HC leads nomination race by 2 points, leads in other races

[Sheriff Uling 3]

What if the supers at the last minute decided to support Sen. Clinton? Does anyone feel like the democratic party would fall apart as the pundits predict?

[no name 1]

What if the supers at the last minute decided to support Sen. Clinton? Does anyone feel like the democratic party would fall apart as the pundits predict?

I've asked Steven that 4x....

[one...two...tree 2,762]

What if the supers at the last minute decided to support Sen. Clinton? Does anyone feel like the democratic party would fall apart as the pundits predict?

They won't do that unless they too are hellbent on seeing Hillary win at all costs. As much as metta and Dev are hoping that will happen, Hillary won't destroy the Party and herself in the process.

[Sheriff Uling 3]

What if the supers at the last minute decided to support Sen. Clinton? Does anyone feel like the democratic party would fall apart as the pundits predict?

I've asked Steven that 4x....

The 5th times the charm...

[GaryC 7]

Having 2025 delegates does not mean that Obama has the nomination. 2025 is the minimum needed to get the nomination at the convention. Between June and Aug the SD are free to change their minds if something happens in that time. McCain has the needed pledged delegates but he is still refered to as the "presumptive candidate". It isn't official until the delegates cast their votes at the convention. I don't see Hillary giving up in June. She knows that some other revelation about Obama may come and the SD's could change their mind. It will not be over until the convention. Your math means nothing unless Obama can get 2025 PLEDGED delegates. That will not happen. Knowing of the rules will set you free.

Ok, let me rephrase what I've said earlier...once Obama reaches 2,025 delegates, Hillary will concede Obama as the presumptive nominee. She will not fight this all the way to the Convention...at least not without committing political suicide and bringing the Party down with her.

Hillary has one of two motivations. 1.- she wants to be president so bad she does not care what happens if she fails. 2.- She knows that she cannot get elected this time around and wants to ruin Obama's chances so she can try next time. Either way she isn't giving up. She cares even less about the dem party than I do.

[no name 1]

What if the supers at the last minute decided to support Sen. Clinton? Does anyone feel like the democratic party would fall apart as the pundits predict?

I've asked Steven that 4x....

The 5th times the charm...

[Sheriff Uling 3]

What if the supers at the last minute decided to support Sen. Clinton? Does anyone feel like the democratic party would fall apart as the pundits predict?

They won't do that unless they too are hellbent on seeing Hillary win at all costs. As much as metta and Dev are hoping that will happen, Hillary won't destroy the Party and herself in the process.

Then you don't know the same Sen. Clinton that I've learned to dislike. YES SHE WILL...

[one...two...tree 2,762]

(from Daily Kos...good read)

When will the Democratic nomination battle end? Five possible times jump out: (1) Shortly after next Tuesday's (May 6) contests in Indiana and North Carolina, (2) Shortly after the May 20 contests in Oregon and Kentucky. (3) Shortly after the last primaries (June 3) in Montana and South Dakota. (4) Shortly after the last delegates are officially selected (June 22). (5) At the convention in Denver. In this diary I want to look at the delegate numbers to see how these scenarios might play out. I'll be using numbers from Obama's campaign results center but these actually tend to be more reliable than most media organizations.

* Galois's diary :: ::

*

According to Obama's campaign they have are projected to earn 1493 pledged delegates in the contests so far. Since there will be 3253 pledged delegates total, this means Obama needs to earn 134 more pledged delegates (out of the 408 available) in the upcoming contests to reach the magical number 1627, a majority of pledged delegates. That is he only needs about a third of the remaining pledged delegates to be the pledged delegate winner. This would be a foregone conclusion even if Obama weren't favored in North Carolina which accounts for 115 of those delegates. Still there is something significant about hitting that 1627 number which is why even those superdelegates who have talked about supporting the pledged delegate winner have not yet come out and said that winner is Obama.

