On 7/21/2017 at 2:45 AM, Nazokat said:

2017 CEAC system available

The CEAC system has been updated with the case data. Interestingly this was made available at the exactly the same date as last year, and the year before.

This confirms my suspicion that there is a logic switch to only make the 2017 data available from 2017 (in pseudo code, show DV year data where year <= year extracted from sysdate). This is really BIZARRE programming – and as I have stated before the US government really needs some help on their IT side!!!

Anyway – a recap for those that are not aware of what the CEAC data is. CEAC is a government database/web page that allows people to enter their case number and get some basic status information. The site can be access at this link and you can enter the case number without leading zeros. So – if your number is 2017AF00012345, you would enter that as 2017AF12345. If you enter a real case (not a “hole”) a window pops up with some basic case status information. From this, for cases which are scheduled,  we can see the number of derivatives on each case, the embassy, the original entry date, last updated date and so on.

 

So what do the status codes mean.

The first status for every case is “AT NVC”. You can ignore the text on the case – the case has not been passed to NVC.  What this status means is that the case is in one of the following situations.

1. The case is not yet current.
2. The case is current, BUT the DS260 has not be submitted at all, or it was submitted but not processed yet – and therefore not scheduled.
3. The case is current, the form is processed, but it is waiting to be scheduled (typically because the cases have not yet been sent to the embassies yet).

“In Transit”

This status is shown for a brief period when KCC has scheduled the interview, and transferred the case to the embassy. However, the embassy has not yet updated CEAC to acknowledge they have received the case.

“READY”

This is the next status after in transit. It means the case has arrived at the embassy for interview. Sometimes a case will continue to show ready even after the interview.

“Issued”

Pretty obviously – this is the status we all want to see! The interview took place, was successful and the visa has been approved/issued.

“Refused”

This is the status no one wants to see, meaning the interview took place and the selectee was denied. A derivative can be refused, while the principal is approved. However, if the principal is refused – all the derivatives are refused also – even if the embassy fails to update CEAC.

“Administrative Processing”

This is when someone did not have all the documents at the interview OR some additional checks are needed before the case can be adjudicated. AP can last a few days or several months. The status updates during that time are meaningless.

Derivative number.

For cases that are scheduled we can see the related derivative numbers. Case 01 is the principal and derivatives are case 02, 03 and so on.

Just to be clear - the post above is a direct copy from my blog which specifically addresses DV lottery cases. So - some of it may be inaccurate for other types of visa. 

Some email addresses seem to cause the registration to fail. Open a gmail.com account and apply with that.

Why are you even worried??? As a US citizen you can sponsor your husband for a Green Card with very little difficulty. You would then leave the DV visa slot for another applicant!

Actually, I'm confused because there's two lines.

One says 2015EUXXXXX 01 LND - Administrative Processing

And the other says 2015EUXXXXX 02 LND - Ready

They both have the same date.

Should I assume my wife is ready and I'm the one on AP?

That means the case itself is in AP. It could be on you only or on the spouse as well (which would just mean a lazy CEAC update by the embassy) - but of course the spouse cannot be issued unless the AP for you is resolved. The ready status is the default status prior to an interview - it does not necessarily imply her case is ready for approval.

Really you predicted it? Can you please tell me what you think the highest cn for AF will be

Yes I predicted it, and explained the reasoning behind the predictions including the assumption that they would increase the pace a bit. However the pace (or perhaps capacity) seems somewhat fixed - and they are on target anyway. Here is where I predicted and explained.

http://britsimonsays.com/april-2nl-analysis/

In the past I have published final cutoff predictions (this post http://britsimonsays.com/dv2015-analysis/).I intend to revisit them and update those predictions. AF DS260 rate is much lower than other regions, but it is hard to imagine the numbers exceeding my max number by much. That would require 4 large VB increases, which does not look likely given that the already current numbers are currently supplying the majority of the interviews....

Hi DV winners (especially high CN winners) after analyzing this terrible Visa bulletin i came up with some facts that makes me think that this April VB is not accurate/official and contains errors!

Please read this facts with me and give me your ideas :

First : The release of this VB was very late March 14th when most bulletins released non late then 8th

Second : They did not sent email notification for subscribers atleast for me (did you guys received it??)

Third : they announced this note on their website!!

I hope am right in looking forward for an acceleration in the next VB

Thanks

Of course it is accurate and official! And in terms of the numbers - it was all predictable (I had predicted the numbers accurately and put "stretch" targets" on my website hoping they would push for a little more pace. So - nothing wrong or unusual - all explainable.

