szym
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Posts posted by szym
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Oops, already replied to him in his other thread instead of here. But once you submit the DS-260, you can view it but can't edit anything. But there is an "add applicant" button to start new DS-260s for each additional family member.
Yes, we can add an applicant, but we should also update our own DS-260 because of change in number of children.
When the child will be born we will also need a photo and a passport for the baby, so let's add another month of delay to get this done.
Correct me if I am wrong...
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It's not really a special situation, has happened to many people! You can either fill out now and send updated forms later or wait for the baby; if you have a high case number, submitting your forms in Sept/Oct 2014 won't make any difference to your interview date so you may prefer to wait till then as it will be less complicated to submit one set of forms that doesn't have to be updated later. Just don't forget to do it in all the excitement of the new baby!!!!
Sure. Thanks for the advice. -
So should I fill the DS-260 right now (without the newborn that will be born in Spetember 2014) and file another DS-260 (DS-260 update?) after the baby will be born?
Is it a normal thing to send updated DS-230? This year we will send DS-230 via internet, so will there be a possibility to update it once it was submitted?
I have a high CN number, so I want to be sure that everything is ok and I do not want to complicate the paperwork for KCC guys.
Maybe I should wait until the baby in born and then fill out and submit DS-230 for all familly members? I expect my interview in August/September 2015
I called the embassy in my country but the answer was like the lady never had such a situation and was not 100% sure. I wrote an e-mail to KCC but they wrote me back with general guidance that does not include my special situation.
Thanks in advance for all your answers.
I was writing about DS-260 (not DS-230 - my mistake, sorry)
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3. We are expecting another baby at the end of this summer, so the baby will be born after filing DS-260 and before interview. How to resolve this situation? Write something extra in DS-260 forms (that my wife is currently pregnant)?
** after the baby is born send a DS260 through for the baby, as well as updated ones for you and your wife (showing the baby as a new dependent)
So should I fill the DS-260 right now (without the newborn that will be born in Spetember 2014) and file another DS-260 (DS-260 update?) after the baby will be born?
Is it a normal thing to send updated DS-230? This year we will send DS-230 via internet, so will there be a possibility to update it once it was submitted?
I have a high CN number, so I want to be sure that everything is ok and I do not want to complicate the paperwork for KCC guys.
Maybe I should wait until the baby in born and then fill out and submit DS-230 for all familly members? I expect my interview in August/September 2015
I called the embassy in my country but the answer was like the lady never had such a situation and was not 100% sure. I wrote an e-mail to KCC but they wrote me back with general guidance that does not include my special situation.
Thanks in advance for all your answers.
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I know that DS-260 will be available for us on May 19th, but looking on the screenshots of DS-260 sample I have few questions.
I have a high CN so I need to prepare all documents precisely so (if I will get the chance to be on interview) my visa will be issued quickly (no AP) before Sept. 30th.
1. My passport has expired. I have to do a new one. It will take about 30 days in my country to get a new passport, so I was thinking about filling out the DS-260 forms after I get a new passport. Would it be a problem (sending DS-260 30days later)? Will it be beter to select some other travel document (for example ID from my country instead of passport?)
2. I have a 3-year-old baby. The baby does not have any ID. My country will issue only temporary ID/passport (because of low age) valid only for 1 year, so it will expire before the interview (I can only hope for interview in August or September 2015). What should I do in this case? Use birth certificate as travel document?
3. We are expecting another baby at the end of this summer, so the baby will be born after filing DS-260 and before interview. How to resolve this situation? Write something extra in DS-260 forms (that my wife is currently pregnant)?
4. I was in USA twice on a J1 visa. It was long time ago. When I was issued the second J1 visa, the first one was "cancelled without prejudice" (I have a large stamp on this visa in my passport). I thought it's nothing wrong (normaln procedure), but when I saw a question on DS-260: "Have any of your U.S. visas ever been cancelled or revoked" I had a second thought... Is "cancelled without prejudice" a normal procedure?
5. Somebody wrote that the faster you file DS-260 the sooner you will have your interview if your CN becomes current. Personally I don't think it is true, but if anybody has someting to say about it, than feel free to share your opinion...
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One of possible reasons why cases above 54000 are extremely rare could be because they just do not exists, and are typos or intentional disinformation. Anyway, in one of Russian forums with about 300 cases there is none avove 54000. That is still more than 0.1% though... Even one case out of 300 would be 0.3%.
I do not believe they exist, but even if they do exist that is not a uniform distribution anyway. That is my justification not to consider them.
