lengygf

I thought what that means is ... Visa control offices are issuing visa numbers at a normal pace instead of holding back towards the end of the fiscal year...???

I think DS 260 won't be activated until you've submitted your COA and it gets processed.

I have been hoping for the same for several years... Mine PD is June 2003 and I am gonna age out in July,2016...

Thanks dude. I certainly hope that's true. I've been looking at that vietnamese forum for a while, too. I noticed that sometimes people had no idea about their priority date.
I would like to see another interview letter with PD after 02/22/2012 in order to confirm the possibility of 3 week movement. I always use this "double confirmation" rule in order not to be misled by rumors and not get disappointed after VB posted.

No sir, you are completely wrong.
1. 7% per country limit applies to the entire family immigration. Unused visa numbers can fall down from F1-F3 to F4. India doesn't have that many people, so its F4 can receive much more visa numbers. Last year it received about 8000 F4 visas. Check NVC website, they have visa statistics every year for every country.
2. Only Mexico and Philippines are suffering from 7% limit (i.e 4500 visas) for F4. They have too many people in other categories that each category can only have 7% of the worldwide quota.
3. New Delhi has much less people than that of Mumbai. I estimate that New Delhi will have about 150 F4 applicants in October.
Please stop posting ignorant content without even understanding the relevant immigration rule, and please improve your English skill so everyone can understand what you are trying to say. Thanks

I see - the underlined part
1) is based on the data I tabulated from I130 receipient published by USCIS. The average number of applications in 2002 is smaller than that of 2001. Of course, this is the total number of family based petititions, include immediate family members , F1, F2A,..... I am assuming proportion stays the same
2). think about this: how long does it usually take for an applicant to complete the case after receiving COA ? The fastest I saw was 2.5 months. Most take over 6 months because 1) they hire attorneys to handle all the steps, attorneys are always slow and lazy 2) they are not familiar with the procedure at all, thus they do things slowly. 3) in some countries, document issuing and mailing are extremely time - consuming.
I consider this variable (time it takes for an applicant to complete the case after receiving COA) follow a normal distribution curve, which is, a few of them complete the case within a short period of time (say 3 month), most take about 6 - 8 months, few takes longer (above 9 months). Then it's evident to see why F4 cutoff date is slow in 2001 - it has been 3 years since COA was issued. Every single application was almost complete, none of them got the visa yet since cutoff dates retrogressed immediately after reaching Jan 1st 2002.

No retrogression for F4 category will occur in the next 3 years. The May visa bulletin was talking about retrogression for F2A, which has been advancing at a fanatical pace in the past two years.
I was checking the number of applicants in India every month, the two week movement in recent months has caused a decreasing number of applicants (going to the interview), the number is also well below the monthly average in the past.
Cutoff dates for F4 is likely to advance 3 weeks next month. For July, August and September it will move 3 - 4 weeks every month. Currently the documentary qualified applicants is lining up to July 2002. (NVC issued COA up to July 2002). All cases has been stuck there for 3 years thus the demand is extremely high at this point because every single case is almost complete, and essentially none of them received the visa.
Once the cutoff date approaches July 2002,( say June 2002, which is likely to happen later this year, most likely November), NVC will start issuing new COAs to August 2002 onward applications. Once the cutoff date goes past July 2002, there will be fast movement for F4, because 1) only a small portion of August 2002 (and onward) applications can be completed in such a short period of time. 2) number of applications in 2002 is lower than that of 2001.
F3 is a very good example. COAs were issued up to April 2003 prior to the retrogression in 2010. At the beginning of this year, PD for F3 moved past April 2003; NVC start issung new COAs almost the same time, and we have been seeing fast movement in F3 ( 1.5 - 2 months per month), and recently June 2004 applications have already received COA (pending confirmation).

don't get excited dude, we are not there yet. Nobody after 11/08/2001 received anything. Neither do we understand the meaning of that 11/17/2001 post.

We need a vietnamese language specialist to interpret that post for us.
Google translation doesn't come up with meaningful information. However, if this dude with 11/17/2001 received I/L, it will be four weeks movement.
Now, with my "double confirmation" belief, we need one more person after 11/14/2001 receiving I/L to confirm the 4 week movement...

