sigler

1 hour ago, wahsan said:

Mostly in several annual USCIS reports its mentioned that there was low demand in those years without giving any number as it helped them reduce the pending backlog petitions in those years. 2 factors are also mentioned as reasons for low demand; 2007 3rd quarter application fee increase and recession in 2008. 

Makes sense, thanks. 

23 hours ago, wahsan said:

ROW F4 Movement: 12 Months Period FY (Oct 2018 - Sep 2019)

 

Days = 624

Weeks = 89

Months = 20.8

 

Probably the best year in recent history in terms for movement. Anybody expecting retrogression coming or there is low demand? History and data is suggesting low demand from mid 2007 till start of 2012. 

What data suggests low demand for the years you mentioned?

DHS Site

https://www.dhs.gov/...ns/msrsep03.pdf

This will be applicable to EB visas only and it would not be applicable for FB...So v will be still waiting

That's not what he said at all. The change would also be applicable to FB categories, but even with the change, the yearly quotas would still be exceeded, thus the need for cut-off dates would still remain. The PDs would move forward significantly though.

When does one get this invoice number you guys keep talking about? Is it after filling out the DS-260 form?

when he mentioned this news ????????/......i thk movement will be more than this..........

http://www.murthy.com/2013/11/01/visa-bulletin-predictions-family-based-categories/

According to Mr Charles Oppenheim, THE person behind the visa bulletin, F4 should move by about two weeks in the upcoming months.

So if your numbers are correct, there are about 1.4 Million ROW people waiting in line in the F4 category, and the annual number of visas for those countries is just over 51,000. However, given the long wait for the category, many people just don't pursue their permanent residency once their PD is up for various reasons. A lot of things can happen over 10-12 years that causes them not to finish their process. If every single one of them did, the wait for an application filed today would be 30 years. If half of them follow through with their application, the wait would be 15 years, which I think is closer to reality than 30 years.

But i think in future wait times will increase not only for F4 but also for F3.. Because first we must understand that there are only 65000 visas for F4. And according to Annual IV waiting list there are total 2.5 million applicants waiting in NVC.. it means 65000 visas will cover these applicants in minimum 35 years... even if u delete the heavily retrogress countries like Mexico, India and Philippines which makes up to 1.1 million approx.. than also 1.4 million applicants all over the world.. than also 22 year wait for normal countries... but on average it will take 25 years in future... i mean from now on.. if u c the bulletin.. Jan 2011 than wait was 11 year.. but now it is more than 12 years.. and wait is increasing.. and it will increase.. because of applicants..

If u c the visa bulletin of 1996 of F1 it was Current.. and F3 wait was just 2 or 3 years.. and now F1 wait is 7 years and F3 wait is more than 10 years..

So it all depends on Number of cases.. All those people whose PD is after 2004 for F4 the wait will be longer than 2002 PD. and same will apply for 2007 Pd.

Past waiting times are nothing but a really poor indication of what will happen in the future. Also, I'm not sure what kind of formula they use. In the last eleven years, the longest wait for F4 has been is roughly 12 years. That happened in 2002 and is happening now. Also, the wait appears to be very cyclical. I wouldn't pay attention to those prediction sites at all.

Well said, it was about time someone set things straight. Thank you

And the VB prediction section says we can expect a 3 to 5 week-movement per month through October.

All,

I tried to check this bill and there are some interesting points on this bill...as you all know it is a very lengthy and complicated bill and I can be wrong but this are few things I found out which interests us all....

page...105...line 3 onwards..

(2) BACK OF THE LINE.—The status of a registered provisional immigrant may not be adjusted to that of an alien lawfully admitted for permanent residence under this section until after the Secretary of State certifies that immigrant visas have become available for all approved petitions for immigrant visas that were filed under sections 201 and 203 before the date of the enactment of the Border Security, Economic Opportunity, and Immigration Modernization Act.

We fall under 203 clause and as per this current illegals can not become legal permanent resident till visa is available for all of us (approved) beneficiaries when this law is implemented

Page..269..Line 17 onwards...SEC. 2302. MERIT-BASED TRACK TWO.

it is lengthy one but as per my understanding this is how it is going to work...they will try to eliminate backlog as much as they can in 18 months...after October 2014, all the approved petitions under F4 and F3 will be automatically eligible under merit based track two..We don't need additional point system to qualify (there is some 5 year date logic in this which I think don't apply to us)...but as per my understanding we are automatically eligible as per eligibility rule 2 (page 270)...they will continue to issue visa till 2022 and beyond under new numerical limit of this track...

so in a nutshell...I think our biggest fear of being eliminated is not there....If most of us are lucky then we will get visa in 18 months..if not we will be qualified under track 2...also the first paragraph has mentioned no illegals will be able to become legal PR unless visa is available to all of us waiting in line...

I can be wrong and please let me know your comments!

I also read what I thought would be of concern to F4ers and my impressions were exactly the same as yours. Those who can't get their visas in the 18 month period following the enactment of the bill would fall under the tier two fo the merit-based system, which it apperas was created only for the purpose of eliminating all the backlog of applications. Let's wait and see.

Ok let's do some math..

127000 * 18months(for CIR enactment) = 2286000

How do you figure that? Isn't that 127,000 per year, and not per month??

Yeah, but the real question is, if they eliminate the F4 category, what will happen to the applications already filed?

I think we will see how fast our category will (or won't) move once the PD moves past April 30, 2001, for the reasons already explained in this topic. Hopefully that will be by either May or June, so hang tight.

Hey guys, quick question: if my file is already at the NVC, does it mean it is already approved? Thanks!

Hi, I would like to know if US citizen applied for brother in October 1,2010, when approximately will get approved from USCIS ? How long will it take for visa number to be available? I understand it takes years.

If there are no changes to the current rules, you're are looking at 2020-2024 before that priority date becomes current.

I'm sorry but that tracker says nothing regarding future movement predictions. The only thing is does is show a graph with historic waiting times, and looking at it it shows a relatively stable waiting time of 10-12 years historically. In my opinion, the only thing that can make us have to wait less is a major immigration system reform, which is not likely in the near future.

VB has been published, one week movement... Not what everyone was hoping for. Hopefully next month will bring better news...

Word is out that the October VB will be released on September 10th, good luck to all.

Not really, those immigrants won't be ale to file for anyone since, at first, they won't be neither citizens nor residents.... Just hoping that measure sparks some sort of immigration reform, we can only hope

Do you guys know of any websites that have information on how many F4 applications were actually filed by year, month, etc? That would be a good way to predict future VB movement...

Bulletin's out, less than one month movement... Not what we were hoping for. Forecast is for it to keep moving at this pace for the upcoming months.

VB is out, not what we were hoping for but at least there was movement. 1 month once again.

There's a prediction on the Bulletin saying that it is predicted that F4 will move forward up to a month on next month's VB... Let's wait and see

Historically, the Oct VB hasn't moved any more than any other month's bulletin just for being the start of the FY, don't understand why you guys think that this year will be any different... I'm not holding my breath. Hopefully the VB will prove me wrong.