Regarding 44xxx vs 45xxx CNs in Dv-15 I use German Tank Problem (search on wiki). Even if we do not see 45xxx cases yet, and we see just 44xxx cases, the expected max value is a little higher than that. The more cases total we see, the more expected max value is closer to the max value seen. With 100 cases if max value seen is 44999, then expected max value would be 45500. That is my justification to consider 45xxx number as max CN even though I have never seen numbers above 44xxx.
OK. I get it. Thanks for the info.
My number is 2015EU44xxx, so you can count me in to that 44xxx list
When can we expect CEAC data from DV2014 range 32950-36300 to see how many holes are in this range?
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The number of european CNs above 54000 in DV-14 is far less than 0.1% and is statistically not sound. They could be ignored in any kind of statistical calculations
Hm, why is it so, that at the end (highest CNs) we hardly can find a real CN? What is the reason for this?
I know that the density at low CNs is high, and later it decreases because special countries start maxing out. This would mean that at some point (once all special countries reach the end of their CNs) the density should be constant. So why at the end we have less than 0.1% real CNs?
What would you say about CNs in EU DV2015? Where is the point (CN) from which you would not include higher CNs in calculations. In DV2015 for EU we see a lot of 43xxx, some 44xxx and (I think) single numbers above 45xxx. I think there was only one guy from Italy with 47xxx, but I didn't hear about anyone else with 47xxx.
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I do not know how many holes will be in higher CNs than 32950 so I can not calculate it.
But personally I think CN around 2014EU45000 will have an interview in September (maybe even late August). I would give 95% of a chance for this to happen, so if I were you I would start worring about the paperwork. High CNs will have very little time until deadline (30th Sept). Make sure you are 100% prepared for your interview, so you will not end up in AP.
- R-evolution and urbanite
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I would like to know your comments on the following calculation for EU in DV2014:
1. Based on CEAC data we have so far we can count the real CNs in following CNs ranges:
CN range / real CNs inside this range
0-5k / 1614
5k-10k / 1667
10k-15k / 1626
15k-20k / 1356
20k-25k / 965
25k-30k / 945
The number of real CNs per range is decreasing if we go to high CNs.
2. Since we know that the further we go in CNs the more holes we have (less real CNs per range), we can say that from now on, there will be no more than 945 CNs per 5k CN range. This is the pesymistic approach. I will write:
30k-35k / 945
35k-40k / 945
40k-45k / 945
45k-50k / 945
50k-55k / 945
55k-57k / 378 (calculated proportionaly)
We will be correcting values above when we will have more CEAC data. I belive those numbers will be lower, because we will have more holes in high CNs. How many? We do not know now.
3. Adding all this real CNs we would end up with the value of 13276 real CNs for the whole 0-57000 CN range. 13276 real CNs for the whole range of 0-57000 CNs means that there is a 23,29% ratio of real CNs to all CNs. (I am surprised it is so low).
4. I've done a quick calculation that shows that we have a 76% sucess rate on interviews. That means 76% of the real CNs will get a visa. So we will have 13276 x 76% = 10089 visas issued to real CNs (not including familly members)
5. Those lucky ones have derivatives. The familly rate is about 2,2 for EU so there should be 22196 visas issued (10089 x 2,2 = 22196)
There won't be so many visas for EU, but we should remember that this value will ger lower if we will have more holes in high CNs.
Can anybody confirm those calculations are ok? Any comments?
How did those values look in past years? Ratio of real CNs to all CNs? Succes rate?
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I guess after the heavy weight countries start maxing out the density get lesser !
And also I think kcc schedules the majority in the first 10 months on the fiscal year !
I don't think so, because all CNs are assigned before the first interview.
So the density is also known before first interview. The density of CNs does not depend on interiew or visa issuance process.
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Thanks for the links. I cannot take this as statistical data (not enough data to be statisticaly revelant), but...
...but it might be true what you are writing because if we would take the CNs from DV2014 that we know, and divide it to 5k ranges than it looks like this:
range of CNs (example: 0-5k means EU0 - EU5000) -> real # of CNs inside this range
0-5k -> 1614 CNs
5k-10k -> 1667 CNs
10k-15k -> 1626 CNs
15k-20k -> 1356 CNs
20k-25k -> 965 CNs
25k-30k -> 945 CNs
... it is decreasing. Good news for high CNs.
The further we go, the more CNs is needed to issue the same amount of visas.I wonder how many CNs are in the last 5k range
Any guess why the real # of CNs is decreasing if we go to high CNs? What is the idea of this? Why is it so?
