Alex2014

My prediction for Asia in Sep.

AS 18,000 except Nepal 11,000

The average nepalees cns in every 1000 cutoff is 360 case,

So according to my calculations nepla will end up at 10.5k

Its an estimate I might be wrong ...

According to the last data nepal will have 2800 cases up to june readys included so there its impossible to nepal to hit the limit under 10k cn range.

I would say around 11.5 !

vladek15425, what is your max cn for Nepal, 10.5k or 11.5k? I am confused.

We just don't know what KCC will do. When we expect Nepal and Iran to put into special cut off (just like special countries in EU and AF) but it never happen for many months hence it create a lot of disappointment to my fellow Asian. And now we don't expect any more special cut off and we just expect maxing out, who know maybe, just maybe they finally put Nepal into special cut off when we don't expect it at all. Another 2 mystery months are coming guys so stay tune with the bumpy ride.

No more bumpy ride! I want autobahn for next 2 months!

Unfortunatly the nepalees above 11.5k cn applications will all be dismissed, just like iran's case in 2013 on the 20th september.

But the rest of asia will benefit from those visas.

Let's wait and see.

Unfortunatly nepal was never put in special cut-off and it won't happen !

My guess is giving nepal +- 400 cases in each 1000 cn range, they will hit the country limit at about 11.5 because there will be some failures and non show ups !

So there will be a good jump in august and september...

Kcc will bargain on iran and nepal country limit .

I strongly believe so

Okay, as you said, Nepal will hit its country limit at about 11.5k and will never be put into special cut-off. Then, those selectees of Nepal above CN11.5k (some with cn in 12~13k) can get visas, right?(no special Nepal cut-off and Asian cut-off is above 11.5k) Is it logical for those Nepaleses above 11.5k to get visas after Nepal hits its limit at 11.5k as you said?

Or,do you suggest that the cut-off for the rest of Asia will be limited to 11.5k in Sep?

According to the last data nepal will have 2800 cases up to june readys included so there its impossible to nepal to hit the limit under 10k cn range.

I would say around 11.5 !

Nepal:10k is for Aug. 11k for Sep. Anyway, Nepal should be put into special cut-off (whatever it is) so that the cut-off of the rest of Asia can jump substantially.

Rest of Asia and Iran: a zero-sum game. If most of Iran AP can be cleared, then cut-off for the rest of Asia will be lower. If not, higher or even current.

Iran: 473 selectees per 1k(1~6500), 160 visa per 1k(1~5350).

At CN 9900, Iran should already have 4700 selectees interviewed. If respond rate is about 80%(6000*80%=4800), then Iran will soon max out (no more selectees for future interviews)

Nepal:391 selectees per 1k(1~6500), 349 visa per 1k(1~5350)

At CN 10700, Nepal should already have 4200 selectees interviewed. Although it will not max out, it will reach its country quota (about 3750 visa issued)

According to dalius, ABD updated its data of 5351~6500 on May 4, resulting in an increase of about 280 ready status more for Iran. Therefore, Iran has about 516 selectees per 1k (1~6500). At CN 9100, Iran should have about 4700 interviewees. We don't exactly know the response rate of Iran, but I guess that Iran will max out between the end of July and the early August. If Aug is not current for Asia, then there should be a big jump in cut-off for the rest of Asia while Nepal should be limited to below 10,000.

I have sure Nepal will hit the country limit either in Aug and Sept but I am not so sure about Iran. The speed of Iran AP clearing will decide whether Iran will hit their country limit or not.

I agree more with Kayend. The fate of high CN selectees from the rest of Asia depends primarily on the AP clearing rate of Iran.

As Kayend said, it usually takes 3 to 6 months to clear AP. If it holds true, then high CN selectees can definitely benefit from it.

If Nepal and Iran really take up to 70~75% of visas available for Asia in the end, I will call DV 2014 in Asia as "Duopoly Visa" rather than "Diversity Visa".

I don't think they will shoot for 3750 limit, they will do it for 3500. In DV13, Iran had more than 3500 is because all countries in Asia has been interviewed and Iran still has a lot of AP, so KCC used NACARA quota to fulfilled the AP cases. In DV14, it will not be the case because there are more demand than supply.

As a high CN selectee from the rest of Asia, I strongly hope that the extra NACARA quota will not be used by Nepal or Iran.

It will give more visas to selectees from the rest of Asia, meeting the spirit of "diversity."

However, it seems that there are no rules or regulations which disqualify Nepalese selectees from using NACARA quota.

Iran: 473 selectees per 1k(1~6500), 160 visa per 1k(1~5350).

At CN 9900, Iran should already have 4700 selectees interviewed. If respond rate is about 80%(6000*80%=4800), then Iran will soon max out (no more selectees for future interviews)

Nepal:391 selectees per 1k(1~6500), 349 visa per 1k(1~5350)

At CN 10700, Nepal should already have 4200 selectees interviewed. Although it will not max out, it will reach its country quota (about 3750 visa issued)

rafikbo76,

In DV 2013, it is said that there were missing (not complete) data in the first 3 months, so 600~700 per 1k.

In DV 2014, Nepal (KDU) consists of 2544 selectees (34.5%), Iran (ABD+ANK+YRV) consists of 3074 seclectees (41.7%), and others consist of 1753 selectees (23.8%) in the range of 1~6500.

As of May 1, ABD still had not updated (ready) its data from 5351~6500. However, I found that there were visa (didn't show ready on May 1) issued at ABD on May 8 from 5351~6500.

34.5% + 41.7 % is about equal to 80%.

On the basis of CEAC data, there are around 270 selectees per 1k from rest of Asia in the range of 1~7425.

However, there are about 157 issued visa per 1k for rest of Asia from 1~5350.

In the range of 1~5350, the success rate is about 58.2%, AP is 15.5%, ready (have not attended the scheduled interview) is 19.5%, and refused is 6.8% for rest of Asia.