PuffPuff

Congrats!
We had SD February 5th and i just realized that at says "At NVC", must have changed yesterday as well. Yay! Gonna call on Monday to confirm too

1. I'd say 90% probability that will not be approved.
 
2.1 It won't affect CR-1 as long as you provide correct/truthful information on your J1 application. 
2.2 I don't think the J1 application will affect your VWP. But it is hard to know. They could make a note that you are "desperate to go to the US" and that would be bad for the VWP.
 
3. If you are going to get the 2 year home residency requirement, then don't do it. Waivers are a pain in the a** and you may not get the waiver. It is not like they are going to give you the waiver because you got married. If you get US government funds, they will deny the waiver because they always deny them for exchange students (someone posted here last week about it). If you have German government funds, I don't know if they would agree with the waiver or not. 
If you have any government funding (German or US) you will get the 2 year rule. If you study anything on the skills lists you will get the 2 year rule. 
 
I'd recommend that you do your exchange in some other country. There are so many countries to go to that the US consulate will obviously think that you are trying to meet your husband and maybe even AOS in the US.