I don't know, man. I don't think any of us will make any guesses, educated or otherwise, that are the answer.
What I do see, though, is a massive disparity between immigrant and nonimmigrant issuance numbers.
In 2023, USEM issued 249, 644 nonimmigrant visas compared to 173,371 issued in 2022, and also compared to the 30,491 immigrant visas issued in 2023.
Nonimmigrant visas issuances went up 44% from 2022. Immigrant visa issuances also went up 43.14%. But, then, nonimmigrant visas have always been a priority, despite the Department of State's words of: "The guiding principle on which we have based immigrant visa prioritization is that family reunification is a clear priority of the U.S. Government’s immigration policy, a priority is expressed in the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA). Specifically, the Department’s prioritization relied on clear direction from Congress that the Department must adopt a policy of prioritizing immediate relative visa applicants and K-1 fiancées of U.S. citizens, followed by family preference immigrant visa applicants."
It's difficult to see prioritization here. It's also difficult to believe in any backlog talk. If there is a backlog, then USEM probably shouldn't be back to cranking out the same number of immigrant visas they always have but pumping out 12,000 and 14,000 tourist visas monthly.