RBAL_TN

We are planning on doing the 'courthouse' wedding as soon as she gets here, but the formal wedding is planned back in the UK this coming November. Just need to make sure we have the AOS in place before then, but I think we should be good time wise.

Well I think that some of us will most likely be approved in Feb. since almost 50% of Sept. filers are approved....so....October filers, come on down!!!!!!!

I agree. None of the approvals have come in strict sequential order. Instead they have been in batches that seem to span a 2-3 week time period. Its all going to come down to where each of our files were placed and which box gets grabbed.

I think the chances are good that we'll see a good portion of Oct filers approved in Feb.

I was just thinking about the extrapolations that were done a couple of months ago RBAL_TN. I believe you were saying the average would have been around mid-January (90 days out from NOA1), and I was scratching my head asking "How'd you come up with that?"

At that time I was thinking mid-March, at the earliest, to mid-April. Now I believe our thinking is aligned; October will begin popping mid-Feb to mid-March.

Happy wait.

At the time, I did think we'd see mid-Jan, but then VSC seemingly took a month or so off and that skewed my calculations. Now I agree, mid-Feb we'll start seeing much more Oct approvals.

I must say, I was a bit despondent over the slow pace that Vermont had a few weeks ago - but they really seem to be picking up the pace lately with 75 VJ approvals in last 3 weeks. They haven't had a run like this since last winter.

I'm feeling better about a mid-Feb approval if this pace keeps up.

I don't know if I had any touches on my case, I'm still not able to check it online, it annoys me so bad eventhough its not really necessary but I would still like to see what's going on

I check mine daily - no touches yet, but I'm not overly confident that the website remains updated due to all the problems many have had.

What a wacky system! They are literally processing July through to November all at the same time (with some poor folks stuck in April)!!

Yes its a wacky system alright, but since adjudicators process a box of 50+/- at a time, I can picture a box jumping the queue a bit on occasion. To me, as long as things are moving again - I'm happy

hello VJ,got our NOA2 today in mail..

WOW - Congrats!!! This is the first Nov from VSC isn't it? You must have had some really good file placement on the shelves up there !!

This is awesome news!

Anyone else getting excited about all the updated approvals on igor's today?? Or am I just being too optimistic?

I'm right with you. Seeing how the week of Jan 12 so the most VSC approvals (32) since March 2008 - I'm hoping that trend continues!! At this rate, we might see ours in mid-Feb

I have been trying what was on the NOA1 as well as what was on the back of the check cashed I am sure its right, it starts with EAC and its a total of 13 numbers. o god is this bad??

It should be a total of 13 characters beginning with the letters EAC and 10 numerical digits (ex EAC1234567890). I originally misread some of ours as "O" instead of "0" (zero).

If that doesn't work - I would call.

Might be a typo

I know - thus the smirk

...every time my 18-yr-old is looking for daddy all over the house, it breaks my heart....

18 YEAR old?

Yeah, I agree. It shouldn't have an impact, but was just curious as we have not seen a transistion for 8 years and how this would affect the agencies, if at all. I hope we see a flood of new noa2 approvals the next couple of weeks from vsc...no more excuses...holidays are done, inaugration is done...time to get back to work!

A new administration would not have any immediate impact. Remember, effecting change in a government agency = slower than Vermont molasses in January There "may" be changes in time - but I haven't seen any indication that this is a priority by this administration.

Hello! My name is Sara and im from the US, and me and my fiancee Micahel from the UK have filled for the Fiancee visa. We have been waiting now for 5 months since our first Notification and are starting to get nervous about the steps to come since hopefully we will be earring something soon!!

My main concern is the medical exam. My fiancee was hosplitized for anxiety about two years back. He also has a history of using drugs. He has fully recovered and has not had any issues for a long time, and on his record it only shows that he was treated for anxitey, and hasnt touched any drugs for years. But I am just so terrified that this will cause him to fail his medical exam and in case cause them to deny our visa!!

Does anyone have any experience with failed medicals? Or know if this is gonna be an issue for us!? Any advice would be amazing!! Thanks so much!

*Sara*

No personal experience myself, but I did find this link helpful

http://www.visajourney.com/forums/index.ph...mp;page=medical

I wonder if any petitions are lost in here.....

Michigan Postal Hoarding Mail

Thankfully, I sent mine UPS

Still, to horde that much mail - wow

Wait...."hubby" on a K1? (checking to make sure I am looking at right forum)

Anyway congrats!!!

If it means we will all be approved faster, I'm all for it!

I'll second that!