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Europa - max CN 2015EU0045000. Further, the density decreases.
Hm, any proof of that?
Do we know all selected CN for DV2015 in EU?
Where can I find this data?
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My self i used the succes rate of the 3 or four months of dv14 to calculate the quotas vs cns for each regions... But it was a total flop knowing that the first months the visa issuing rate was very slow!
In february the visa rate boomed up to 5k per month, so all my calcuations collapsed.
Thanks for your comments.
We should take into consideration that there are cases like 2014EU9. This very low number received his visas on 2nd May 2014. Why so late? There are more numbers like this. So I think the further we go in visa issuance process the more visas will be issued in one month, becuase we have a lot of delayed casses that finally can be solved.
Example for EU in DV2014:
First month: CN 1-8000. Visas Issued (including familly members): 4304. CN per visas rate: 1,85
Second month: CN 8000-9800. Visas Issued (including familly members): 984. CN per visas rate: 1,82
Third month: CN 9800-12500. Visas Issued (including familly members): 1357. CN per visas rate: 1,99
Fourth month: CN 12500-13200. Visas Issued (including familly members): 376. CN per visas rate: 1,86
Fifth month: CN 13200-16700. Visas Issued (including familly members): 1539. CN per visas rate: 2,27
Sixth month: CN 16700-20050. Visas Issued (including familly members): 1022. CN per visas rate: 3,27
Seventh month: CN 20500-25400. Visas Issued (including familly members): 1275. CN per visas rate: 4,19
We do not have data for more months.
High CN per visas rate in late months is because there is a lot of visas in AP and etc.
If we will re-check this data later than the CN per visa rate will be lower (for last 2 months), because for example AP will be finished for some cases.
The numbers above do not mean that for example in Seventh month (April) only 1275 visas were issued. It means that 1275 visas were issued so far for CN range 20500-25400. In reality more visas were issued in April, but there were also visas for others CN range.
I am counting for final CN per visas rate for EU at about 2,3 (average from all months on September 30th 2014), but I cannot estimate it statisticaly. Too many unknown factors.
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So you think CNs like mine and mijoro's have a chance in OC? (20xx). I just assumed we were toast.
My simplified assumption concerning % of visas issued can be wrong, but even taking into account 2% of visas to OC it would mean 1100 visas.
So far, till the end of April 315 visas were issued in OC (including familly members). 900 CN were used. That gives a factor of 2,85 CN per visa.
To get all 1100 visas OC needs: 1100 x 2,85CN = 3135 CN.
I might be wrong. We have to verify my assumptions
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Where did you get that data? Is it official? Are you 100% sure about this? SA have been using like 2% of DV issuances
That is my estimation, calculated on data from VB.
Example for DV2014:
- Total selectees: 140659
- number of selectees from SA: 4620
so,SA has 3,28% of selectees.
If we assume that SA will get 3,28% of total visas that will be 3,28% x 55.000visas = 1804 visas.
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Are you talking about actual visas or CN numbers ?
Yes, actual visas. That is only my prediction based on simple math.
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If we would make an assumption that % of visas issued is proportional to % of selectees, and 55k visas wille be issued than it would mean:
in DV2014 the following numbers of visas will be isssued:
EU 18217
AF: 24220
AS: 9099
NB: 9
OC: 1648
SA: 1806
in DV2015 the following numbers of visas will be isssued:
EU 17669
AF: 25620
AS: 8835
NB: 6
OC: 1104
SA: 1766
Any comments on the above values?
For example I know that AF has higher refuse rate so the assuption above is not accurate, but it is better than nothing...
Is there any correlation between selectees per region and visas available for that region?
In DV2015 Nigeria is ineligible. Where will those visas go to? AF or to the whole world? (proportionaly?)
If only to AF than it looks like African countries will benefit much more in DV2015. Am I right?
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% of selectees devided to regions in DV2014:
EU 33,12%
AF 44,04%
As 16,54%
NB 0,02%
OC 3,00%
SA 3,28%
% of selectees devided to regions in DV2015:
EU 32,12%
AF 46,58%
As 16,06%
NB 0,01%
OC 2,01%
SA 3,21%
That is good news to AF (2,5% rise).
Bad news to EU (loosing 1%)
If we would make an assumption that % of visas issued is proportional to % of selectees, and 55k visas wille be issued than it would mean:
in DV2014 the following numbers of visas will be isssued:
EU 18217
AF: 24220
AS: 9099
NB: 9
OC: 1648
SA: 1806
in DV2015 the following numbers of visas will be isssued:
EU 17669
AF: 25620
AS: 8835
NB: 6
OC: 1104
SA: 1766
Any comments on the above values?
