Analysis: Clinton fails to get needed game-changer

[yogib37 3]

WASHINGTON - Hillary Rodham Clinton needed a game changer. Instead, it's almost game over.

Barack Obama won a resounding victory in North Carolina after the worst two-week stretch in his campaign. And Clinton, fueled by a burst of energy from her convincing win in Pennsylvania last month, barely eked out a win in Indiana despite her full-throated populist appeal in that largely blue-collar state.

There are six primaries left in the Democrats' epic battle for the nomination, but Tuesday's results were decisive on their own: They offered Clinton her last, best chance to turn the tables on her rival, and she didn't even come close.

"It's bad news for Hillary Clinton, but frankly I think the game changed a long time ago," said unaligned Democratic strategist Garry South. "Barack Obama has outraised her substantially, he's won more states, more pledged delegates, and is ahead in the popular vote. It's obvious he's outperformed her."

Indeed, Obama managed to outpace Clinton through a period that tested his mettle and political skills more than any other in the 15-month campaign. In a stretch that pitted Clinton's gritty determination against Obama's calm fortitude, the Illinois senator prevailed.

To be sure, Obama is still struggling to win some demographic groups, notably blue-collar white voters, who are a key component of the Democratic base.

Among whites without college degrees, Clinton outdid Obama by 64 percent to 35 percent in Indiana, and 71 percent to 26 percent in North Carolina. The New York senator and her surrogates have trumpeted that advantage, hoping to persuade the so-called superdelegates likely to decide the race will that she would be the stronger Democratic candidate in the general election.

Seeking to broaden her advantage with that group, Clinton fashioned herself as the champion of the working class, railing against Wall Street "money grubbers" and promoting a summer federal gas tax holiday widely panned by economists and many Democrats.

Obama denounced Clinton's gas tax proposal as an unabashed pander. Clinton aides were giddy, feeling that they had drawn Obama into an argument over the economy, which has long been viewed as her strong suit.

Obama was also forced to contend with the re-emergence of his controversial former pastor, Jeremiah Wright, who made incendiary statements at a Washington press conference last week. Among other things, he suggested the U.S. government may have developed the AIDS virus to infect the black community and had invited the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks.

Exit polls showed the Wright imbroglio did influence about half the voters in both states as they weighed which candidate to choose.

Yet none of that shook the fundamentals of the race, as the results Tuesday demonstrated. Obama remains ahead of Clinton in every measure, and the final jury — superdelegates — have been trending his way, even as he charted rough seas. His strong showing in North Carolina and Indiana will undoubtedly speed up that pace.

Clinton, meanwhile, is low on cash and her anemic performance Tuesday means she may not be able to rely on a surge in Internet fundraising that she saw after winning primaries in Pennsylvania, Ohio and Texas. She will meet with superdelegates Wednesday and attend an evening fundraiser in Washington — both key tests of her chances going forward.

She also continues to be dogged by an "honest gap" — hardly a strong suit in making the case to superdelegates that she is the more electable candidate. Exit polls in North Carolina found just 49 percent of voters believe Clinton is honest and trustworthy, compared to 71 percent for Obama. In Indiana, 54 percent said Clinton is honest, while 66 percent said Obama is.

Her aides insist she will press anew for a resolution to the disputed contests in Michigan and Florida, both of which she won, but whose results were voided because the primaries were moved in violation of Democratic Party rules.

Anticipating those efforts, Obama campaign manager David Plouffe sent a memo to superdelegates reminding them of the math. He said Clinton would need to win 68 percent of the remaining delegates to win the nomination — an extremely unlikely scenario, made harder by her poor performance Tuesday.

"With the Clinton path to the nomination getting even narrower, we expect new and wildly creative scenarios to emerge in the coming days. While those scenarios may be entertaining, the are not legitimate and will not be considered legitimate by this campaign or millions of supporters, volunteers and donors."

At least one undecided superdelegate saw Clinton nearing the end of her game as well.

"Senator Clinton did not get out of the night what she needed," said North Carolina Rep. Brad Miller. "To use a basketball analogy, she traded baskets. And she needed to do much better than that this late in the contest with her down 150 or 160 pledged delegates."

___

[Sheriff Uling 3]

I am interested in watching the drama unfold as Sen Clinton stays in the race. Although Sen. Clinton and Sen. Obama are attempting to keep the wheels on the democratic party (as a unified party) during their speeches yesterday, I might have to agree with some of the pundits (only in part) that this intense battle may hurt the democratic party (at least in the short run). Time will tell...

