dvanxiety

Yep. I'm not an expert about predicting the next VB.

I know it seems very dangerous for us who have the higher CNs.

But I'm still trying to convince myself there is a small chance to reach 12k even close to 13k.

I believe once Nepal is max out, the next VB could be a big jump as BritSimon's said.

Right now, nobody can be sure about that.

Good luck to us~!

Thanks Mike. Funny how I was thinking exactly the same.

If we look at last yr, Nepal max at 9500 in Aug, we have the jump to 12700 in the same month, not after.

In my calc, Nepal fir sure will max at 7150, yet the same month, the increment is very disappointing.

Even stranger, they didn't even exhaust Iran will has most cases done by 82-86xx, they call a number under by 1000CN.

By the way, are you doing CP at AIT?

CEAC data (Asia only) for someone who also cares this.

https://goo.gl/Bg7qJQ

Sorry, I just focus on Asia's CN with my high-number (~12k).

So far(6/14), AT LEAST 4495 visas have been issued for Asia.

Just wondering what the VO is thinking of at this point and whether they have flip the big jump from last yr.

I notice ur in Canada now. how is it over there? did u try the DV lottery and got an interview in Canada?

Thats interesting, because I have a UK passport, and my parents are not UK citizens...

Won DV 2015 and waiting for my interview, probably in Aug

As I mentioned above, they were never UK citizens.

Cool, so what passport are they holding when you are born? BNO, BDTC, other non Bristish travel doc?

As long as the are temp in UK, you should be fine. BDTC would be a fough one to argue tho.

geez man, I am sorry to tell you that you cannot cross charge to your parents.

I am from Hong Kong so let me see if I understand your situation fully.

Before 1997 Hong Kong is a Bristish colony and they have given 50k full UK citizenship to some Hong Konger.

This is not a permanent residence, but directly yo citizenship without any stay in uk requirement.

If your parents got their UK citizenship this way, then you cannot cross Charente to them since they are by no means temp residence of Uk when you are born.

Unless you have a partner who's born in Asian eligible country, assuming you got and AS number, then you might be able to cross charge to your partner.

Now, if your parents got a BNO, tha's a different as a BNO holder can only stay in the UK for 90 days if I remember correctly. if that's the case and your parents are temp in uk when you are born, then you should be fine.

It's hard to say and there are a lot of info that we don't know yet. Once the CEAC data is available, we will have a better idea.

Many folks think we have less selectees than 2015 and the cutoffs must be higher. This is not the case.

Assuming the same density, issue rate and AP clearing rate, we will have the same 8000 or so visa given to the 1st 13000 or so case numbers. Having 20000 or 23000 selectees makes no difference since the same 8000 or so visa still apply and from 13000 or so up to the highest CN will miss out.

Now, let's say the issue rate is lower, it can easily jump to 14000 or drop to 12000 say the AP clearing is much faster this year.

In fact, I asked the same question in another forum and no one answers yet.

I would not say it's risky, but it's not 100% safe either. Unless you are from Nepal or Iran, then it's very risky.

2015 should be more or less the same as 2014, meaning the regional quota are pretty much the same. There are many factor at play which we have no clue at the moment such as density and issue rate.

I will make no bone about this, your number is high and risky.

If I were you, I would probably keep all the documents at hand just in case a jump in the cut off. But definitely would not hold my breath on this case number.

Hi, My CN is 2015AF000106** meaning it's current but I didn't get message from KCC yet & I also checked online for possible schedule but I couldn't find any date or schedule for my case. When or how soon should I expect e-mail from KCC regarding my schedule since the bulletin is published?

if your DS260 is processed and your interview is scheduled, you should expect the 2NL around mid month to 2xth of the same month the VB is published.

There's delay in processing , so there are lots of folks waiting for 2NL even they are current. Once this backlog is cleared, we should see some improvement.

i just wonder if ASIA number not reach to my CN : AS171xx it mean that i will not able to get visa for DV 2015 and all my hope are gone ? when will the end of Cut off number month for ASIA for DV 2015

Correct , if the cutoff is not higher than your CN for the last VB in Sept 2015, no visa will be available.

The Sept 2015 VB will be published around mid July.

Mine is 2015AS129xx.

Otulai, glad to see someone from Mongolia.

129xx is not a bad number, I would say interview time should be about the same as last year.You might even even get it in Aug instead of Sept due to the quota from Nigeria.

