International Business Times: Advantage Obama

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(excerpt)

Watch Polls in Battleground States

Rather, focus on the states that are two-party competitive - where either party can win the state’s electoral votes – and there one can see, despite what some conservative analysts are arguing today, that Romney is most certainly not prohibitively ahead, nor is Romney doing very well. Romney’s standing now in the battleground states is basically what it was on Memorial Day: he trails in most  states. The poll averages – realclearpoltics.com’s index deploys a telling polling-average:

Colorado: Obama 47.0%, Romney, 47.0%

Florida: Obama 47.0%, Romney 47.0%

Iowa: Obama 48.5%, Romney, 45.0%

Nevada: 50.3%, Romney, 45.7%

N.H.: Obama 50.0%, Romney 44.0%

N.C.: Obama 47.6%, Romney 48.4%

Ohio: 49.0%, Romney 46.0%

Vir: 47.2%, Romney 46.8%

Wisc: 50.8%, Romney 44.2%.

The battleground state electoral total? Giving Romney both Florida and N.C.: Obama 57, Romney 53.

Further, even assuming a Romney win in Florida (which the realclearpolitics.com average does), the overall electoral outcome is: Obama 294, Romney 244.

Obama 294 electoral votes – that’s within 5 percent of the Memorial Day electoral forecast of 300 electoral votes – a small variation. I.E., an Obama total of 295 to 305 electoral votes is not a significantly different electoral outcome from 300.

http://www.ibtimes.com/2012-presidential-election-its-still-advantage-obama-842615

Edited October 22, 2012 by Commie Appeaser