[one...two...tree 2,762]

I am interested in watching the drama unfold as Sen Clinton stays in the race. Although Sen. Clinton and Sen. Obama are attempting to keep the wheels on the democratic party (as a unified party) during their speeches yesterday, I might have to agree with some of the pundits (only in part) that this intense battle may hurt the democratic party (at least in the short run). Time will tell...

In last night's speech, Hillary said she will throw her support behind whoever is the nominee because she wants more than anything, for a Democrat to win the White House. There will be enough political pressure for her to not fight this all the way to the Convention if she has no reasonable argument....which so far, she has none to make.

[Sheriff Uling 3]

I am interested in watching the drama unfold as Sen Clinton stays in the race. Although Sen. Clinton and Sen. Obama are attempting to keep the wheels on the democratic party (as a unified party) during their speeches yesterday, I might have to agree with some of the pundits (only in part) that this intense battle may hurt the democratic party (at least in the short run). Time will tell...

In last night's speech, Hillary said she will throw her support behind whoever is the nominee because she wants more than anything, for a Democrat to win the White House. There will be enough political pressure for her to not fight this all the way to the Convention if she has no reasonable argument....which so far, she has none to make.

Did you hear the grumbling in the crowd when she made that statement? It was like the old snickers commercials ... "Wanna get away?"

Or was that southwest airline... I forget...

Edited May 7, 2008 by Sheriff Uling

[one...two...tree 2,762]

I am interested in watching the drama unfold as Sen Clinton stays in the race. Although Sen. Clinton and Sen. Obama are attempting to keep the wheels on the democratic party (as a unified party) during their speeches yesterday, I might have to agree with some of the pundits (only in part) that this intense battle may hurt the democratic party (at least in the short run). Time will tell...

In last night's speech, Hillary said she will throw her support behind whoever is the nominee because she wants more than anything, for a Democrat to win the White House. There will be enough political pressure for her to not fight this all the way to the Convention if she has no reasonable argument....which so far, she has none to make.

Did you hear the grumbling in the crowd when she made that statement? It was like the old snickers commercials ... "Wanna get away?"

Or was that southwest airline... I forget...

LOL...I didn't hear that, but I thought her speech was good, as if she's at peace with the realization that this race is all but over for her. Obama's speech was amazing...people like him don't come around too often in history - he will be our next president...and he'll be one of the greatest...IMO of course.

[Sheriff Uling 3]

I am interested in watching the drama unfold as Sen Clinton stays in the race. Although Sen. Clinton and Sen. Obama are attempting to keep the wheels on the democratic party (as a unified party) during their speeches yesterday, I might have to agree with some of the pundits (only in part) that this intense battle may hurt the democratic party (at least in the short run). Time will tell...

In last night's speech, Hillary said she will throw her support behind whoever is the nominee because she wants more than anything, for a Democrat to win the White House. There will be enough political pressure for her to not fight this all the way to the Convention if she has no reasonable argument....which so far, she has none to make.

Did you hear the grumbling in the crowd when she made that statement? It was like the old snickers commercials ... "Wanna get away?"

Or was that southwest airline... I forget...

LOL...I didn't hear that, but I thought her speech was good, as if she's at peace with the realization that this race is all but over for her. Obama's speech was amazing...people like him don't come around too often in history - he will be our next president...and he'll be one of the greatest...IMO of course.

Gary must not be around today or he would be all over you for writting that...

[GaryC 7]

I am interested in watching the drama unfold as Sen Clinton stays in the race. Although Sen. Clinton and Sen. Obama are attempting to keep the wheels on the democratic party (as a unified party) during their speeches yesterday, I might have to agree with some of the pundits (only in part) that this intense battle may hurt the democratic party (at least in the short run). Time will tell...

In last night's speech, Hillary said she will throw her support behind whoever is the nominee because she wants more than anything, for a Democrat to win the White House. There will be enough political pressure for her to not fight this all the way to the Convention if she has no reasonable argument....which so far, she has none to make.

Did you hear the grumbling in the crowd when she made that statement? It was like the old snickers commercials ... "Wanna get away?"

Or was that southwest airline... I forget...

LOL...I didn't hear that, but I thought her speech was good, as if she's at peace with the realization that this race is all but over for her. Obama's speech was amazing...people like him don't come around too often in history - he will be our next president...and he'll be one of the greatest...IMO of course.

Gary must not be around today or he would be all over you for writting that...

