toddandhien

The thing is I could take 100 trips and she could give correct info on all the questions but they could deny just because they feel like it. That was the reason for going to Thailand

Yes, but we all face that same situation. I believe that keeping things as simple and understandable as possible is the best approach.

Would be nice if NVC could just say we are selecting 15% of all K1/K3 cases at random for additional screening. Expect this process to take 6-8 weeks. Just setting expectations for people would help to reduce the anxiety a little...

Q: Is NVC picking on either CSC or VSC cases predominantly?

A: The 36 cases are composed of 23 CSC, (64%) and 13 VCS (36%). Again, if we discard the early 2007 cases the breakdown is 61% CSC, 39% VSC. Somewhat more CSC, but both USCIS centers are well represented in the "stuck in AP at NVC" status. I don't think they're picking on one center more than the other.

This is real good work. Well done.

Regarding the bolded Q/A above, 61/39 would appear significant. However, if you could look at the data and assess the overall CSC/VSC ratio and compare that to the 61/39, you could get a real assessment of whether they are picking on one of the service centers. I suspect just by looking at the postings here, there are more folks going through CSC than VSC, so probably OK.

You're quite right! Good eye.

I implicitly assumed that there are more CSC than VSC in the general population, and hence I glossed over the 61/39 ratio.

So, here is the actual breakdown of service centers in all of the 2705 records I'm analyzing for 2007/2008:

1479 California

990 Vermont

112 Nebraska

124 Texas

2705 TOTAL

As an aside .... can anyone explain what the Nebraska and Texas centers are doing here? I thought all K1 files are handled at either California or Vermont?

However if we ignore those, than the relative proportions of CSC and VSC to the general population of records is as follows:

CSC: 1479/(1479+990) = 60%

VSC: 990/(1479+990) = 40%

OK. CSC/VSC is about a 60/40 split in the general population, so NVC AP stats of 61/39 don't reflect any bias.

To all who have offered thanks.... aw shucks tweren't nothin'... seriously it was either do this, or work on my tax return

Wow, that worked out even closer than I had hoped. That tells me that the AP selections are truly random, which would work out to statistically mimic the population over time. Thanks for doing that. Next valentine's day you will have something else to occupy your time...

OK, here is some more analysis.

I did several more things.

First, I went back to all the data for the past two years - 2007 and 2008.

I also played around with the threshold, looking at NVC times of > 10 days, 15 days, 20 days, 40 days.

In all cases, the trend of a spike up in Nov, Dec 2008 is apparent. However it is most dramatic when looking at > 40 days, so that's what I'm presenting here.

It turns out there are 36 K-1 applications over the past 2 years 2007 and 2008 which took > 40 days at NVC

These 36 are the "stuck in NVC AP" cases.

22 of these 36 (61%) occurred in the 2 months of Nov/Dec 2008.

Also, there is duplication and I believe suspect data in the earliest records from 2007. Four of those records are reported from China and I believe are duplicates. Tossing those means 22/33 = 67% are in the last 2 months. In any event it's clear SOMETHING is going on at NVC recently.

Q: What is the average wait time in NVC for those who get stuck?

A: The average wait time for all 36 is 62 days. However the suspect records from early 2007 had wait times > 100 days. If we don't count those, then the average wait time is 49 days. (Uncanny! That's exactly what our in-thread estimate has been!)

Q: Is NVC picking on either CSC or VSC cases predominantly?

A: The 36 cases are composed of 23 CSC, (64%) and 13 VCS (36%). Again, if we discard the early 2007 cases the breakdown is 61% CSC, 39% VSC. Somewhat more CSC, but both USCIS centers are well represented in the "stuck in AP at NVC" status. I don't think they're picking on one center more than the other.

