Thank you and Yes, next election I'm voting against flake!
Thank you lady. and yes he is in charge and I am so glad of it.
Thank you, i'm in agreement on all points .
thank you everyone, my fiance is the 1 living in america so i will get her to call them tomorrow morning and try and get to speak to a tier 2 rep, will let u all know how it goes, lets hope your right samename, were at almost 9 months wait so getting approved would really make my day (and be a nice early birthday pressie lol)
Congrats!!!
God is in charge and never a politician. Please go out and vote for someone who will actually represent you in the next elections.
Happy for you!!!
Introduction
This thread is offered as a compliment to my previous CSC data analysis thread. While that thread was dedicated to showing why I-129F processing has been delayed at the CSC (because of DACA), this thread is dedicated to showing you the potential extent of that delay going forward.
All the projections done for this thread were done with the same algorithm used for my delay processing calculator (v. 2.0). If you have not tried that out yet, I suggest you do, as it can give you a more exact sense of where your petition falls on these graphs.
Once you have finished reading these graphs, I hope you will consider contacting your elected representative if you have not yet done so. You can find my guide on how to do so here.
Remember, if you find this or any of those other threads useful, please give a vote so that others can more-easily find the same information. (The churn around here tends to bury things rather quickly.)
The Graphs:
Each graph is based off of a set scenario that I programmed for my calculator spreadsheet. Each scenario relies upon the data published by the USCIS for the months of February, 2011 through January, 2013 (the latest as of the time of this post) and then uses hypothetical competition figures for the months thereafter. Due to the limits of making projections based on the published figures, these projections are limited for NOA1 receipt dates filed before the end of January, 2013.
What each graph shows is how long an I-129F petitioner on a given NOA1 receipt date could expect or can expect to wait for their petition to be completed at the CSC.
Doomsday Scenario
I will start with what I believe is the worst possible scenario--that the USCIS has greatly wound down processing of I-129Fs over the last two months and will keep those processing levels low indefinitely. To estimate this going forward, I assumed that only 200 I-129Fs had been completed in each of the months of February and March, 2013, and that the constant rate of 200 completions per month would continue going forward. The reason I chose the 200 number is because it is low enough to allow that there would still be pending July 18, 2012 petitions as of the time of this post, which is what the USCIS swears is the case. Note that this projection cannot account for the wait times of petitions submitted after September, 2013 because those petitions would not be completed before the end of 2014 and the calculator was not designed to project beyond December, 2014.
As you can see, this would be truly catastrophic for I-129F petitioners. Next, however, I will look at how bad things are under more optimistic scenarios...
Note: all scenarios from here on assume that the January, 2013 rate of 574 completions per month (which is quite low by historical standards) continued through February and March, 2013. I know that is a very optimistic assumption and that the real rate was likely much lower for those months (as I stated above, I believe it was likely closer to 200 per month), but even the optimistic projections are devastating and they should be even more persuasive to elected officials because they are still so bad, despite the optimism.
Scenario 1: Indefinite January, 2013 Pace (574 Completions Per Month)
Scenario 2: Return to Median Pre-August, 2012 Pace Starting in April, 2013 (1968 Completions Per Month)
Returning to the median processing rate in April, 2013 would only allow them to lock in a completion time frame of about 8 months for all petitioners going forward.
Scenario 3: Return to Fastest Pre-August, 2012 Pace Starting in April, 2013 (3414 Completions Per Month)
Returning to their fastest pace would help the CSC push processing times down so that were basically back on track by the time they were processing February, 2013 petitioners. But note that this is truly a best case scenario because there is no indication on VJ that April processing has been anything but extremely slow.
The last few scenarios are just variations on scenarios 2 & 3, but with the CSC increasing processing in May or June. Accordingly, they have show similar outcomes, but with bigger delays built in.
Scenario 4: Return to Median Pre-August, 2012 Pace Starting in May, 2013 (1968 Completions Per Month)
Scenario 5: Return to Fastest Pre-August, 2012 Pace Starting in May, 2013 (3414 Completions Per Month)
Scenario 6: Return to Median Pre-August, 2012 Pace Starting in June, 2013 (1968 Completions Per Month)
Scenario 7: Return to Fastest Pre-August, 2012 Pace Starting in June, 2013 (3414 Completions Per Month)
Conclusion:
All of the graphs, as optimistic as they are, show that the CSC has let an extremely abnormal processing backlog for I-129Fs build up. No matter what they do now, I-129F petitioners will continue to suffer for several months to come. But the severity of the possible suffering should behoove them to start processing again as soon as possible. And those of you who filed after the fall of 2012 should look at how you will be affected by this mess going forward. It's going to hurt you too, guaranteed. Time for everyone to start contacting elected officials and the media. We need to fight for ourselves and our loved ones because no on else is going to.
Guys am sooooo happy to finally have the hope of having my baby girl in my arms. :D Our visa got approved today at the naples embassy,italy.
the IO ceased our skype conversations and email cus there were too many dirty talk in it :rofl: ....lol....all in all i thank God for this,and my bday is
in 12 days from now,the best gift ever...to everyone out there,i say keep hope alive,it will be over before u know it. :dance:
With just one day of data, I think it's too soon to panic. It could just be a blip as CSC gets in gear. I think back in Feb/early March a group of relatively recent VSC petitions were approved out of sequence. Posters hypothesized that maybe they were used for training purposes, and soon after VSC did seem to speed up. (I think. I find monitoring VSC's progress on Igor's list too depressing to do so regularly.) I would welcome a few more CSC adjudicators clearing up the backlog.
That being said, if this trend continues, I will be livid, but not surprised. CSC seems to ignore the fact that there are real people -- separated from their fiance, sometimes their children, with their lives on hold -- behind the numbers that they so readily manipulate.
:dance: went to work this morning, Checked my status at least 4 times today. Before I left work at 4 pm I checked one last time, still no NOA2, got home open my laptop, log on to uscis.gov and there was my approvalafter 242 long days. No text or e-mail was sent to me. FINALLY APPROVED, SUPPER HAPPY!!!!!
samename reacted to Lornaevo in Will Dzhokhar Tsarnaev a Naturalized US citizen
samename got a reaction from Faithful2012 in Approved (CSC)