Are you doing CP or AOS?

Good luck.

Help needed, on 10 Nov 2014 - 11:32 AM, said:

So is it possible for Asia to have 1,000+ type of jumps for the next few months? When they first published the cutoff number for October, I thought we could go faster this year than in 2013 and 2014!

My CN is AS67xx........what's my chance to get the interview in April?

Hi! Dvanxiety! Thank you very much for answering my questions. I am doing CP.

You are welcomed, I am happy to talk to someone from Mongolia. After you got your green card, you have to visit Canada. There's a restaurant call Mongolian Grill, but I am sure its quite different than the real deal : )

Hi dvanxiety, my case number is AS144XX and I am going to do AOS instead of CP. Will that make any difference of getting an interview? I think my interview most likely will be scheduled in September, is that correct? thanks!

Hello liews0524,

I am not familiar with AOS, so my advise is to look at AOS specific thread.From my understanding, AOS seems to have more back and forth with the FO and therefore carry some risk (FO see way less DV cases than foreign post doing CP). This is supported by issues reported by other AOS DV selectee.

And yes, it will most likely be Sept (Aug if we are luckily) before 14000 become current. Once we have the CEAC data, we will have better idea by understanding the desity and response rate of 2015.

Good luck.

So is it possible for Asia to have 1,000+ type of jumps for the next few months? When they first published the cutoff number for October, I thought we could go faster this year than in 2013 and 2014!

My CN is AS67xx........what's my chance to get the interview in April?

Finally there's someone from Taiwan ! On another forum we have a post for Hong Kon , Macau and Taiwan selectees.

Yes we are likely to see 1000+ CN increase in later months. My guess is that the CN jump will increase more around Mar to May time.

Once we have the CEAC data, we should have a better idea compared to 2014 CN progression.

Are you doing CP at the AIT?

Mine is 2015AS129xx.

Otulai, glad to see someone from Mongolia.

129xx is not a bad number, I would say interview time should be about the same as last year.You might even even get it in Aug instead of Sept due to the quota from Nigeria.

Are you doing CP or AOS?

Good luck.

So is it possible for Asia to have 1,000+ type of jumps for the next few months? When they first published the cutoff number for October, I thought we could go faster this year than in 2013 and 2014!

My CN is AS67xx........what's my chance to get the interview in April?

My guess is KCC gets to schedule a lot of AS and OC selectees in Jan, who have been current in the prior months (lots of folks have been current and still waiting for 2NL), hence the small movements.

To credit Britsimon's point, the general split for AS before 10000 has been 40% Nepal, 40% Iran and 20% Rest of Asia.

Now, the I guess most of the 80% (40% Nepal, 40% Iran) are handled by 4 posts. This certainly made the movement smaller than it should be due to interview capacity at each post.

Otulai, what's your CN?

hmm.........I would agree if I reside in HK.

There are other "hidden time" such as:

1. Bank draft clearing time ( Foreign bank draft to be cleared by HK police)
2. Mailing time, note the Hong Kong police do not mail the cert to applicant but the Embassy or CG (air mail mailing time from HK to north america is about 2 weeks)
3. And......like you said worry silly over nothing......local police could mess up your fingerprint, then Hong Kong police will contact you to have another set done

Given point 3 is quite an over-worry, it's the number one failing issue according to the officer I talked to over the phone

Anyway, I really appreciate your reply and effort to look into my question. Thanks Susie!

I don't know what the Fiji letter has to do with your case. The other attachment is the second notification letter, which will be on the website about 6-8 weeks before your interview, and of course you will not/can not get that earlier as there will be no interview scheduled before then... This is exactly the same as the case being "ready" that you talk about above. It just does not happen sooner than that, for a number of (fairly obvious?) reasons. If KCC had to spend time getting things for people who were not even scheduled months ahead of time they would never get anything done. By the way, this is nothing to do with the DS260, I did not receive anything at all in the mail from KCC for my case in DV2013.

Will Hong Kong police not accept a copy of your selection letter, which has your case number, plus the normal list of documents required? After all your selection letter has a link to that, just make it clear?

Also, to state the obvious, if the PC arrives at the consulate before your case file does they won't know what to do with it. And be sure you know when it expires even if you can order it advance so you don't have to end up doing it all over again.

you've made a good point!

the Hong Kong consulate is advising on their website - Please note that failure to apply for a police certificate at least 6 weeks before the scheduled interview date may result in a delay with processing the visa application.