Q. What beneficiary countries are getting stuck? Are certain countries likelier to get pulled into NVC AP?

A. It doesn't seem that way. There are 1st and 3rd world countries represented, as follows (parenthesis indicates number of cases):

Albania (1) Australian (1) Brazil (1) Canada (1) China (4 - these include the probable duplicates)

Colombia (1) Croatia (1) Egypt (1) India (1) Mexico (1) New Zealand (1) Nigeria (1) Philippines (9)

Romania (1) Russia (2) Rwanda (1) South Korea (1) Sweden (1) Ukraine (3) United Kingdom (2) Vietnam (1)

Philippines has a high number but I think it has the majority of K-1 cases to begin with (at least on VJ)

Q. After finally getting released from NVC hell, how long will it take till my petition gets to the Consulate?

A. The answer seems to be: quickly: If we discount the early 2007 records, the average is 7 days from "NVC Left" until "Consulate Received". The early 2007 records had counts > 100 days, which is partly why I suspect that data.

Q. Can I see the names of those who got stuck? And see where I am on the "all time list"?

A. Yup. See the first attachment. You'll see some common names there like badgerella (51 days) and me&him (that's cdneh) at 52 days. They're not the "winners" however: take pity on poor Andy&Kaitlyn (98 days) or Misty&Eric (83 days). However all those date back to 2007 or early 2008. Everyone who's gotten stuck in Nov/Dec 2008 has been released in 52 days or less (Yes, cdneh does hold that record).

Q.What about K3?

A.. Sorry, I haven't analyzed K3's any further. I think the data will be similar, but (a) there's less of it to do a thorough survey (b ) I'm a K-1 so that's where my interest lies, sorry. If you want to see K3 data, let me know and I can take a crack at it.

Q. I don't like text and numbers. Don't you have any pictures to show me?

A. Yup. I've attached a chart showing 2007-2008 data. It clearly shows the dramatic spike up in Nov/Dec for the number of files held up in AP at NVC. Especially if you toss out the Jan-07 bar, it's pretty obvious SOMETHING NEW is going on at NVC.

Q. What does this all mean anyway?

A. 42

Q. Why did you do this?

A. I was pretty bored I guess. Actually, I am planning to write a letter to NVC with this data and demand some explanation for what is going on there. And if I don't get satisfaction from them, I think I'll submit this to my 2 US Senators and my Congressman. Somebody in authority needs to be aware of this.

Q. Will it do any good?

A. Of course not.

This is real good work. Well done.

Regarding the bolded Q/A above, 61/39 would appear significant. However, if you could look at the data and assess the overall CSC/VSC ratio and compare that to the 61/39, you could get a real assessment of whether they are picking on one of the service centers. I suspect just by looking at the postings here, there are more folks going through CSC than VSC, so probably OK.

We had our baby boy almost 1 month ago , hopefully everything go smooth with the baby as our biggest proof showing how serious we are

Since you the US citizen father your fiance can file for a CRBA and get the baby it's US citizenship.

yes i booked an appointment already at the end of May. They said i have to bring the baby along, so im going to be there for both of them on that day.

Good luck

I'm just wondering if they're going speak english to my fiance on her interview date at the US embassy in HCMC. She doesn't speak english at all, im just wondering if this going to be a problem? please help

please fill in your timeline

i signed up for my timeline already, dont know why its not showing

It is showing now. can you update status? Do you have interview date yet?

I'm just wondering if they're going speak english to my fiance on her interview date at the US embassy in HCMC. She doesn't speak english at all, im just wondering if this going to be a problem? please help

What language do you two use to communicate?

we communicate only Vietnamese

Are you Vietnamese? If so, she can interview in Vietnamese and you will be fine.

I'm just wondering if they're going speak english to my fiance on her interview date at the US embassy in HCMC. She doesn't speak english at all, im just wondering if this going to be a problem? please help

please fill in your timeline

I'm just wondering if they're going speak english to my fiance on her interview date at the US embassy in HCMC. She doesn't speak english at all, im just wondering if this going to be a problem? please help

What language do you two use to communicate?

Mine was a self stick visa. When I entered they stamped it. I remember when I left I handed it to the lady and she was doing something and she handed it back and I placed it in my front jacket pocket and moved on. When I got to Seould and had a day to sight see I went through customs there and noticed there was no stamp in it from VN. (I went through HCMC.) I have been to many countries in my lifetime and never not had a stamp in my passport even going through a pass through if staying long enough to leave the airport.

