PD movement prediction for family preference is as good as any guess. That is why I believe we barely hear any comments from lawyers. Due to lack of transparency from the visa office, Dept of State can cover up its mess with visa wastage or fudge numbers easily.
Some facts on NVC processing however can throw some light on what triggers movement. NVC, processes its application based on a Qualifying Date, a date which precedes the priority date by 8-12 months, by a guesstimate. In short,one can assume, a date which NVC gets a heads up for in order for consulate adjudication. Now, an efficient process is one where an application is not lying around awaiting action and I am sure NVC, wouldn't want case complete applications lying around, especially if the documents have certain validity, which includes tax returns, police clearance etc.
The current processing times released by USCIS is an indication of NVC trying to digest the spate of I-130 approvals for F2A resulting from approvals of approx 1 million I130, stuck in processing. This was generated by the "lack of demand" in 09-10 FY and was reported by 2010 CIS Ombudsman annual report. The lack of demand as suggested seems to be the lack of approved I130, not the application rate of I130 received by USCIS. So a wave of I130s reached NVC (in Nov 2011, DOS reported 322,636 F2A cases pending) and I believe till now and maybe a good part of this year and maybe even next would be task for NVC to get through those, sorting out which ones are active, moving cases who have become citizens, age out etc and getting through to case complete to send to consulates. The pushing back of I130 processing times for F2A is a good indication of it.
As we speak, in Mar 2012, a good 6 months after FY 11 is complete, DOS is yet to issue its annual report on FY 2011 on its family immigrant visa issuance data and a good reason is they are trying to fudge numbers and make their org look nice despite not utilizing the allotted 89000 visas allocated each year, which goes waste if not used in an FY.
Also, by regulation in a FY, the visa office allocates 25% of visa quotas to each quarter. Hence by Mar, end of second quarter, atleast 50% of visa quota should have been used.Not reaching the target would invariably make the PD jump in requirement to get close to the quota in the coming months to FY end in Sept, when the new quota kicks in. A 2.5 month jump in Apr is a fair indication of it.
All considered, processing time in USICS moving to Jan 2011(VSC) and Jun 2011(CSC) for I130 family based, a good year lag time, and an avg processing time of 3 months by NVC, I believe NVC is moving towards getting the PD close to 2 years from the current visa bulletin. Also given that we are coming to the last two quarters of the FY, and NVC having requested documents from beneficiaries for 2010 PD, as late as Dec 2010, there seems to be a strong possibility of movement to cover 2010 PDs in this year. I believe May - Sept would see longer strides in PD movement and hopefully would see PD of Dec 2010 by Dec 2012 visa bulletin. As always, it is a guess.
ashu got a reaction from pilapila in April 2012 Visa Bulletin Prediction