Hi,

my husband was selected in DV lottery. I just filed I-485 with all supporting documents. After few years of fights we decided we should get the divorce. He wants it ASAP. He's H1B visa, I'm on H4 visa. I was supporting his carrier for the past 5 years hoping that soon I can go back to work (I'm mechanical engineer).Now he says that he will not support my application and I can pack my bags and go back to my home country.

We have a daughter that's 5 and have been married for that long. I want to stay in US so she can have contact with her dad.

Is there anything that can be done except making amends with my husband?

That is a complete mess - it sounds like there is a lot of bitterness which is manifesting itself as control over your immigration status. To be honest - you both need to cut that ####### out right now - and I say both because these things take two. I'm not judging or inferring it is your fault, but I've been there - so I understand the dynamics. You are both going to realize in time that you are stuck with each other as a parenting team for the next 15/20 years at least. Eventually you WILL get to a respectful/calm place as co-parents. So, you can do that sooner or you can do that later - but sooner is much better for all concerned - especially the child.

So - how do you do that - get some counseling on how to handle the breakup of the relationship. Your priority should be the child. Period. You need to do what is best for the child including, if needed, swallowing some pride and anger. So - what will be best for the child will be for you both to live in the same country. In order to make that happen you probably both need your GC. In a divorce, the woman normally gets at least 50% custody, but your situation is complex as the child is a US citizen - so some counseling needs to take that into consideration. You both need to diffuse the situation and make a realistic plan of how you will co-parent the child. That will not go well if he wields his threat of your immigration status or your wield your threat of the obvious retaliation/outcome that he will not see his child. Let that go unspoken. You might want to agree some terms of a separation prior to an actual divorce

OK - as others have said, once you get the GC, you can divorce 5 minutes later.

You say he has filed the I485 - so I assume the case is already current - is that correct? Has he filed for you as well? As Mom says, his AoS process might not be approved without you along. He cannot revoke your H4 status, but an IO allowing him to adjust onto GC would put your status in limbo and frankly I would imagine a smart IO would simply tell him both adjust or none adjust.

So - you need some professional help. You have some immigration issues and family law issues. In your case a sensible cooperative attitude between you now will save a fortune in fees and end up with the best result. Start off with some counselling on how to break up the marriage without destroying 3 lives.

Good luck. I feel for you.

I am far from an expert. I am on that number too. I think we will be good. I am not saying that out of bias. It will be tight, theres no doubt about that but I am hopeful. March and April are huge months for us. If these bulletins are consistent with previous months i.e. 4/5k per month then we are good. We are hopeing for no halt in the numbers. I dont subscribe too much to these people predicting cut offs. In reality they dont know what people are going to decide to do with their lives!

That bit in bold makes me chuckle. It is quite obvious that an individual is going to make their own decision, and no one can predict that. But that is not what predictions are based on. It is group dynamics - large groups of people behave in predictable ways - and you encounter those scenarios and are managed by them every single day of your life - but you clearly don't even realize that fact. Normally only a young person would be that self centered, but from the 1983 I assume (by applying group dynamics and figuring out is is probably your birth year) you are 31/32 - which is surprisingly old to not have noticed something like that....

Meanwhile back in DV land - you seem to have done some predicting of your own to come up with the answer that you are comfortable at 40k - but that of course assumes that people will behave in certain predictable ways....

OK! So I have question.. My CN is 18** and I´m from South America.. I think my number is high-ish.. My question is: Nevertheless my number is high, would I still get the interview? Is there anyway to speed up the process if I have all my documentation ready?

Your number is high - the highest number for SA is 1969 so your number is certainly in a risky range - and no you are not certain to get an interview. There is no way to speed things up - you can only be interviewed when your number is current (and assuming your DS260 is fully processed).

