriously. He's an agent, he knows what he's talking about. They're in a position of authority and many agents take advantage of that.

I'm sorry, but that's semantics.

I'm done with this, we're going round in circles.

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When information crucial to the negotiation process is behind a wall with access to agents only, that's more than just semantics.

When a buyers agent gets his commision as a % of closing price, that creates a disincentive for that agent to assist the buyer with negotiating the lowest possible price the seller will bear. That's also not semantics.

[Fandango 1,440]

When information crucial to the negotiation process is behind a wall with access to agents only, that's more than just semantics.

When a buyers agent gets his commision as a % of closing price, that creates a disincentive for that agent to assist the buyer with negotiating the lowest possible price the seller will bear. That's also not semantics.

It is against the law to withhold information. You said it wasn't free, and it is. It is free to any buyer. We can talk about agents 'playing dumb' but the bottom line is it is information that is readily avaliable. It's actually not free to the agent, but that's another story.

To be technical...and since you brought it up....a 'buyer's agent' works for the best interest of the buyer and is dutybound to full loyalty to that buyer only. So before you go making sweeping statements that are technically untrue, you should familiarize yourself with the logistics of the process. I understand that you feel you know what the score is, but unless you can see it with knowledge from both sides, all it is is speculation.

And to be technical yet again, any listing agent will try his or her best to get the seller to be negotiable with the price. Overpriced houses do nothing but cost agents time and money. It's all well and good to want to hold out for highest price, but the market doesn't support it, and an agreement with both parties is substantially better than no agreement at all. We present the offer....we do not make the decisions. I can't tell you how many times I've talked to a seller to show him/her the positive upside of taking a lower offer which may have many other strengths. It is my job as a transaction broker to sell homes...to have buyer and seller reach an agreement....not ** ppl over to hold out for what's behind door #2. And I'm not unique...that is what all transaction brokers do.

I can respect your right to your opinion...even as misinformed as it may be. All I'm trying to explain to you is that you have no clue what it's like to be on my side of this equation, so please don't have the audacity to think you know the intricascies of what it's like. Unless I'm mistaken, it's fact to say that you are not a licensed agent, therefore you do not have the training nor licensure nor the experience of being one, therefore it is factually impossible for you to be fully educated and informed as to the entire process from this standpoint. So just stop assuming the worst, give the benefit of the doubt. You don't have to agree to do so, but it's kinda unfair to make such sweeping generalizations on a bunch of hardworking & honest industry of people. And if you run into a 'bad' one...then by all means do whatever it takes to hold that person responsible for his/her actions and see to it that they are punished. I'm not disputing that there are many people who shouldn't be in this business. But they are the exception and not the rule......that, btw. is the most basic, and important statement of this thread.

Edited February 10, 2007 by LisaD