Hehe, Steven is having an Obama wet dream. let him. I will let Steven and R post their ding dong posts. It will make the horse laugh I will give them in Aug even sweeter. I watched the speech that Hillary gave today. She has no intention of dropping out. She will now turn the screws to get FL and MI seated. She has already started working on the SD's by tearing down Obama and hinting at an "October surprise". She will try every dirty trick that the Clintons are famous for. I agree that Obama will be the candidate but by the time the dust settles he will be so bloodied and damaged he will not have anything left for the general. Hillary is the best friend McCain ever had.

[Mr. Big Dog 10,747]

I watched the speech that Hillary gave today. She has no intention of dropping out.

Her intentions soon won't matter. Her lack of funding and support, however, will. But you keep on dreaming your wet dream, Gary.

[GaryC 7]

I watched the speech that Hillary gave today. She has no intention of dropping out.

Her intentions soon won't matter. Her lack of funding and support, however, will. But you keep on dreaming your wet dream, Gary.

Keep on underestimating her R. She already has loaned herself 6 mil. She says she will loan herself even more so she can continue. She will break herself and Bill and take the DNC with her. Just watch.

[Mr. Big Dog 10,747]

I watched the speech that Hillary gave today. She has no intention of dropping out.

Her intentions soon won't matter. Her lack of funding and support, however, will. But you keep on dreaming your wet dream, Gary.

Keep on underestimating her R. She already has loaned herself 6 mil. She says she will loan herself even more so she can continue. She will break herself and Bill and take the DNC with her. Just watch.

Yes, and they start tapping into Bill's money that way. Which means he'll have to disclose where exactly it came from. Such disclosure would most likely do her candidacy in right quick. They know that. Which is why they have avoided to disclose any such thing. Try as they may, they lack the support and funding and, quite frankly, she starts to look and sound quite pathetic. Time is working in Obama's favor. And time is what Hillary is rapidly running out of.

[GaryC 7]

I watched the speech that Hillary gave today. She has no intention of dropping out.

Her intentions soon won't matter. Her lack of funding and support, however, will. But you keep on dreaming your wet dream, Gary.

Keep on underestimating her R. She already has loaned herself 6 mil. She says she will loan herself even more so she can continue. She will break herself and Bill and take the DNC with her. Just watch.

Yes, and they start tapping into Bill's money that way. Which means he'll have to disclose where exactly it came from. Such disclosure would most likely do her candidacy in right quick. They know that. Which is why they have avoided to disclose any such thing. Try as they may, they lack the support and funding and, quite frankly, she starts to look and sound quite pathetic. Time is working in Obama's favor. And time is what Hillary is rapidly running out of.

Obama will win the nomination. I have no doubt of that. But Hillary will go kicking and screaming all the way to the convention. It wouldn't matter if every dem in America personally told her to pack it in. I will not matter if they end up broke. She will not stop because she thinks she is entiteled to the presidency.

[w¡n9Nµ7 §£@¥€r 123]

Gary, you may be right.

Here's a comment I ran into on a liberal blog, which stuck with me... I just dug it up now on reading your post:

Obama is the one who split the party, by running against her when she was the presumptive nominee and even the Right was figuring out how to reconcile itself to a Clinton presidency.

I wonder how widespread that feeling really is.

[GaryC 7]

Gary, you may be right.

Here's a comment I ran into on a liberal blog, which stuck with me... I just dug it up now on reading your post:

Obama is the one who split the party, by running against her when she was the presumptive nominee and even the Right was figuring out how to reconcile itself to a Clinton presidency.

I wonder how widespread that feeling really is.

Far deeper than the Obama supporters realize. A large number of Clinton supporters will not vote for him. With elections turning on a few percentage points it will make all the difference.

[w¡n9Nµ7 §£@¥€r 123]

We'll see. I'm sure Hill is a bit of a diva and I know some of her supporters are, but I doubt it's that widespread.

[Trompe le Monde 1,107]

Gary, you may be right.

Here's a comment I ran into on a liberal blog, which stuck with me... I just dug it up now on reading your post:

Obama is the one who split the party, by running against her when she was the presumptive nominee and even the Right was figuring out how to reconcile itself to a Clinton presidency.

I wonder how widespread that feeling really is.

This is something I hear from a lot of people I talk to - people who like Obama but felt he was "not ready" after only 3 years on the national stage. Maybe he will pull it off, but like Gary, I do have my doubts. I have a feeling Obama supporters are going to think the "negative" campaign Clinton ran will be the halcyon days