Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  

Romney campaign suspends TV advertising in Ohio

1 post in this topic

Recommended Posts

Thursday's New York Times reports that Romney's most recent $3.4m outlay for television advertising in eight swing states excludes Ohio entirely:

On Wednesday, the Romney campaign reserved $3.4 million worth of advertising time in eight swing states. Nearly half of that - more than $1.5 million - was for Virginia. The rest was spread across Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Wisconsin. His total ad spending for the week is more than $10 million.


A slew of recent Ohio polls have continued to move the Buckeye state further and further out of reach for Romney. Indeed, Nate Silver's model now gives President Obama an 82% chance of winning Ohio on November 6th, and his 'now-cast' estimates "that Mr. Obama would have a 96 percent chance of winning Ohio in an election held today".

Excluding Ohio from its most recent spending may indicate a shift in strategy by the Romney campaign to a "Plan B", also discussed by Nate Silver in his Wednesday blog post; a strategy that no other Republican in history has pulled off: Winning the Presidency without winning Ohio.

The map ... in which Mr. Romney wins Iowa despite losing both Ohio and Wisconsin, would suffice to give him 273 electoral votes. In the simulations where Mr. Romney won the election despite losing Ohio, this was the case that came up most frequently.

I'd call this the 'hail mary' strategy, since, as Mr. Silver discusses, it would require that Romney run the table in ALL of the following swing states: Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Iowa, Colorado, Nevada and New Hampshire (in which he trails in just about every one of them, including Nevada, a state in which Romney has "never held a lead in a public poll") . This scenario would concede Wisconsin to Obama and result in a 273-265 win for Romney in the electoral college. (Note that in this scenario, New Hampshire's four electoral votes move Romney over the top, though a New Hampshire loss for Romney in this scenario would drop the race into a 269-269 tie, in which the tie would then be broken by the majority in the House).

Nate Silver's confidence in Romney's ability to pull this off? Fat-chance.

It isn't a great plan. But when you're the Republican candidate and are down outside the margin of error in Ohio with six weeks to go, you don't have any great plans.


Share this post

Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  
- Back to Top -

Important Disclaimer: Please read carefully the Visajourney.com Terms of Service. If you do not agree to the Terms of Service you should not access or view any page (including this page) on VisaJourney.com. Answers and comments provided on Visajourney.com Forums are general information, and are not intended to substitute for informed professional medical, psychiatric, psychological, tax, legal, investment, accounting, or other professional advice. Visajourney.com does not endorse, and expressly disclaims liability for any product, manufacturer, distributor, service or service provider mentioned or any opinion expressed in answers or comments. VisaJourney.com does not condone immigration fraud in any way, shape or manner. VisaJourney.com recommends that if any member or user knows directly of someone involved in fraudulent or illegal activity, that they report such activity directly to the Department of Homeland Security, Immigration and Customs Enforcement. You can contact ICE via email at Immigration.Reply@dhs.gov or you can telephone ICE at 1-866-347-2423. All reported threads/posts containing reference to immigration fraud or illegal activities will be removed from this board. If you feel that you have found inappropriate content, please let us know by contacting us here with a url link to that content. Thank you.