Before we can discuss when he will reach this number it is important to clarify what the Obama campaign means when they claim they have earned 1493 pledged delegates in the states so far. This number does not include any delegates from states like Indiana or Oregon that have not yet had contests , but it does count delegates from caucus states like Nevada and Colorado even though those are only projections about what will happen based on state-level delegate selection that has already occurred. These numbers can change. For example the day after Iowa first voted (way back in January) Obama was predicted to earn 16 delegates based on the results of the precincc caucuses. After the Iowa county conventions (in mid-March) the campaign upped their projection to 25 delegates based on those results. This past weekend they lowered their projection to 24 based on the results of the congressional district conventions. This number included 16 pledged delegates that were actually chosen last Saturday and another 8 that he is projected to earn in mid-June. Why is all this important? It means that when Obama (and most of the media) announce that he hit the 1627 number and probably declare him the pledged delegate winner it still won't be official in the sense that a number of those delegates are being counted now, but won't be officially selected until later. By my count at least 85 of the delegates Obama is counting (including 38 from the Texas caucus) won't be officially selected until after June 3. Still the sort of changes we saw in Iowa were primarily due to the uncertainty surrounding the delegates Edwards earned there. We are n't likely to see the same swings in other states, although Texas (June 6-7) is a bit of question mark due to both a significant number of state-level superdelegates and the likelihood of some credential challenges based on some of the chaos surrounding their county conventions. I figure Obama's actual number could drop a delegate or two there.

With that in mind, let's look at those key dates again. Already Obama is the forgone winner of the pledged delegate contest but hasn't been crowned as such by the media or party leaders. (Even the recent superdelegates to endorse haven't said the reason was because of his pledged delegate win). It is practically impossible for him to earn 134 delegates on Tuesday (there are only 187 total at stake plus another 4 a few days earlier in Guam). Still, wins in both states might very well enough to cause many superdelegates including key ones to announce for Obama including possibly some switching from Clinton. Thus this is a possible end time for the campaign.

If it doesn't end there it's probably going until at least May 20. This is a key date, though. There are another 103 delegates at stake that day (plus another 28 a week earlier in West Virginia). This is almost certainly the day Obama will hit that 1627 number. Even if he had a poor showing on the 6th where he splits North Carolina and loses modestly in Indiana he would still have 90+ delegates from those states and 10+ from Guam and West Virginia. Thus he would likely need less than 34 of the 103 delegates on the 20th. Even a wipeout in Kentucky and a modest loss in Oregon would be enough for this. I expect many media organizations and superdelegates to declare Obama the pledged delegate winner at this point. This should cause a number of superdelegates to announce for Obama and I honestly expect a few switches if Clinton still hasn't conceded. I feel strongly she will concede at this point (if she hasn't already).

Still, though, some delegates may say at this point let's let everyone vote before announcing. This is especially the case if Obama "backs into" the 1627 number with poor showings in Indiana, North Carolina, West Virginia, Oregon, and Kentucky. If the contest continues past this point it should continue until at least the end of the voting on June 3. The two last states (South Dakota and Montana) are small, but based on performance in neighboring states and endorsements they should favor Obama heavily. As noted before Obama will already have earned the 134 delegates needed for the pledged delegate win, but may not have the 288 total delegates he says he needs to have the total number to secure the nomination. Superdelegates who were waiting until all the people have voted will now feel free to declare their choice. In fact, the signs from Dean, Pelosi, and Reid have been that there will be great pressure to choose at this point. This should give Obama enough to secure the nomination and the race should end here if it hadn't earlier.

Still, if things are close and Clinton is stubborn we should note that not all of the delegates have been chosen at this point. As noted above at least 85 of the pledged delegates Obama is counting from caucus states will not have been elected yet and a number of states will not have selected their unpledged add-ons (a few more superdelegates). There is a good chance that Clinton could in all fairness that he has not earned the support of the requisite number of delegates yet and keep fighting at least through June. (I don't think this likely, but there is a slight possibility).

Finally if she's really stubborn she could take it to Denver despite the tremendous pressure to concede. She can argue that superdelegates are free to change their minds (and a few have, but always for Obama) and she has even argued that even pledged delegates can go back on their pledges. This was what Kennedy did in 1980. But 1980 didn't work out well for the party and I don't expect a repeat. And while pledged delegates can technically disregard their signed pledges of support, so can presidential electors. If Clinton was really never going to quit and was going to make a futile attempt to have delegates disregard the voters, why does it matter what happens in Denver? Can't she continue to try to convince the presidential electors to disregard the vote in November and vote for her when the electoral college meets in December?

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/4/30/03...3984/352/506108

[GaryC 7]

What if the supers at the last minute decided to support Sen. Clinton? Does anyone feel like the democratic party would fall apart as the pundits predict?

They won't do that unless they too are hellbent on seeing Hillary win at all costs. As much as metta and Dev are hoping that will happen, Hillary won't destroy the Party and herself in the process.

Then you don't know the same Sen. Clinton that I've learned to dislike. YES SHE WILL...