Simon,

I didn't mind what you or Hank said. You made a perfectly legitimate point, and doing so again. You are quite right in pointing out factual stats as they apply to Iran cases. It is not helpful however to talk about Muslim terrorism and the fears of US against all Iranians when that is not the point. From my trolling of other Forums, I have found that the usual case for putting Iranians on AP stems from two main sources. the main one being if the applicants were employed by the Iranian Government at any point particularly if they served in the armed forces, which given the fact that all men are forced to do National Service and the Government being the largest employer in the country, usually translates to a high percentage of AP cases and also the police certificates are not available from Iran. The second main cause of AP is the lack of funds. A lot of Iranians put cash in the bank a few weeks before the interview, and then get a statement, and withdraw the funds soon after. To prevent this, the Embassy asks for further proof of income and sponsors etc. I have also now come across quite a few winners who lived outside of Iran from childhood, living in Canada and Europe, who have had their interview last year and even this year, and were approved on the day. So that seems quite reassuring. It seems that it is really the poor saps who live under the Iranian dictatorship who are given the hard time. If you take a look at my original question, it was really about whether the number had a chance of becoming current or not. I wasn't soliciting opinions about Americas views on terror and why all Iranians are considered a threat despite never having one Iranian national carry out any attacks, (The Sidney guy was a nut job and not a terrorist). The question you asked was valid as to why I thought I will not get put on AP. I still might, but nothing I can do about that, but then to make unsolicited point about radical Muslims is just pointless and unhelpful. What was that supposed to do? Make me say, "yes what is the point? lets not bother?"

Mustafa,

Perhaps you don't know this but SusieQQQ spends countless hours helping people of all races and religions in securing their Green Card. You are being too touchy about the word and frankly you couldn't be more wrong in suggesting Susie is unhelpful. I doubt you can find many examples in your life that devotes as much tiome as she does to helping complete strangers and for absolutely no pay. She has her Green Card - she is just here trying to help - so maybe you should consider that before being so snappy to her.

Now - why did she raise the point and is it applicable to you. She raised the point because you would have to be living under a rock to not have noticed very sad world events. There is, whether you think it is relevant or not, a fear and perception that a program such as the DV lottery provides an easy route for radicalized Muslims to come to "our" cities and attack us. The perception/fear is a reality, whether or not it is justified is another question entirely. Because of that fear/perception there are various things that increase your chances of AP.

There is a state sponsors of terrorism list - Iran is on that list.

There is a lesser publicized "T country" list - and that is mainly Muslim countries.

There is a no fly list which contains many names - and if your name on that list or even similar to or connected to any of those you can expect further checks to be made.

All the above are realities and Susie's comment about fears of radicalized Muslims is a "real world" factor that may come into play.

Working in your favor are some of the points that you have made about where you have been raised etc. If I had to guess, based on the few comments you have said I would guess you would not run into AP issues. I hope that is the case. Since your number is much lower than the predicted AS number and I'm guessing you are interviewing outside of the 3 embassies that serve most Iranian cases, you will, most likely, escape the perils of AP.

Good luck.

And I don't know why you feel you have to say something, when you don't have anything helpful to say!. I'm not dismissing all those I don't like, just yours.

You probably won't like this either, but I think you should know the full picture. I'm not sure why you thought the 7% limit being reached is normal - it actually only happened one time ever - 2013.

Last year all the Iranian cases became current. 6000 of them. Out of that only 2386 visas were issued to Iranians - so only 40% got through. There were massive numbers of AP cases left at the end of the year - around 1500+.

Just so you know...

Hi,

Just wanted to confirm something: If you are currently living outside of your country of residence (and you are over 16), BUT have only been living in that country for less than six months, you would not need to obtain a police report from that country’s authorities ahead of your interview, correct?

We just moved to Hong Kong recently and even our interview date will only be around 3.5 months into our move, so I though we would not need this, but the following statement on the Hong Kong-specific pdf file seems to suggest otherwise, or is at least a bit vague: “If you are over 16, police certificates are required from your country of residence for the past 6 months and from all countries in which you have lived for more than 12 months after age 16."

We are writing to the consulate as well, but they usually take some time to get back. In the meantime, anyone have experience with the above? TIA.

I don't understand what you think is vague.

Based on what you have said you will not need a police cert for Hong Kong, but you may need police certs for your home country and any other country where you lived for longer than 12 months. There are detailed instructions at the dvselectee page (link below) and you should read the reciprocity page for each country concerned.

http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/immigrate/diversity-visa/if-you-are-selected/prepare-supporting-documents.html

If you have dual citizenship you can apply as an Italian citizen, residing in Brazil and make sure you use the information contained in your Italian passport.

However, you can't apply based on your father's citizenship alone. You must be an Italian citizen yourself in order to apply.

Good luck!

That answer deserves a facepalm.

I have just been granted my DV visa and am super excited about moving to the US. However, I am 4.5 months pregnant. It will take a least another two months to wrap everything up before we can make the move. My husband lost his job before Christmas so it makes sense to move sooner rather than later.

