Should Beijing fear the Islamic State?

[GBCW 397]

By Gary Sands
September 26, 2014

The U.S. and Australia are obvious targets for IS, but how dire is the threat for China? According to comments made in July by Wu Sike, China’s special envoy to the Middle East, up to 100 Chinese citizens may be fighting for IS. Wu believes the Chinese fighters are Uighurs from Xinjiang, a Muslim Turkic-speaking ethnic minority group.

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The heightened concern comes as Beijing battles an active homegrown terrorist insurgency primarily focused in the autonomous region of Xinjiang. Local authorities lay the blame for the violence on the minority Uyghur population.

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Beijing is likely heightening its activity in response to comments made in early July by IS speaking of revenge against several countries, including China, for seizing “Muslim rights.” The comments made the cover story of Phoenix Weekly, a Hong Kong-based newsmagazine widely distributed in China, and the article was widely disseminated throughout Chinese news websites and social media to a population still anxious and fearful following the Kunming and Guangzhou attacks.

The article quotes a July 4 speech in Mosul, Iraq by IS leader Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi, during which he says, “Muslim rights are forcibly seized in China, India, Palestine” and, “Your brothers all over the world are waiting for your rescue, and are anticipating your brigades.” The article specifically notes that China was mentioned first on al-Baghdadi’s list, and shows a map that reportedly shows the territory IS plans to occupy in the next five years – which includes a significant portion of Xinjiang.

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Beijing is likely to give the go-ahead soon to use the perceived threat as justification to intensify their crackdown on the Uighur population. Uighur exile groups already complain Beijing overstates the threat from terrorism, falsely portraying riots as premeditated terror attacks.

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Unfortunately for the citizens of Xinjiang, Beijing is likely to use reports of an Islamic State presence in Xinjiang as propaganda to step up their fight against terrorism. Sadly, much as we saw happen to the Chechens, Kashmiris and Palestinians following the events of September 2001, Beijing’s reaction to the perceived threat of IS will likely only lead to more innocent victims, more counterattacks by extremists, and the radicalization of Uighur youth. All of which could one day fulfill the prophecy of IS entering the region.

Gary Sands is a director at Highway West Capital Advisors, a venture capital, project finance and political risk advisory, and has contributed a number of op-eds for the South China Morning Post, U.S. News and World Report, Washington Times, and other outlets. He spent six years in Shanghai from 2006-2012, and is based now in Ho Chi Minh City.

http://thediplomat.com/2014/09/china-and-the-isis-threat/