On this we agree brother!

[Sheriff Uling 3]

Having 2025 delegates does not mean that Obama has the nomination. 2025 is the minimum needed to get the nomination at the convention. Between June and Aug the SD are free to change their minds if something happens in that time. McCain has the needed pledged delegates but he is still refered to as the "presumptive candidate". It isn't official until the delegates cast their votes at the convention. I don't see Hillary giving up in June. She knows that some other revelation about Obama may come and the SD's could change their mind. It will not be over until the convention. Your math means nothing unless Obama can get 2025 PLEDGED delegates. That will not happen. Knowing of the rules will set you free.

Ok, let me rephrase what I've said earlier...once Obama reaches 2,025 delegates, Hillary will concede Obama as the presumptive nominee. She will not fight this all the way to the Convention...at least not without committing political suicide and bringing the Party down with her.

Hillary has one of two motivations. 1.- she wants to be president so bad she does not care what happens if she fails. 2.- She knows that she cannot get elected this time around and wants to ruin Obama's chances so she can try next time. Either way she isn't giving up. She cares even less about the dem party than I do.

She almost cares less about them... with the exception that you won't EVER label yourself a democrat... Shame on you. Hehehehe...

[one...two...tree 2,762]

Hillary has one of two motivations. 1.- she wants to be president so bad she does not care what happens if she fails. 2.- She knows that she cannot get elected this time around and wants to ruin Obama's chances so she can try next time. Either way she isn't giving up. She cares even less about the dem party than I do.

I know she wants to win, but I'd argue that she's NOT willing to commit political suicide to try and get it (she's an opportunist, not an anarchist). Secondly, I don't doubt for a second that she believes she could win against McCain...what you're suggesting smells of conspiracy. I know it makes for good drama and bless Dev and metta for keeping us all thinking such things, but it just isn't going to happen. I'm just keeping my eyes open for that oasis in June, when all this nonsense will end.

Edited May 2, 2008 by Jabberwocky

[Mr. Big Dog 10,747]

What if the supers at the last minute decided to support Sen. Clinton? Does anyone feel like the democratic party would fall apart as the pundits predict?

The Democrats will have squandered their more than fair chance to capture the Presidency and Sen McCain would move into 1600 Penn Ave. There will be no united party behind a candidate that hasn't garnered the majority support of the voters. The only way Sen Clinton can be the nominee with a chance to win in November is if Obama decides to drop out and support her instead. I don't see that happening.

[no name 1]

What if the supers at the last minute decided to support Sen. Clinton? Does anyone feel like the democratic party would fall apart as the pundits predict?

The Democrats will have squandered their more than fair chance to capture the Presidency and Sen McCain would move into 1600 Penn Ave. There will be no united party behind a candidate that hasn't garnered the majority support of the voters. The only way Sen Clinton can be the nominee with a chance to win in November is if Obama decides to drop out and support her instead. I don't see that happening.

She can win & pick him as VP.

[one...two...tree 2,762]

What if the supers at the last minute decided to support Sen. Clinton? Does anyone feel like the democratic party would fall apart as the pundits predict?

The Democrats will have squandered their more than fair chance to capture the Presidency and Sen McCain would move into 1600 Penn Ave. There will be no united party behind a candidate that hasn't garnered the majority support of the voters. The only way Sen Clinton can be the nominee with a chance to win in November is if Obama decides to drop out and support her instead. I don't see that happening.

She can win & pick him as VP.

LOL...Dev, I admire your ####### but you've just dived off the deep end.

[no name 1]

Wright uproar boosts Clinton confidence

Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) on Wednesday sent a fundraising e-mail with the subject line “Roaring back.”

For the first time since her humiliating third-place finish in Iowa nearly four months ago, Clinton aides aren’t privately rolling their eyes at their own campaign bluster — even if the evidence of a comeback so far is still less than a roar.

For the past couple of months, Clinton has been resting her hopes — and resisting calls to drop out — on the possibility of a game-changer, some unforeseen event that would change the prism through which the media, superdelegates and average Democrats are viewing her uphill campaign against Barack Obama.

It won’t be clear until the May 6 primaries in Indiana and North Carolina whether the game really has changed. But recent days have shown that the ground has shifted in important ways for her.

Some are concrete: better fundraising, well-timed endorsements and a spate of polls showing how Obama’s relationship with the Rev. Jeremiah Wright has broken skin politically.Others are more intangible: crisp performances by Clinton at a time when the usually poised Obama has appeared more rattled than at any time in this campaign, as well as a Clinton campaign team that is no longer defeatist and morose behind the scenes.

