Forcasted Population Trends if Immigration Trends Continue

[peejay 327]

U.S. Latino Population Projected To Soar

Forecast Predicts Tripling by 2050

By N.C. Aizenman

Washington Post Staff Writer

Tuesday, February 12, 2008

The number of Hispanics in the United States will triple by 2050 and represent nearly 30 percent of the population if current trends continue, according to a report released yesterday.

The study by the nonpartisan, Washington-based Pew Research Center also found that nearly one in five Americans will be foreign-born in 2050, compared with about one in eight today. Asian Americans, representing 5 percent of the population today, are expected to boost their share to 9 percent.

Blacks are projected to maintain their current 13 percent share. Non-Hispanic whites will still be the nation's largest group, the report says, but would drop from 67 percent of U.S. residents to 47 percent.

Overall, by 2050 the U.S. population is projected to increase by 47 percent, from 296 million in 2005 to 438 million. Newly arriving immigrants would account for 47 percent of the rise, and their U.S.-born children and grandchildren would represent another 35 percent.

Authors of the study, which roughly tracks similar analyses by the Census Bureau and other sources, cautioned that their findings are projections based on immigration and demographic trends that may change.

Nonetheless, the report offers an intriguing picture of the possible long-term effects of the immigration surge that began after 1965, when Congress abolished a quota system that had nearly ended immigration from non-European countries since the 1920s.

Because of a declining birthrate among U.S.-born women, immigrants and their U.S.-born children and grandchildren already account for most of the nation's population increase over the past several decades. The study projects that by 2025, the foreign-born share of the population will surpass the peak recorded during the waves of immigration that occurred between 1860 and 1920, when foreign-born residents represented as much as 15 percent of the U.S. population.

But the study's authors said that immigration will do little to offset the more than doubling of the nation's elderly population as baby boomers age. By 2050, people older than 65 will make up 19 percent of the population, compared with 12 percent in 2005, while the share of working-age people will shrink from 63 percent to 58 percent.

This translates into a sharp rise in the "dependency ratio" of working-age people, compared with the number of young and elderly. Today, there are about 59 children or elderly people per 100 working-age adults. By 2050, that figure is expected to increase to 72 dependents per 100 working-age adults.

Though advocates of immigration have suggested that the newcomers can help offset the pressure boomers put on Social Security, the report indicates that even if immigration were reduced by 50 percent, the dependency ratio would change only from 72 dependents to 75 per 100 working-age adults.

Those who oppose allowing immigration to continue at its current pace interpreted the findings as vindication. "These numbers underline the fact that immigration is not a solution to the aging of the population," said Mark Krikorian of the Center for Immigration Studies, which favors further limits on immigration. "And then we need to ask ourselves if we want the 100 million more people immigration will bring. Do you want 80 million more cars on the road, or 40 million homes occupying what's now open space?"

At a news conference to announce the report yesterday, co-authors D'Vera Cohn and Jeffrey S. Passel declined to draw policy conclusions. They also noted that even if their projections are accurate, the social implications may be different by 2050: Given the high rate of intermarriage between Latinos and members of other ethnic groups, many descendants of today's Latinos may not even identify themselves as such.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/conte...8021101294.html

[w¡n9Nµ7 §£@¥€r 123]

By 2050, people older than 65 will make up 19 percent of the population, compared with 12 percent in 2005, while the share of working-age people will shrink from 63 percent to 58 percent.

This translates into a sharp rise in the "dependency ratio" of working-age people, compared with the number of young and elderly. Today, there are about 59 children or elderly people per 100 working-age adults. By 2050, that figure is expected to increase to 72 dependents per 100 working-age adults.

And that is the real demographic time bomb.

[Dan J 277]

By 2050, people older than 65 will make up 19 percent of the population, compared with 12 percent in 2005, while the share of working-age people will shrink from 63 percent to 58 percent.

This translates into a sharp rise in the "dependency ratio" of working-age people, compared with the number of young and elderly. Today, there are about 59 children or elderly people per 100 working-age adults. By 2050, that figure is expected to increase to 72 dependents per 100 working-age adults.

And that is the real demographic time bomb.

Japan is already going through that.

[w¡n9Nµ7 §£@¥€r 123]

By 2050, people older than 65 will make up 19 percent of the population, compared with 12 percent in 2005, while the share of working-age people will shrink from 63 percent to 58 percent.

This translates into a sharp rise in the "dependency ratio" of working-age people, compared with the number of young and elderly. Today, there are about 59 children or elderly people per 100 working-age adults. By 2050, that figure is expected to increase to 72 dependents per 100 working-age adults.

And that is the real demographic time bomb.

Japan is already going through that.

Yup.

[peejay 327]

By 2050, people older than 65 will make up 19 percent of the population, compared with 12 percent in 2005, while the share of working-age people will shrink from 63 percent to 58 percent.

This translates into a sharp rise in the "dependency ratio" of working-age people, compared with the number of young and elderly. Today, there are about 59 children or elderly people per 100 working-age adults. By 2050, that figure is expected to increase to 72 dependents per 100 working-age adults.

And that is the real demographic time bomb.

That has been one of the many lies and myths to get the American people suckered into mass legal and illegal immigration...that it was going to make up for the aging baby boomers. What? Immigrants don't age?

I've posted these graphs numerous times, but people don't seem to get it until they see where we are going unless US immigration policy is reduced to saner and sustainable levels. It's way too high, but if you point that out you get attacked as xenaphobic, racist, uncompassionate, etc., etc. Bla-bla-bla!

The point of this graph is to show the pre-1965 population when immigration was quite low. In 1965 immigration laws were revamped and have led to our present situation.

Congress slammed the door to immigration in 1924. From 1924 to 1965 the USA had very little immigration. It's pretty obvious where we are going if things don't change.

I think the time has come again to significantly reduce immigration numbers. IMO we do not need another 140 million people in the USA in the next 42 years through liberal immigration policies. This does absolutely nothing for the vast majority of Americans except to deteriorate our quality of life. Mass immigration is driven by the corporations and their beneficiaries in Congress.

[Peikko 1,575]

Mass immigration is driven by the corporations and their beneficiaries in Congress.

If this is true, and it may well be then surely it's ####### about face to go after the illegal immigrants? Would it not make more sense to address the power of the corporations? I don't think that'll go down too well with the 'laissez faire' economists though.

[Mags 112]

The UK has raised the retirement age to try to combat the working to retired ratio. Will it work? Who knows!