Tuborg

Hey all! We finally got approved October 15! On to NVC now.  Best of luck to you!

On 9/6/2022 at 10:10 AM, Simplytex said:

I see this come up both here at VJ and on other websites, where people quote the published 'Case Processing Time' for a certain SC on USCIS website while thinking that the # of months is how long it will take for their case to get processed. I don't know if mods think this is worth a sticky or not, but I'd at least like to make sure my understanding is correct and possibly help out other people in correctly interpret this information. I've tried to summarize the info provided here, which is a little hard to follow: https://egov.uscis.gov/processing-times/more-info

 

The starting point is to understand how the USCIS currently (as of this post - Sept 2022) calculates the time published on their page for I-130 applications. Most importantly, it is not some sort of "average of how long it takes cases to process". Nor is it the "processing time" calculation used for I-129F forms, which is the number of months it took for 80% of cases to be processed from their receipt date, averaged over the last 6 months. In fact, the I-130 form is one of a handful that still uses something called "Cycle time" (which is used for the dates of Form I‑129, Form I‑129CW, Form I‑130, Form I‑212, Form I‑360, Form I‑600, Form I‑600A, Form I‑601, Form I‑730, Form I‑800, Form I‑800A, and Form N‑565 - but notice not the Form I-129F.) Currently, the "cycle time" is defined as "how many months' worth of cases are awaiting a decision for a particular form." Now a rhetorical question: Why doesn't this approach make sense as a metric for us to understand I-130 cases? This is because (it seems like) the new online format for I-130 filing is 'evenly' distributing cases between service centers, even though those SC's don't process the same number of I-130's each month.

 

Here are some exaggerated, made up numbers on what I mean, based on some rough numbers from the USCIS quarterly statistics (primarily the fact that Texas/Nebraska/Potomac historically completed a vast majority of I-130 cases, while Vermont was one of the smaller offices...)

 

If all SC's were assigned as many cases as they are processing in equal proportions, then the 'cycle time' measurement would make sense:

• Texas SC: 20k cases pending, completed 5k cases in the previous month -> 20k/5k = 4 months 'cycle time'
• Vermont SC: 4k cases pending, completed 1k cases in previous month -> 4k/1k = 4 months 'cycle time'

 

But, due to the new system of assigning cases "equally", what is happening is more like the following:

• Texas SC: 12k cases pending, completed 5k cases in previous month -> 2.25mo 'cycle time'
• Vermont SC: 12k cases pending, completed 1k cases in previous month -> 12mo 'cycle time'

 

This trend seems to be changing, to where each SC is actually reviewing the same number of cases each quarter, but since the cycle time has some delay to it, those numbers won't match up well to what people see "in real life" - for example, right now, it seems like Vermont (16mo cycle time) is processing October cases from 2021, while California (10.5mo cycle time) is still at late August/September. 

This is an excellent explanation and is how I understood processing time for I-130s as well.

However, it seems that USCIS is creating more confusion now with their "Check Case Processing Times" website.  Now, it explicitly says "80% of cases are completed within XX months" when you check on a Service Center's processing time in the box that appears with the month(s).  This contradicts their own statement on I-130s using "Cycle Times" and resembles more the calculation used for I-129Fs.  Just when you think you have things figured out...

5 hours ago, shytown said:

I did in March. No movement whatsoever. I've heard it only "works" when you're at Potomac, which I am, but even in my case, it didn't help.

For the record, our case is also at Potomac and the K3 has not been helpful for us either.

1 hour ago, Simplytex said:

Just watching the forums this week, seems like its gone quiet in the Sept/October I130 filers. I wonder if people are just not posting updates, or if there is actually something happening behind the scenes at USCIS. Back in Mar 2022 USCIS said that their goal is 6mo to process I130 visa's, but they never said what their target date to achieve that goal is...

That's not quite right and it's unfortunate that these USCIS goals get misunderstood so often. Firstly, they did say when they hope to achieve that goal: the end of FY 2023, so the end of September next year. Also, it's important to understand the difference between cycle times and their publicly posted processing times. USCIS has said the new goal applies to cycle times, meaning how many months’ worth of pending cases for a particular form are awaiting a decision, not how long it takes to process a form.  There's plenty to be annoyed with USCIS but they've been pretty transparent about these new goals. 

https://egov.uscis.gov/processing-times/reducing-processing-backlogs

Looks like a good number of October I-130s were approved yesterday, which is promising, but they were all out of Texas Service Center. Everywhere else is still lagging behind.

Hey all, 

Been lurking for a little bit but figure I'll share my timeline. I'm a USC filing for my Danish spouse and our case is with Potomac Service Center. 

PD: October 12, 2021

Actively Reviewed: May 13, 2022 

Having received our first "actively reviewed" notice so late compared to others is admittedly concerning. We're considering applying for K3 given the success some have had with it, but I've also heard from lawyers that it's a waste of time. So, not quite sure yet. 

Hope we all hear some good news soon.