I understand that this is the Vermont Thread....I was just keeping all october filers in the loop....im just hoping that vermont filers will start getting approved like the california center is starting too. im wishing everyone the best of luck (but yes, i did know where i was posting)

First off, congrats - sincerely!

But....it's kind of bittersweet for us Oct VSC filers seeing all the Oct CSC filers getting approved too. We'd love nothing more than to be getting our NOA2s as well. It's just disappointing to see people announce in this thread that they were approved, only to find out its not from VSC where we are all focused. Most of us follow both threads - but would also still keep an prefer to keep the progress of each center separated. Otherwise it could be passed for gloating which I am sure was never your intention.

But really, Congrats again!

Oh yeah I forgot about the expedites.

On another note, sometimes you have to remember that there are probably a heck of a lot of people who have filed but never discovered VJ. It could be that VSC is cranking out a similar number of approvals to CSC but they just aren't being documented.

I thought of that too. They could be on similar paces, but just lopsided here on VJ.

USCIS doesn't break out K1 stats or even individual SC performance in its monthly reports, but their current trend is showing applications received down and approvals outpacing them. But that's for more than 3 million applications of all types - not merely K1s.

USCIS September 2008 report

I'm still keeping my hopes up for a mid to late Jan or early Feb NOA2 however. Gotta think positive.

are there september filers already getting approvals from vermont??? i dont see any but from CSC yeah there are

As of this morning, VJ is showing Sept filers with NOA2 approvals at 9 for CSC and 4 for VSC. Of those, 1 from CSC and all 4 from VSC already have interviews, so I think they are all expedited processing cases.

Looks like VSC is really lagging behind lately, even looking at the August numbers with CSC having 37 NOA2 out of 86 and VSC having 12 out of 111.

VSC had a good stretch there for a while, but seem to be losing steam. Sure hope they can turn things around soon.

The idea is that if VJ can provide the same data that people are creating their own datasets for, then not only will the VJ data likely be more accurate (more scrutiny by more eyeballs) but there will be a larger sample set.

That doesn't make any sense. This isn't about changing the data, but fine tuning how its used. Using a rolling average is a lot more accurate than an annual one.

Whatever you can do to stop members from compiling their own spreadsheets and data will be useful. Especially if it stops them from relying on the data input by those who read those particular threads. Their data is skewed because it only represents those interested enough to participate. At least data gathered from timelines is somewhat more comprehensive.

On what basis would that be detrimental? No one is expecting the data to be perfect simply due to the varying degrees of user input. However, looking at data in various ways can account for some of the discrepancies and smooth out the rough spots. At the very least it would provide some insights and targets rather than blind progression.

bars might be useful yes. I will try that out and update.

Is the raw data available anywhere per chance? I'm not looking for personal info, but the data from timeline results. I've been manually inputting my own criteria and playing with rolling 3 month averages to narrow down some dates. For example - http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=pSr...Hq2E1EiDWYrGUHw

Having the raw data would be easier to update, but wouldn't need any other the personal details. Just the results.

Figured it doesn't hurt to ask.

Also there is a slight smoothing function on the plot so the %'s will be slightly different than the raw data (but very close).

That was my first impression as well to the chart. Would it be better as a bar graph instead rather than a line plot? You could add a 3mo rolling average trend line as well - if so inclined Otherwise, I think this would be a good addition.

Just wondering how everyone's wedding planning is going, and when are you hoping to have the wedding?

We are planning a simple legal ceremony as soon as she gets here, but planning on a formal ceremony next November back at the lake district in the UK. Already have the church, venue, and she has her dress. Just the minor things still yet to get (like a visa for example) ;-)

One thing that I have noticed is the the VJ timelines adjusts according to what date you send your petition and not when you received your NOA1. This makes our timeline (and everyone elses) misleading. We sent our petition on September 25th and it took longer to get to Vermont as it was posted from overseas. The NOA1 was then issued three weeks later. To test this I changed my sent date to a couple of days before our NOA1 was sent to reflect if Tom had sent it within the US and it pulled our date forwards by about two weeks (mid feb). I then put my sent date back to what it was and changed my NOA1 date and the estimated approval date stayed the same as it is at the moment (mid march).

I definately don't trust the timelines now.

I agree. VSC doesn't care when you sent it - only when they received it and when its entered into their system. Like you discovered, the data here on VJ goes by the sent date, that's why I broke it down starting at the NOA1 date. But even then, that could also be misleading as I'm sure some people may inadvertently enter their received date and not the official date on the notice. That alone could skew the date by weeks.

Still, I am not knocking VJ at all. I think its a great tool for estimating and I applaud the hard work someone put in to program it. Would be nice if you could set your own parameters however on the estimates. This is why I created my own.