We are terrified about the medical costs in the US. As I will arrive when I am over six months pregnant I am not sure how I will obtain health insurance without a waiting period? I don't know where to go to get advice on this. I called the immigration centre in Philly and they didn't know. Also the various government websites seem to have conflicting information (some saying that pregnant women would be covered under Medicaid , others saying there is a six month or a five year waiting period. The insurance site says three months waiting period before coverage kicks in). I am really confused and don't mind paying someone for proper advice on this matter. Has anyone got any experience in this area or know who I can talk to?

OK - options.

1. Medicaid. Just be aware that this is basic coverage in a country where Heathcare is normally BIG business. So - you won't get the highest levels of service.
2. Obamacare. You can get it - pre existing conditions don't render you ineligible (one of the important changes of ACA). However if you did go for that you would be wise to choose the most expensive plan available because you are obviously going to use it and the most expensive plans have the lowest out of pocket expenses. However - it's going to be expensive, well - you will think so - Americans will tell you it's cheap compared to what they think Healthcare actually costs.
3. Get over here for an activation trip now, then turn right around and have the baby in the UK. You have to enter to activate the GC within 6 months, and your pregnancy will limit your flying pretty soon, so you would have to get a move on. However, once you have had the baby, obtain a passport for the child and there is a special process to give the baby a GC upon your re-entry to the States (within the first 2 years of the child and must be the first re-entry after the birth).

If you do option 3 you can also make sure you have a scout around, get some contacts and so on and get your SSN and GC ready for when you go back after the baby is born. So that would make things easier. I strongly suggest option 3 has merit - but you would need to do that asap.

Hi all,

I am the recipient of a Diversity Visa, and now a Permanent Resident. I was wondering if anyone had any knowledge about the process of applying for a Re-Entry Permit? I'm currently in New York for three weeks and want to file the Re-Entry Permit (Form I-131). From what I understand, the process involves mailing in the Re-Entry Permit (Form I-131), receiving a Receipt in the mail, and then taking into the Receipt to a local USCIS Application Support Center and requesting to have my Biometrics done on the spot, without making an appointment, on the basis that I only have a short window in the United States. However, I've just called USCIS and been told that not all USCIS Application Support Centers will do Biometrics without an appointment, or at least without a more dramatic reason than I have for skipping an appointment. Then again, an attorney friend has told me that they will. Does anyone have any advice/experience?

Thanks,

Billy

From what you are saying, it seems like you haven't filed the I-131 yet - and in that case you won't have much luck with the Bio appointment. Once you have filed, you would get an appointment and some ASCs will allow you to do a "walk in" earlier than the bio appointment - especially if you have flight details to prove you are leaving. However you might not have time for all that before you leave.

If you only recently entered and activated your LPR status, you probably haven't received your GC yet, but the visa they stamped in your passport acts as your proof of status for the first 12 months after activation. You can leave for UP TO twelve months at a time without a re-entry permit. The re-entry permit can extend that for up to 24 months BUT you need to provide a good explanation of why you need to be out of the country that long, and the re-entry permit is not automatically granted - it can be denied.

Lastly, as an LPR you are expected to maintain residence in the USA and may be asked to prove that. They are more flexible during the first absence after activation (because they understand the need to tie up loose ends etc), but after that you have to be careful not to establish residency anywhere else, because that could lead to you losing your LPR status.

If you are a permanent resident, you do not need a re-entry permit. What documents do you have that show your PR status?

Yes he might need that for a longer absence.

Thanks Sam,

That's good to know. Not so worried about the AP. My main concern was not even getting an interview. There has been a lot of discussions where it was mentioned that Nepal and Iran are special case and may have early cut off, although that wasn't the case for Iran last year or the year before. What I'm still not sure about is when my case number becomes current (say around July) is that the time that I should expect the interview or will it be another couple of months AFTER the case becomes current? That is the time line that is not clear for me. If anyone has had that experience (especially from Iran) and can share, I would be grateful.Is it going to be a couple of weeks after becoming current or a couple of months, between becoming current and actually having the interview? I don't mean being notified of the date, actually having the interview, or does it depend on the embassy? Also would the fact that I submitted my DS260 in December make any difference given that the number isn't going to be current for at least 6 months? Any insight would be appreciated.