All:
I posted some data and analysis to show the effect of 2001 amnesty on the F4 cutoff dates. Please take a look and feel free to leave your comments:
http://www.visajourney.com/forums/topic/477060-f4-another-compelling-evidence-to-show-the-effect-of-2001-amnesty/?p=6777318

DOS published the FY 2013 Immigrant Visa Issuance ( including AOS). I tabulated the F4 visa numbers for countries that are considered major source of immigrants to U.S. Here is the surprising results. (Please click on the graph to enlarge it)
Graph 1. # Change in visa issurance


Graph 2. # changes by continent


Conclusion: Apparently, in FY 2013, a considerable amount of visa numbers were given to south/north american countries. These countries are major source of illegal immigrants in the U.S. Therefore, considering the fact that in FY 2013 the priority date for F4 was stuck around 05/01/2001 for almost 9 months, and that the deadline for that amnesty was 04/30/2001, it's clear that it is this amnesty that caused drastic slowdown in the movement of visa bulletin last year.

OK. I'm tired of seeing people using affirmative words to describe something that is currently completely unknown.
" ... congress WILL pass the CIR in xxx..."
" .... VB WILL move fast in xxx"
".... F4 immigration WILL be repealed in xxx"
" ..... VB WILL advance XXX months in XXX"
Guys, listen: If you are predicting something that may or may not happen in the future, do not use affirmative sentences like "will", "for sure", etc. You are simply spreading unrealistic optimism & pessimism that may or may not be the case. In other words, you are doing nothing but spreading unconfirmed, undocumented rumor that is likely to cause great panic and misjudgment for other forum members.
Nobody on this forum has the capability of predicting future events. Even the officers and staff at NVC or State Department won't make any prediction or judgement without proper knowledge on a specific subject.
If you want to convey some news & information from other news source, CITE THEM, just like you are writing an academic paper where you need to cite and do reference list for all sources that you used.

OK. I'm tired of seeing people using affirmative words to describe something that is currently completely unknown.
" ... congress WILL pass the CIR in xxx..."
" .... VB WILL move fast in xxx"
".... F4 immigration WILL be repealed in xxx"
" ..... VB WILL advance XXX months in XXX"
Guys, listen: If you are predicting something that may or may not happen in the future, do not use affirmative sentences like "will", "for sure", etc. You are simply spreading unrealistic optimism & pessimism that may or may not be the case. In other words, you are doing nothing but spreading unconfirmed, undocumented rumor that is likely to cause great panic and misjudgment for other forum members.
Nobody on this forum has the capability of predicting future events. Even the officers and staff at NVC or State Department won't make any prediction or judgement without proper knowledge on a specific subject.
If you want to convey some news & information from other news source, CITE THEM, just like you are writing an academic paper where you need to cite and do reference list for all sources that you used.

OK. I'm tired of seeing people using affirmative words to describe something that is currently completely unknown.
" ... congress WILL pass the CIR in xxx..."
" .... VB WILL move fast in xxx"
".... F4 immigration WILL be repealed in xxx"
" ..... VB WILL advance XXX months in XXX"
Guys, listen: If you are predicting something that may or may not happen in the future, do not use affirmative sentences like "will", "for sure", etc. You are simply spreading unrealistic optimism & pessimism that may or may not be the case. In other words, you are doing nothing but spreading unconfirmed, undocumented rumor that is likely to cause great panic and misjudgment for other forum members.
Nobody on this forum has the capability of predicting future events. Even the officers and staff at NVC or State Department won't make any prediction or judgement without proper knowledge on a specific subject.
If you want to convey some news & information from other news source, CITE THEM, just like you are writing an academic paper where you need to cite and do reference list for all sources that you used.

it's highly unlikely that the visa bulletin dates for F4 will "jump" in the coming months, although I believe it will move at a more normal & stable pace (say, 5-6 weeks/month). from the demand data and interview information I gathered, I have yet to see any trend of decreasing demand, while on the other hand the backlog before May 1st 2001 was nearly completely cleared.

i reviewed the immigration statistics at DHS library. From 1994 to 2012, there are 53,452 unused F4 immigrant visa numbers. If recapture will be done from 1992 to 2012, it is estimated that approximately 57,000 extra F4 visa numbers will be available during the next fiscal year. Using the same 7% per country rule, about extra 47,880 visa numbers will be available for ROW (countries except mexico and Philippines).
From my estimation, this extra 47,880 visa numbers will boost the F4 ROW priority dates about 8-11 months