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In North Carolina, Clinton Closes To Within 5 Of Obama


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Filed: Timeline

In a Democratic Primary in North Carolina today, 04/29/08, one week till votes are counted, the 10-point lead that Barack Obama has had for two months is halved, to now 5 points, Obama 49%, Clinton 44%, according to SurveyUSA's 7th tracking poll, conducted exclusively for WTVD-TV Raleigh.

In SurveyUSA last four polls, over the past two months, Obama has led by 10, 8, 10, and 9 points. Today: 5. White voters are key. Since January, Clinton had led among Carolina whites by 14, 19, 17, 22 and 23 points. But today, suddenly: 31. In the Research Triangle, Clinton is up 9 points, week-on-week; Obama is down 3; a net swing of 12 points to Clinton. Among unaffiliated voters, Clinton has overtaken Obama for the first time in 2008, though the difference is small and within the sub-group's margin of sampling error. The two tie among Moderates. Obama leads slightly among Liberals. Clinton leads slightly among Conservatives.

There is enough cross-current in the political waters that SurveyUSA's final pre-Primary poll, next week, may show more movement -- though in which direction it is impossible to know.


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Filed: Timeline

If SurveyUSA Is On Target, We're Seeing a Dramatic Shift

After seeing the Survey USA poll showing Hillary within 5 percent of Obama in North Carolina, I decided to go back to see how that firm had done in recent Democratic contests.

In Pennsylvania, Survey USA's last poll had Hillary 50, Obama 44. The final numbers in the Keystone State were 54.6 percent to 45.4 percent.

In Ohio, Survey USA's last poll had it Hillary 54, Obama 44. That almost nailed it, as the final numbers there were 54.2 percent to 44.1 percent.

In Texas, Survey USA's last poll had Obama ahead, 49 to 48. Hillary won that state, but it was indeed close, 50.9 percent to 47.4 percent. They had Hillary two points too low, and Obama about 1.5 percent too high.

So while Survey USA is the only one putting North Carolina in single digits, their track record lately suggests we shouldn't expect them to be too far off the final results. Also note that Survey USA puts Hillary ahead in Indiana by 9 percent.


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