For example I know that AF has higher refuse rate so the assuption above is not accurate, but it is better than nothing...
Is there any correlation between selectees per region and visas available for that region?
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Ok. So this data should be ok. I will do some calculations later this week or at weekend and I will let you know about my estimates for CN Cut-offs in DV2014 and DV2015.
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https://ceac.state.gov/CEACStatTracker/Status.aspx?eQs=o/iS8zDpeAKjMWCuebHqOw==
If you want to check visa status you enter 2014EU16 for example and it will display the status of the visa.
Dzieki
I see somebody is doing a hard job typing all the numbers. Respect...
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Rafik is extracting the data frome the CEAC system once a month after the bulletin...more less. The CEAC data is updated by consulates periodically, they try to have it uploaded before the bulletin but last month Nepal and Iran data was delayed.
How can I obtain current CEAC data from consulates? Where is the CEAC data source?
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2. Statistical breakdown by foreign-state chargeability vs selectees number in DV2015. Wchich is correct?
"Approximately 125,514 applicants have been registered" - ok, I get it, but...
..if we calculate the total selectees from "statistical brakdown" than we will have the following numbers:
AFRICA: 48010
ASIA: 20002
EUROPE: 40000
NORTH AMERICA: 14
OCEANIA: 3498
SOUTH AMERICA: 2667
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TOTAL: 114191
125,514-114191=11,323 missing?
Or is there someting I should know?
My calculations above are wrong. Proper ones below:
EU = 40 000
AF = 58 000
AS = 20 002
NB = 14
OC = 3 499
SA = 3 999
TOTAL: 125,514 so all is ok.
Sorry for my mistake.
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Franko gave us a good hope today, that we will hit current also this year, but personally I am not sure about it. I would like to do some calculations, and estimate the final Cut-Off Case Number for EU (and maybe later for all regions) in DV2014 and DV2015, but I would need help in verifying few hypothesis.
1. We have 55.000 visas available. True or not?
We can read in latest VB: "The NACARA stipulates that beginning with DV-99, and for as long as necessary, up to 5,000 of the 55,000 annually-allocated diversity visas will be made available for use under the NACARA program. This resulted in reduction of the DV-2014 annual limit to 50,000."
Honestly I do not understand.
"Up to" means some value, not a fixed one. So how can we say that 55,000 - some value (not a fixed value) = 50.000?Most of people I talked to like the 55k more than 50k, but we all would like as many visas as possible to be available for all of us, so I am afraid that we should make an assumption that we have 50k available (not 55k).
Personally, I think that more visas than 50k will be issued, but this will happen mostly because some inertia in the wole process of visa issuance (interviews). I think that the final value will be between 50k and 55k
2. Statistical breakdown by foreign-state chargeability vs selectees number in DV2015. Wchich is correct?
"Approximately 125,514 applicants have been registered" - ok, I get it, but...
..if we calculate the total selectees from "statistical brakdown" than we will have the following numbers:
AFRICA: 48010
ASIA: 20002
EUROPE: 40000
NORTH AMERICA: 14
OCEANIA: 3498
SOUTH AMERICA: 2667
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TOTAL: 114191
125,514-114191=11,323 missing?
Or is there someting I should know?
3. Do we have current data from DV2014? Where to obtain it?
I was using data from this spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_m-5eUaJfWH--B_FGegRKJAfc044SBzCfvUa3grPm4k/edit?pli=1#gid=29386064
Somebody who made it must import data from some source? What source is it? Is this spreadsheet a reliable data?
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If my understanding is correct I believe you are calculating one visa per one case number! If so than its incorrect,because CNs do include hidden family derivatives.
Exemple: if 2014EU01 has 4 family members and his visa is granted than it will count as 4 visas taken out of the 50k visas available...
What data are you using for 2013? Raevsky's one ?
Check again and let us know !
Thanks
My "Case Number per one visa" includes the familly factor.
10857 visas were issued (including familly members) and 25400 case number were interviewed.
25400/10857 = 2,34 case numbe per one visa.
This number includes all holes, refusals and familly factor.
CN for August are in? Can anybody confirm?
in Diversity Lottery Visas
Posted
Found on a small local forum (somebody called KCC).
EU 40150
AF 69300
OC 1450
SA 1550
Egypt 32250
AS 12700 (Nepal 9500)