my old EU prediction

[vladek15425 7]

Raevsky :

I was the only one that gave Eu to 44~45.

[raevsky 0]

Raevsky :

I was the only one that gave Eu to 44~45.

As cutoff for July?

[urbanite 0]

MalcomX -

Thank you for your predictions. It's always good to be optimistic, however, in practice I really don't see Europe hitting that CN for a logistical reason; -US Consulates do not have the resource capacity to schedule and process the workload of 4+ months in 2 months.

Two are the scenarios I personally think might happen:

1) Cap the CN's releases for both August and September and hits something along the 42 range by Sept

2) Do something totally irresponsible and make EU go current in August , which is going to create further confusion, noise, and create unrealistic workload. Mind here, that by Sept , US consulates and KCC need to start the process for DV 2015.

[vladek15425 7]

As cutoff for July?

No final cutoff!

And for AF I'm still gonna stick toi 105k even if its seems crazy !

[raevsky 0]

Final cutoff for EU for DV-14? 44-45K? No way.

102K for AF for DV-14 is actually quite possible. The max case in DV-14 we know about is 116K, right?

[rafikbo76 2]

Final cutoff for EU for DV-14? 44-45K? No way.

102K for AF for DV-14 is actually quite possible. The max case in DV-14 we know about is 116K, right?

117K from morocco, I even exchange some emails with him.

[vladek15425 7]

Final cutoff for EU for DV-14? 44-45K? No way.

102K for AF for DV-14 is actually quite possible. The max case in DV-14 we know about is 116K, right?

Yeah high AF cn 2014 is 117k.

What is your readjusment for EU cutoff final than?

[MalcomX 1]

yes but not only AP cases ...

That presumably includes a number who interviewed earlier and were put on AP, though?
Does anyone have data to hand of # of AP cases in Africa? (I don't think it is big enough to be a major cause of what Malcolm refers to but would be nice to be sure)

[MalcomX 1]

1- I think that 42k is too low,

2- I said 49k in September or even 1 or 2k less because I don't think that they will give exactly 55k visas ...and beside that I don't think that Europe will go current ...

MalcomX -

Thank you for your predictions. It's always good to be optimistic, however, in practice I really don't see Europe hitting that CN for a logistical reason; -US Consulates do not have the resource capacity to schedule and process the workload of 4+ months in 2 months.

Two are the scenarios I personally think might happen:

1) Cap the CN's releases for both August and September and hits something along the 42 range by Sept

2) Do something totally irresponsible and make EU go current in August , which is going to create further confusion, noise, and create unrealistic workload. Mind here, that by Sept , US consulates and KCC need to start the process for DV 2015.

[MalcomX 1]

I agree with you raevsky and I am sure that we can have even more then 102k if KCC don't decide to block Africa,

lot of people think that Africa can't have 100k/105k in September, as July AF VB = 56300 they say that we can't have a monthly progression of 20k/25k

last year , the concentration of CN after finishing with the special countries was high (130CN each 1000), so a jump of 10k or 13k (June/July) means the treatment of 1690CN in one month, (13* 130= 1690)

this year, the concentration of the CN excluding the special countries is very low (60CN each 1000), so a jump of 10.7k as last month means 642 CN treated in one month which is nothing comparing with last year (10.7*60=642) , from this approach we can see that the last VB was very bad for Africa as th rest of the regions. ans this is my opinion.

if we get the same number of CNs treated same as last year, the jump will be 13k * 130/60=28100

so we need to be prepared to have 56300+28100 = 84400 (as Aug AF VB), then 105k/106k in September or even a bit higher

what do you think Reav? simon? Vlady? Rafik?

Ps. Rafik will be happy lolololololol

Final cutoff for EU for DV-14? 44-45K? No way.
102K for AF for DV-14 is actually quite possible. The max case in DV-14 we know about is 116K, right?

[Sloner 0]

For Europe for DV-15 my estimate of max passing CN will be 40000 plus/minus 2000. I believe regular max CN for Europe is about 45000.

I am not sure what max CN is for other regions, so I cannot estimate max passing CN for them

2000 - what's this? This figure you took from the ceiling. Why not 5000 or 10000?

[Sloner 0]

what do you think Reav? simon? Vlady? Rafik?

I am leaving you. Do you Rav in the first place, here and sit with him.

Russia-Algeria 5:0

[raevsky 0]

Yeah high AF cn 2014 is 117k.

What is your readjusment for EU cutoff final than?

Still 38700. Based on 55K world quota

[MalcomX 1]

Sorry Sloner , it's because I already know your opinion .....

the 5-0 is perfect for me (I am sure that Simon understood what I mean)

I am leaving you. Do you Rav in the first place, here and sit with him.

Russia-Algeria 5:0

Edited May 10, 2014 by MalcomX

[Sloner 0]

orry Sloner , it's because I already know your opinion .....

Africa I did not give current. If there is a little refused she hit the wall. quota in this region is reduced.

I hope I'm wrong.

Still 38700. Based on 55K world quota

This number is also taken from the ceiling?