But if the mathematics of the race has not changed, aides believe the psychology has.

By no means are they effusive. Under their best-case scenario, Clinton advisers believe she will be about 100 delegates behind Obama when the primary season ends on June 3.

But if the mathematics of the race has not changed, aides believe the psychology has.

Before, the Clintons knew they were fighting a story line that said she could never win unless superdelegates take the nomination away from a popular African-American who came in first.

Now they hope that they have subtly shifted to a new story line: Superdelegates must think twice before bestowing the nomination on an increasingly controversial politician who has missed repeated opportunities to wrap up the contest with a decisive, big-state victory.

“We always knew she’d win when the press started treating the candidates equally and the voters got her message,” said Terry McAuliffe, Clinton’s campaign chairman.

McAuliffe, who talks to the senator and former President Bill Clinton constantly, said they have always remained optimistic.

“I never thought she’d gone anywhere,” McAuliffe said. “She is the same candidate she’s been for the last 16 months. But now the press is paying more attention to her and she can come back and win.”

McAuliffe is characteristically the most ebullient — even Pollyannaish — of Clinton’s surrogates. But it’s clear that even more jaundiced members of her camp now feel that at least some measure of optimism is justified.

Their scenario depends on emphatic victories in Indiana and, a week later, in West Virginia, fueled by the same type of white, working-class Democrats who backed Clinton in Ohio and Pennsylvania, while keeping an all-but-certain Obama win in North Carolina narrower than is expected.

According to this line of argument, these results would allow Clinton operatives to credibly stoke “buyer’s remorse” feelings among superdelegates.

It remains a long shot by almost any calculation. Last month, a Clinton adviser estimated to Politico that she had no more than a 10 percent chance of winning. And as of Tuesday, Obama has gained 38 superdelegates to Clinton’s eight since the March 4 primaries, when she slowed his momentum with victories in Ohio and Texas.

This means even good news for Clinton comes framed by bad context. The mood inside her campaign is akin to that of a near-terminal patient who gets approved for new experimental therapies: Maybe something will work.

After sketching her potential path to victory, a Clinton adviser said: “Thirty days ago, I could have given you this rap, but you wouldn’t have believed it. Thirty days later, I can give you this rap and you say, ‘You know, you might be right.’”

“She’s relaxed and she’s in her groove,” crowed a senior Clinton aide who had been downbeat. “The story of this race is these twists and turns.”

And for the moment, the twists have turned in her direction.

This includes the fact that April was the second-best fundraising month for her so far this campaign, helping ease a severe financial drought. She won the endorsement of North Carolina Gov. Mike Easley.

And two recent polls have buoyed her. An Associated Press-Ipsos poll showed her beating Republican John McCain 50 percent to 41 percent while Obama was running 46 percent to 44 percent in the same matchup. A Fox News poll Wednesday showed her outperforming Obama among independent voters.

Most important, the Fox poll highlighted the potential damage Wright has caused Obama. Among Democratic voters, 36 percent said they were concerned either somewhat or a great deal about Wright, and 64 percent said they believed the controversy has hurt Obama’s campaign.

From the Clinton vantage point, the best thing about the Wright story is that it is being driven by the media, rather than by attacks from her, which carry the risk of a backfire among Democrats who want their candidates playing nice.

“Our view is, this is his story,” the Clinton adviser said. “He’s going to have to answer it and deal with it.”

Obama aides say this week’s news cannot obscure the larger reality: Clinton is behind with no obvious paths to getting ahead.

“Superdelegates are her only path to the nomination, and she has been losing them at a rate of 9-to-1 since Feb. 5,” an Obama aide said. “If she can’t get them now, when will she get them?”

link

What if the supers at the last minute decided to support Sen. Clinton? Does anyone feel like the democratic party would fall apart as the pundits predict?

The Democrats will have squandered their more than fair chance to capture the Presidency and Sen McCain would move into 1600 Penn Ave. There will be no united party behind a candidate that hasn't garnered the majority support of the voters. The only way Sen Clinton can be the nominee with a chance to win in November is if Obama decides to drop out and support her instead. I don't see that happening.

She can win & pick him as VP.

LOL...Dev, I admire your ####### but you've just dived off the deep end.

Will you answer my question?????

Edited May 2, 2008 by illumine