Primary 'enthusiasm gap' points to November GOP turnout advantage

[I AM NOT THAT GUY 5,715]

Republican candidates enter the final two months of the campaign with an unprecedented 10-point lead on the generic congressional ballot and a categorical edge in what gets people to the polls: enthusiasm.

The GOP has turned out 3 million more voters than Democrats during the primary season so far — reversing the 3 million-vote advantage Democrats enjoyed in 2006, the last midterm year.

Democrats do have one important advantage: bigger bank accounts. As of July 31, records showed the Democratic National Committee (DNC) had $10.8 million on hand, while the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) had $22.4 million and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) had $35.8 million — a combined $69 million, and more than their Republican counterparts in all three categories.

The Republican National Committee had $5.3 million on hand, while the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) had $21.2 million and the National Republican Congressional Committee had $22.1 million, for $48.6 million overall.

Brandi Hoffine, a spokeswoman for the DNC, said the party will spend no less than $50 million on voter-turnout efforts this fall at the national and state levels — money that Republicans don’t have.

Still, an extensive study being circulated among top Republicans shows that in 15 of 16 closed primaries this year, the percentage of GOP voters who turned out was higher than the corresponding percentage of Democratic ones. The only exception was the May 11 West Virginia primary, where both parties’ turnout was the same, at 25 percent.

That study doesn’t include the recent Florida primary, where Republicans eclipsed Democrats on turnout: 787,122 registered Republicans cast ballots compared to only 489,384 Democrats, in a state that has more registered Democrats than Republicans.

Curtis Gans, director of the Center for the Study of the American Electorate at American University and an expert on turnout, said Democrats are battling some severe headwinds, noting that the party is coming off an election in 2008 that saw record numbers of black and younger voters motivated to turn out.

“That’s not going to be replicated,” Gans said. “Republicans do have an edge in turnout and intensity. There are a lot of issues on which liberal support is weak, and even if they don’t vote for Republicans, some of them simply won’t show up. Then you have a problem with independents — Obama won them in 2008, but he’s trailing after them now.”

A recent Gallup poll showed the GOP holding a 10-point advantage, 51 to 41, when voters were asked to choose between a generic Democratic or Republican candidate. That is the largest lead since Gallup started polling the generic ballot, in 1942. Democrats had a six-point lead in the same poll just a month ago.

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/gop-primaries/116843-primary-season-enthusiasm-gap-points-to-november-gop-turnout-edge

Edited September 3, 2010 by ##########