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Question about retrogression

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Hi everyone, long-time reader and I just created an account to finally post :)

My wife is waiting for a green card under F2A with a PD of Nov 2010. A question that has always been on my mind is whether the priority date movement will slow down a lot once they start processing people who filed after mid 2010 when the wait was so short. My thinking is that a lot of people filed then which is why the retrogression happened.

One theory I have that I want to run by you guys is that when the PD comes up to mid 2010, there won't be many filers. My reasoning is that a bunch of the filers will be US citizens by that point. To give an example, let's divide the filers into groups based on how long they had green cards:

0-1 year

1-2 years

2-3 years

3-4 years

4-5 years

Now the last two groups will become US citizens by this summer, so we can take them out. My hunch is that the first group is relatively small, since if they knew they were planning on getting married, they would have done it before getting the greencard. So then we're just left with (mostly) the second and third group.

What do you guys think?

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