Has the U.S. Reached Peak Vehicles?

[one...two...tree 2,762]

By Josh Voorhees

Americans scrapped 4 million more cars and trucks last year than they purchased, the first significant drop in the U.S. auto fleet in more than four decades, according to a new report.

The United States scrapped 14 million vehicles last year while buying only 10 million new ones, dropping the nation's fleet from an all-time high of 250 million to 246 million, according to the Earth Policy Institute.

Lester Brown, the author of the report, said the drop -- the first significant shrinkage the U.S. fleet has seen since record-keeping began in 1960 -- represents a "cultural shift away from the car" and estimated the fleet size will continue to recede during the next decade. He estimated the fleet could shrink a total of 10 percent by 2020.

"No one knows how many cars will be sold in the years ahead, but given the many forces at work, U.S. car sales may never again reach the 17 million that were sold each year between 1999 and 2007," Brown said. "Sales seem more likely to remain between 10 million and 14 million per year."

The report comes one day after the automakers posted sales numbers for December, a month that showed a small but significant uptick in sales and brought a close to what has been one of the worst years in the history of the industry.

Brown said this summer's federal Cash for Clunkers program, which paid Americans to scrap old cars and trucks for newer, more fuel-efficient ones, played only a small role in the downward trend because it accounted for roughly 700,000 cars. "It has an effect but a minor one," he said.

Instead, Brown attributed the drop to a number of other factors and stressed that it was being driven by more than just the current economic recession, which is widely seen as the major cause of the recent sales slump that has plagued the auto industry.

Among the reasons cited in the report were market saturation caused by more registered vehicles than licensed drivers, economic and environmental concerns, and a shift away from the importance and prestige of the automobile in the youth culture.

"Perhaps the most fundamental social trend affecting the future of the automobile is the declining interest in cars among young people," Brown said. "Many of today's young people living in a more urban society learn to live without cars. They socialize on the Internet and on smart phones, not in cars."

Assuming the fleet downsizing continues, Brown said it would cut long-term oil demand and greenhouse gas emissions from the transportation sector, which currently accounts for roughly a third of U.S. emissions. He said it could also lead to increases in steel supplies as big cars get recycled and fewer are produced.

He said the trend will also decrease the need to build new roads and highways, and that fewer cars and trucks on the road would cut maintenance and repair costs, as well as decrease demand for parking lots and parking garages.

"As this evolution proceeds, it will affect virtually every facet of life," Brown said.

The report was based on data from the Transportation Department's Federal Highway Administration and was compiled with the help of R.L. Polk & Co., an automotive research and consulting firm.

Reprinted from Greenwire with permission from Environment & Energy Publishing, LLC. www.eenews.net, 202-628-6500

[w¡n9Nµ7 §£@¥€r 123]

Mr. Galt's gallstones, the article you've posted is one of the most insanely idiotic things I've ever read. At no point in this rambling, incoherent article was there anything that could even be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this forum is now dumber for having read it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.

[Mr. Big Dog 10,747]

Oh bull. I scapped one car last year and bought none. This year, very soon, in fact, I will buy one and scrap none. This is the scenario that occured 4 million times. Says nothing about any trend away from the vehicle. With effective public transport non-existent in most places in the US, how will people get around w/o a vehicle? By foot when the the office is 10 miles away and even the nearest grocery is 3-5 miles away? Fat chance, buddy.

[Peikko 1,575]

There will be less cars being bought until the recession ends and if the recession doesn't end? There is a big credit hole to fill, I am not quite sure if anyone knows how deep it is, and how long it will take to fill it. We'll see.

[w¡n9Nµ7 §£@¥€r 123]

With effective public transport non-existent in most places in the US, how will people get around w/o a vehicle?

Rikshaw.

[Usui Takumi 1,562]

The US will come out of this recession with an adjusted cost of living etc. IMO. Therefore, yes I do see the auto fleet growing very little in the next 5 years.

We have a single car and I see no reason to get another in 3-4 years.

Also regarding transportation, I believe more ppl will move into walking / biking range of work.

Edited January 7, 2010 by Sousuke

[w¡n9Nµ7 §£@¥€r 123]

I believe more ppl will move into walking / biking range of work.

I assume you, like I, live in a large metropolitan area. That's the only way to explain that statement.

[Mr. Big Dog 10,747]

Also regarding transportation, I believe more ppl will move into walking / biking range of work.

No way, now how would consider moving within walking or biking distance of my office. You should see the place. The office is a fortress and so I'm not all that worried about what's going on within a 2-3 mile radius but moving my family into this part of the Tampa Bay area? Not a chance.

[w¡n9Nµ7 §£@¥€r 123]

I live in the most densely populated state in the country and even here, it is a 5 minute drive to exit the corporate complex. Starting from when my car starts moving to when my car exits the corporate campus.

Walk? Bike? You gotta be kiddin' me.

Edited January 7, 2010 by w¡n9Nµ7 §£@¥€r

[mawilson 2,133]

No way, now how would consider moving within walking or biking distance of my office. You should see the place. The office is a fortress and so I'm not all that worried about what's going on within a 2-3 mile radius but moving my family into this part of the Tampa Bay area? Not a chance.

Having a bit of a crime problem?

[Mr. Big Dog 10,747]

Having a bit of a crime problem?

Well, they call the little town down the road Methner - the actual name being Seffner. Not a good place to move one's family to, you know?

[Usui Takumi 1,562]

I'm sure there are quite a few exceptions but for many cities there are urban renewal projects that are causing a change in migration patterns (partially due to the recession). In 2009, I remember a report that showed many US Cities actually growing. In fact, some claim that we are on the verge of seeing the "suburban ghetto" as the population shift begins causing widespread gentrification in downtown areas.

I myself live in a small town on the edge of the bay area and yes I do walk 2 blocks to work, the car sits most days.

[mawilson 2,133]

Well, they call the little town down the road Methner - the actual name being Seffner. Not a good place to move one's family to, you know?

Where's the DEA when you need them?

[w¡n9Nµ7 §£@¥€r 123]

I'm sure there are quite a few exceptions but for many cities there are urban renewal projects that are causing a change in migration patterns...

Urban renewal is well underway. There is a city across the river from me which was a hellhole in the 1970s (or so the old timers insist) but is much better now. That said, young families with children still won't move there because of the poor educational achievement levels in their schools. A city can't grow on young yuppies alone. The poor unwashed must be effectively dispersed.

[My Name Is Nobody 3]

Mr. Galt's gallstones, the article you've posted is one of the most insanely idiotic things I've ever read. At no point in this rambling, incoherent article was there anything that could even be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this forum is now dumber for having read it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.

I agree 100%