Nissan foresees 'mass market' for electric cars

[mawilson 2,133]

Pure-electric vehicles could account for 10 per cent of all new car purchases by 2020, Carlos Ghosn,

head of the Renault-Nissan alliance, predicted on Sunday as he unveiled the Leaf, an emissions-free

family hatchback the Japanese carmaker is aiming at mass-market buyers.

Mr Ghosn said at Nissan’s new global headquarters in Yokohama, south of Tokyo: “We don’t see the

electric car as a niche car. We see it as a mass-market car.”

Powered by an 80kW electric motor and rechargeable lithium-ion battery, the Leaf will be introduced

in Japan and the US late next year. From 2012, when Nissan aims to begin selling the Leaf worldwide,

it plans to build 200,000 of thm a year – by far the most ambitious production target for an all-electric

vehicle.

Noboru Tateishi, programme director for electric vehicles, said Nissan planned eventually to build the

Leaf at its UK assembly plant in Sunderland. So far, the company has designated factories in Oppama,

Japan, and Smyrna, Tennessee as initial production sites, although battery production will also take

place in the UK and Portugal.

In June, Nissan received a $1.6bn low-interest loan from the US government to retool the Smyrna

plant for electric-car production. The British and Portuguese governments also have offered low-interest

loans and other incentives.

Nissan said the Leaf could travel at least 160km (100 miles) on a full charge, a range it said exceeded

the typical daily driving needs of 70 per cent of car owners.

The car can be recharged in eight hours from a standard home wall socket. It can also be charged to

80 per cent capacity in 30 minutes using a high-powered “quick charger” Nissan is pushing to have

installed in petrol stations, car parks and other public facilities.

The question of recharging infrastructure remains a considerable obstacle to the widespread adoption

of electric cars, according to analysts.

Nissan still has to win over doubters. CSM Worldwide market research has estimated that global

carmakers will together build just 100,000 electric cars by 2015. JPMorgan analysts expect cheaper

petrol-electric hybrids to account for 13 per cent of sales by 2020.

Other carmakers are also testing the all-electric market, however. Japan’s Mitsubishi Motors is to begin

selling a smaller electric car, the iMiev, in Japan this month. It has priced the car at Y4.6m ($48,600) –

about three times more than a petrol version of the same car – and is eyeing annual output of 30,000

units.

Nissan has not set a price for the Leaf but said on Sunday its cost would be “competitive” with

“well-equipped” petrol-powered cars in the same class. The price will not include the battery, however,

which drivers will lease separately from the carmaker.

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Now let's do the math.

• 80 kW electric motor
• 100 miles on a full charge
• recharged in 8 hours from a standard home wall socket

Multiply the kW by the number of hours worked to get the number of kWh consumed.

The Leaf draws power from a 24 kWh battery pack. Nissan claims the car has a range of

100 miles; given the size of the pack, 70 is probably more realistic.

At 20c per kWh, the cost is almost $5 / 70 miles or 14.6 miles / $1. With gas prices between

$2 and $3 per gallon, you won't see any savings over a conventional (30-40 mpg) gasoline-

powered vehicle.

[dalegg 143]

I don't think so. Unless gas gets to be 10 bucks a gallon.