Thanks

M

Why are you not worried about the AP? Do you have reason to believe your case won't be subject to the AP (which is almost "standard" for Iranian cases). As Sam pointed out, AP cases from Iran took a LONG time in 2014 resulting in a massive decrease in visas issued for Iran for DV2014 compared to DV2013. So, if things stay the same, an Iranian case being interviewed in Jul/Aug/September and being put on AP is highly likely to time out.

How to understand the visa bulletin.

http://britsimonsays.com/read-visa-bulletin/

I think Susie is travelling at the moment - so I'll help out!!

Your form was submitted late - so even though your case number is current. you should not expect your 2NL for at least another moneth, perhaps 2 months. Likely interview date will be April or perhaps even May.

Very sorry to read that. Utterly avoidable, completely predictable outcome. :-(

As a US citizen your husband can petition for you immediately, there are unlimited visas for "immediate relatives" - no waiting time at all. It makes no sense at all to enter the lottery, wait until May to see if you won and then wait for processing between 1 to 2 years from now. Frankly, I would imagine a CO doing a DV interview in this scenario would be suspicious of the marriage anyway - since a married citizen would obviously want to take the shortest route to bring his/her spouse to the USA.

http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-through-family/green-card-immediate-relative-us-citizen

The data in the denial table posted in the previous link (sorry -- meant to quote and forgot!) actually does not document that embassies do not follow the same rules -- the only conclusion you can really draw from it is that some embassies process a few and some many DV applications. The law is the law is the law.....the difference in approval and denial rates have much more to do with the applicant pool that schedules in a particular place than any variation within the actually application of law between embassies. Yes, there might be an officer or two who have a misunderstanding or the requirements or does not understand an educational certificate for another country and how that compares to a US high school diploma, or something like that -- but it is not the main difference between embassies. Abu Dhabi serves as a regional IV processing post for several countries for which people are more likely to experience delays because of administrative processing, for example; if that AP doesn't clear in time, the visa cannot be issued. Just one example of why the data may not be as clear as some think.

That is a very naive view.

Let's just take one high volume country - arguably the most successful country in the DV process (the only country to max out in DV2014). Do you really believe that Nepal embassy sees the highest quality pool in terms of education, financial ability and so on. Many (possibly most) Nepalese entrants pay a small fee to agents there to help with the process. Nepal has a GDP of $1500 per head. Poverty guidelines say that they should have around $11k per adult to avoid question of being a public charge. That standard is almost impossible to apply in Nepal and we almost never hear about I-134 being required in interviews there. The only thing Nepal has is an almost legendary reputation for determination and hard working people, but that cannot (legally) be assumed in order to overcome the public charge requirements. So no, the law is not the law in all embassies and the data provides a not unsurprising view in to that reality.

Interesting fact. Among all the embassies that process more than a handful of cases annually, Abu Dhabi is the embassy with the highest rate of AP at the end of the year - which is the status you are on Yuce. Over 20% of cases processed during the year at Abu Dhabi failed to resolve their cases before year end in DV2014. The AP cases would have been cases where the selectees went to the interview ill prepared because they don't seem to have read the instructions or learned from more experienced people. That's a shame - and that is exactly why I picked up on your (incorrect) sweeping generalization. I'm sure you will be able to resolve your case, and it is great that you took the time to detail it for others to learn from - but let's be careful with broad statements if you aren't really sure of what you are talking about.

Want to see the denial data?

http://britsimonsays.com/?p=229

Good Morning,

No there is no such form needed for green card winners.

Oh that is interesting.

You should probably call them to take it out of the instruction FAQ (Question 37). Then they should take it out of the guidance manual that controls how COs work, (9 FAM 40.41) and they could just tear up the mathematical formulas that compare the stated income to the Federal Poverty Guidlines. That will save a lot of time. Then they should really stop asking for it at many of the embassies around the world. And since we are making this sweeping change based on your experience and statement, let's call all the people who get denied or put on AP each year for the lack of this document. Some of those people over the last few months will be mad as hell because not having it cost them their Green Card. But hey, if only the COs had listened to you rather than the rules, that mistake wouldn't have happened.

Sheesh.

Thanks for your concern, I am a DV 2014 selectee and CN is 2014AF00076071 rather.

Waiting please

Your case number has been removed from the CEAC database at some time over the last two weeks. I don't know what that means - no one will know. You will have to attend your appointment to find out.

So I got an e-mail back from KCC and they have accepted my request to change the interview location from Paris to London.

Thank you so much Britsimon and Susie, you just saved me a hell of a headache.

Good news!