University of Colorado Model

[lostinblue 1,989]

A sophisticated computer model developed by two University of Colorado political science professors is forecasting a huge win for Mitt Romney and the GOP. From The Daily Caller:

A presidential election prediction model developed by two University of Colorado professors points to a big win for GOP presidential contender Mitt Romney in November.

The model, the only of its kind to use more than one state-level economic indicator, has correctly predicted the winner of every presidential election since 1980.

It predicts Romney winning the electoral college by a 320-218 margin and winning 52.9 percent of the popular vote when only the two major parties’ candidates are considered, the Associated Press reported Thursday.

Romney, it concluded, will win every state currently considered by pollsters to be a swing state, including Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, Virginia, Colorado, New Hampshire and North Carolina.(updatedSep 18, 2012)

The model even predicts Romney will win Minnesota and Maine’s Second Congressional District, the electoral votes of which most pollsters consider to be “safe” for President Obama. Nevada and Iowa are the only swing states it assigns to Obama.

With Obama’s foreign policy and national security efforts as tattered and ineffectual as his domestic economic policy moves, it is probably more accurate to describe this forecast as an Obama loss rather than a Romney win. But semantic arguments aside, anything that removes the hapless, secular-progressive autocrat Obama from office and puts the country back on a constitutional, pro-growth, pro-US path to prosperity, is welcome news indeed.

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The model, the only of its kind to use more than one state-level economic indicator, has correctly predicted the winner of every presidential election since 1980