A forced Renzi resignation could hurt GOP

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In pressuring Renzi to step down, Republicans might actually be making their political dilemma worse.

Photo: AP

Given that the indictment of a Republican congressman on wire fraud, extortion and other charges is about the last thing the GOP needs in this cycle, last week’s call by House Minority Leader John A. Boehner for Arizona Rep. Rick Renzi to “seriously consider” resigning seemed smart politics.

But in pressuring Renzi — who has denied any wrongdoing and who said Monday he would not resign — to step down, Republicans might actually be making their political dilemma worse. If Renzi were to resign before May 4, Republicans would be forced to defend an expansive and expensive eastern Arizona seat in a special election with little money in their campaign coffers and without a leading candidate in a very muddled field.

“I don’t think it is in the national party’s interest to have a special election at this point,” said Nathan Sproul, a Republican consultant based in Arizona. “The Democrats have far more money, and it would put the Republicans far deeper in debt.”

An early special election would force the Republicans’ hand in spending millions of dollars to retain a seat that has been held by Republicans since its creation in 2002. The National Republican Congressional Committee ended January with only $6.4 million in its campaign account, and an all-out effort for Renzi’s seat would be costly.

To thoroughly compete in the district, candidates will need to advertise in the pricey Phoenix media market, even though the Phoenix area accounts for only a small part of the overall district. Given the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s huge financial advantage, it would enter any special election with a head start.

Democrats also have a clearer field of candidates who had already begun their fundraising efforts in preparation for a competitive campaign. State Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick is viewed as the front-runner, having already raised more than $400,000 for the seat.

She is currently facing former television reporter Mary Kim Titla and attorney Howard Shanker in the Democratic primary, but both candidates trail Kirkpatrick in fundraising so far.

“Democrats are going to be salivating over this district. This is one of their top three or four chances for a pickup. They are going to drop as much as they need to in this district,” said a leading Republican operative based in Arizona.

Kirkpatrick faces some obstacles of her own, however. She was endorsed by EMILY’s List, an influential group that backs female Democratic candidates who support abortion rights. But while the endorsement may help her raise money, being supportive of abortion rights isn’t an asset in this culturally conservative district.

“It’s something she needs to factor and be careful how she talks about it,” said a Democratic operative with roots in Arizona. “That’s why Renzi was popular: He was socially conservative and pretty moderate on fiscal issues.”

Republicans lack a standout candidate — and some party insiders fear a special election could result in a party nominee in November who is too conservative for the district.

Currently, the only credible Republican candidate who has filed to run is charter school advocate Sydney Hay, who lost to Renzi in the 2002 primary but has vocal support from the district’s conservative constituencies. Many national Republicans are concerned that Hay could prevail in a special election but would have a tougher time winning a general election.

“I’m not convinced she will be able to raise the amount of money that it takes to fend off the charges that she is a hard-liner and out of step fundamentally with this district,” said Cook Political Report House analyst David Wasserman.

Some Republicans privately compare Hay to Randy Graf, the party’s outspoken conservative nominee against Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D-Ariz.) in 2006, who drew opposition from his own party’s campaign committee because they viewed him as too conservative to win the seat. Graf lost by double digits in the general election.

A more moderate contender, Arizona Corporation Commissioner Kris Mayes, also said she is strongly considering running. Mayes served as Democratic Gov. Janet Napolitano’s communications director and previously worked as a reporter at the Arizona Republic.

Mayes’ moderate credentials could make her a formidable general election nominee, but they also give her glaring vulnerabilities in a low-turnout special election primary for the seat. In addition, she hasn’t yet demonstrated the ability to raise the large sums of money necessary to effectively contest the district.

The party’s favored candidate at one point, state Rep. Bill Konopnicki, abruptly dropped out of the race last month after forming an exploratory committee and raising money for a congressional bid. There have been unconfirmed media reports in the past week that Konopnicki is reconsidering the race.

Some Republicans are privately hopeful that, given the prospect of a special election, former state Senate President Ken Bennett will enter the race. Bennett previously declined to run for Renzi’s seat after his retirement announcement, but some Republicans are optimistic he may change his mind.

The district, which extends from the sparsely populated Navajo nation down to the fast-growing Phoenix suburbs of Pinal County, is one of the largest in the country. It has favored Republicans at the national level, voting for President Bush with 54 percent of the vote in 2004.

But Democrats have a 32,000 voter registration advantage due to the presence of many conservative-minded voters who vote Democratic locally but prefer Republicans at the national level.

Most of the Democrats who have carried the district in recent years have backgrounds as prosecutors, including Gov. Janet Napolitano, former Sen. Dennis DeConcini and state Attorney General Terry Goddard.

“In most of the districts in Arizona, presidential years are better for Democrats, but that’s not the case in [Renzi’s district]. There are a lot of soft Republicans there that turn out in presidential elections,” the Democratic operative said.

Another key factor is the district’s sizable Native American population, which had overwhelmingly supported Renzi in his past campaigns. Kirkpatrick and Titla both have close ties to the community and would be well-positioned to peel off some of his support.

“A special election will be all about organization, and on the reservations in the district, Democrats have an opportunity to really get out the vote in a more organized manner,” said Wasserman.

An early special election will also limit the benefits the Republican nominee might see from having Arizona Sen. John McCain as the all-but-certain GOP nominee at the top of the ticket.

And if Democrats win a close special election, the nominee would have the ability to build incumbency heading into the regularly scheduled November election.

“If Ann [Kirkpatrick] can win the special election, that’s a really big deal. It gives her a huge leg up in November. There would be no stopping her,” said the Democratic operative.

Any special election would be held between 110 and 150 days after a resignation. The primaries for the special election would be held between 75 and 105 days after any resignation.

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