So I'm concerned about the timing, the time from appointment letter to interview is not enough time for HK police to process.

I'm hoping to find means of getting a request form (of some sort from consulate hopefully). I am not looking to submit police check now, i will send request to HK police about 2 months prior (around April 2015), so my consulate will receive my certificate when my case is ready, the timing will be just right and I won't be put on AP due to missing police check.

As for the validity period, HK police said there's no expiration date, which mean it'll just be 1 year (as per US rule).

Also, I am contacting HK police now to see if the selection letter+checklist is sufficient for their processing.. [keeping my fingers crossed]

Different visa, we applied for I-129F. But the package from the US consulate arrived almost immediately (maybe 2 weeks after NOA2). You'll need that package for the police clearances as the Hong Kong Police will need the letter from the consulate in order to process the clearance. The medical also requires that package. We have not filled out the DS-160 yet as we are not yet 'READY' for the interview. My experience with the consulate here in HK has been appointments are really quick and I am expecting (perhaps unrealistically) that we can get the interview the same week. The police clearance may take you a week or so. I would think with Hong Kong you are close!

Wondering how you got the letter to request for HK police certificate? Did you receive a form/letter from the consulate in HK? Thanks!

I am a selectee for DV2015. I am gathering my documents, one of which is the police certificate from the Hong Kong police. HK police website stated the requirement for such "c) A photocopy of a letter from the relevant Consulate / Immigration Authority / Government Authority, which contains his or her name and clearly indicates that the production of the Certificate is required."

On the May selection letter, it states the authority, my name/case, but missing the statement that "police certificate is required"

On the appointment (interview) letter, I found samples (attached) and noticed the same issue (ie missing the statement that police certificate is required on the letter)

I contacted KCC, which they said they don't provide such, and we need to contact the consulate.

I contacted Montreal, and after numerous emails, they suggested using the DV interview checklist on their website... which is great, but it's not on a letter/form with my name or case #.

I actually went and contacted consulate in Hong Kong, who is aware of this particular requirement from the HK police. It is stated on the HK consulate website that 'applicants need a letter from NVC with the checklist". However, DV applications are not processed by NVC. I sent HK CG an email, and they said they could not find my case file, speculating that my case is not ready.

>> here is what i'm concerned

1) HK police takes at least 4 weeks to process and send the certificate to the consulate

2) HK police won't process unless I get the Letter/forum stating my name and the requirement for such

3) where do I get the letter, not KCC nor Montreal consulate

4) say I go in the interview (guessing ~July/August because of my high CN and trend from 2014) with that one missing piece, I will be put on AP. And only if the CO gives me the written letter that I am missing police check from HK, then I use that letter to proceed with the request >> this may be too late as embassy won't receive it till late sept (if not past)

5) I am thinking of changing my interview location to Hong Kong, but the response I get doesn't make sense too..

>>>>my case is not ready till the cutoff is called, which means HK consulate can't locate me till May/June. HK consulate should assist by then, but knowing HK police processing time, I still have missing doc when I go for interview. So again I am put on AP, and I will be stuck in HK because I want that piece of visa printed on my passport, which leaves me stranded because I still need to go back to my job in Canada.

So in whatever scenario, I will be put on AP regardless of which consulate office I go. This is ridiculous, I have been writing to HK police, US traveldoc, Ottawa/Montreal/HK consulate, and no one is giving me any information that I don't already know.. >> ie everyone keep writing back and ask me to read their DOS/dvselectee website [sorry i'm ranting here now..]

I need advice from any (past) Hong Kong DV winners, how did you guys get your police certificate from Hong Kong police?

>> 2015 is the year that we roll out with the DS-260 online form. So in the past, applicants would mail all documents to KCC. When your case is 'ready', you'll get letter from KCC is you have any document missing. >> so i think this might be sufficient (ie your name, gov't body, case #, and stated requirement)

So what about DV winners for 2015 with the online form, how or where to get such a request form/letter to fulfill HK police requirement?

Actually I am have been looking around, and found a police request form from US consulate in Suva, to be provided to the Fiji police (see 2nd attachment).. FYI I did send this as an example to Montreal, requesting for a form similar, and they deny me too.. seriously, i am very lost

Please advise! Anybody?!?

PoliceClearanceForm2_fiji.pdf