I asked my Fiancee's Uncle and he said that they usually do not unless you ask for them to. He also told me that the embassy could always ask the VN to look up if I had been there and they will send part of that visa to them. (Do they really do this? I don't know and he may have talking out his azz)

Anyway I just sent the certified main page of the passport along with my other proof of meeting and I seemed to be ok. The embassy seems to be aware of them doing this so all should be fine. It is not like one has no other proof to show. Somehow I was able to pull all of this off and get a visa and if I can do it then most others can also.

Just curious if you got a landing visa or if you got it from the embassy in San Francisco?

OK, I've gotten three visas, and all of them have been permanently affixed to my passport. The first two were single entries and the last one was a multi. Where are you getting visas that aren't glued in? I know there are more options now than there used to be. I physically sent my passport to San Francisco each time. Sorry for the stupid question.

An afterthought: Could this be a difference between POEs? I've always come in through Noi Bai Airport just outside of Hanoi. Them Commies up there LOVE stamps. I can't imagine they would pass up the opportunity to stamp your passport, permanently affixed visa or not.

I have gotten 4 visas to VN since October, 2007. All of them through the embassy in San Francisco where I sent my passport. The first was a single entry and was not affixed. The next two were multi-entry and were affixed, which at the time I thought explained the difference. Then I got my last multi-entry in October, 2008. That one was not affixed.

I can't understand what is driving the difference, and honestly after Hien gets her visa I won't care. But for now, I will continue to get multi-entry visas just to be sure that they do not take it when I leave VN. The worst part of the loose visa is the constant worry that I will lose it somehow.

I always enter VN through Ho Chi Minh so maybe they handle the visas differently? I think we here in America tend to look for the logic in everything. If I have learned anything in the last 16 months it is not to look for everything in VN to make sense. It just is. Maybe they happened to run out of self-stick visas when my last one went through so they used an old paper one? Who knows?!

I have this concern They interview My fiancee on 11/06/08 and they said she didn't know a bunch of stuff but she did. Now we are getting married on 02/28/09 that is 16 weeks and 2 days later. I wonder if they will come back and say she didn't know anything about me and yet I married her 16 weeks later so that could work against us. I think it would be better to hold off on the wedding for 6 months however we have known each other for 22 months and thats a long time to date somebody. This time I will have more evedince as in chat logs showing communication also another trip to marry her. I wonder if we wait 6 months to file after we marry if that will help it?

I would pose that question to your attorney. But if you can handle the 1.5 year wait to get a visa, visiting again now and then coming again for the marriage may make some sense in demonstrating a bona fide relationship.

You can't outrun a computer database. That might of worked 20 years ago when things weren't as automated but you have to address your issues.

My fiancee is not Thailand but she lived in a Thailand refugee camp for 4 years.

One of the reason the consular listed on the denial was that my fiancee didn't know where I went to school however that wasn't even asked at the interview. How do you address that? There are 4 examples listed on my denial of this same situation. That is the reason for taking it to Thailand.

Let me give you an honest assessment based on everything that I have read in your posts. I recall that you had one visit and limited pictures. This was further complicated by the fact that you were engaged very shortly after meeting in person for the first time. These are big red flags for the HCM Consulate. I believe that you were going to get denied based on your circumstances regardless of what your fiancee said or did not say. However, her language complications did not help. And she was probably given a semi-standard rejection letter that the CO did not fully edit properly (that's why it mentioned the college).

The only thing you can do is to learn from this. Visit more (I would not try HCM with less than 3), get married, have lots of proof (pictures, e-mails, letters, phone calls). Get as much as possible. Once you have dispatched with the K1, file the K3 petition and build your evidence folder.

Going to Thailand is not going to change any of the underlying facts. On the contrary, you will have to answer the "why Thailand?" question and also have to deal with yet another language.

Also, the two of you should develop a list of all possible questions and practice them dozens and dozens of times. My list sits at 215 questions that I have taken from every source I could find. We practice them every single day. In English.

You said something here that I never heard before and it made some sense and that was the form letter. I was thinking it was typed up at the time of the interview. That makes sense maybe they just forgot to edit it. I hope that was the case it does restore some faith back in the system.

Thanks for that perspective

I would like to see your questions if you could provide a link or email them to me I would be greatfull.

We did correct the other stuff. Last month I started saving our chat logs and Im planning my second trip in 7 days to marry and 2 or 3 more after that including the interview. I wonder if they will think were getting married to soon second meeting I hope thats not a big red flag to them.

I hope they go by time not the actuall number of times you have met. Because we have been together 1 year 10 months and its been 14 months since we met in person however I still have a ton of evedence most of wich she brought to the interview 3 months ago. Maybe we should wait 6 months and pile up the evedence before we file. We hired a photographer for the wedding and somebody to film it. I will talk with the attorny and see if waiting before we file will help

Happy to send you the list of questions. I can put it in a pdf. PM me your e-mail address

You can't outrun a computer database. That might of worked 20 years ago when things weren't as automated but you have to address your issues.

My fiancee is not Thailand but she lived in a Thailand refugee camp for 4 years.

One of the reason the consular listed on the denial was that my fiancee didn't know where I went to school however that wasn't even asked at the interview. How do you address that? There are 4 examples listed on my denial of this same situation. That is the reason for taking it to Thailand.

Let me give you an honest assessment based on everything that I have read in your posts. I recall that you had one visit and limited pictures. This was further complicated by the fact that you were engaged very shortly after meeting in person for the first time. These are big red flags for the HCM Consulate. I believe that you were going to get denied based on your circumstances regardless of what your fiancee said or did not say. However, her language complications did not help. And she was probably given a semi-standard rejection letter that the CO did not fully edit properly (that's why it mentioned the college).

The only thing you can do is to learn from this. Visit more (I would not try HCM with less than 3), get married, have lots of proof (pictures, e-mails, letters, phone calls). Get as much as possible. Once you have dispatched with the K1, file the K3 petition and build your evidence folder.

Going to Thailand is not going to change any of the underlying facts. On the contrary, you will have to answer the "why Thailand?" question and also have to deal with yet another language.

Also, the two of you should develop a list of all possible questions and practice them dozens and dozens of times. My list sits at 215 questions that I have taken from every source I could find. We practice them every single day. In English.

The US Government isn't totally stupid. If your wife is a VN citizen and has always lived there and was denied a visa from there and then suddenly moves to Thailand and you petition her again from there....well what would you think? For most situations with this process just pretend you are the adjudicator and play the story out for yourself. If you have to squint at it, imagine the real adjudicator's reaction. they have seen just about every angle at this stage.

If you are to get the visa, you will have your best chance in VN. At least you will not have to explain why your wife now suddenly lives in Thailand (unless she is a Thai citizen by chance). Don't make more red flags for yourselves.

If you get the type of visa where you send off your passport to the Vietnamese embassy or consulate (which, not so long ago, was your only option), you will get a stamp in your passport.

Not necessarily with single entry visas in VN. The only country I have been to that issues visas (even from the embassy) not affixed to the passport. As I mentioned earlier, my first visa was single entry from the embassy. It was not affixed, it was kept upon my departure and they did not stamp my passport. My current multi-entry visa (again from the embassy) is not affixed and they have not been stamping my passport. I have been in and out of VN 7 times with it and they only stamp the back of the visa paper. But it thankfully is in my possession.

It happens in VN when you get a single entry visa that is not affixed to your passport. They stamp the visa and keep it. I did this on my first visit and decided that I did not like it so I got multi-entry after that.

With most multi-entry visas there, they will affix it to your passport and then stamp a page coming in and going out. My first two multi-entry visas were affixed but my last multi-entry was a loose paper which they stamped each time on the back (not in my passport) but since it was a multi-entry, they did not keep it. It will expire soon but I have it in my possession to photocopy for the interview.

Multi-entry visas to VN are expensive but they will ensure that you have the visa in your possession and, more importantly, the stamps.

Hi folks,

Been a member for several months but my first post here. Want to let you all know that our petition was approved today by VSC! There really is hope for all of you out there feeling like it will never come!!

BTW, we were 166 on the NEW Igor's List when the approval came today. VJ said adjudication between January 22 and February 9.

Thanks to everyone for making this community so valuable. On to NVC and HCMC!!!

-Todd