kumbahara

I did write to Ombudsman, Mr.Donahue and even USCIS chief counsel Mr.Legomsky and will continue to do it atleast once every month. To members feeling frustrated about not receiving a favorable response, I differ in my opinion. At least a letter to highlight the issue helped congresswoman Zoe Lofgren to accommodate V visas for F2A spouses, although it hasnt made it out of immigration subcommittee. The point is not that no one cares, hence stop all effort. Legislation take long times to craft and implement. If people think its as easy as button click, which is what some people have come to expect, its grossly misplaced.
What I have demanded and requested is write to authorities about making the process more transparent. Make the visa issuance data in each consulate accessible if not monthly, then quarterly, if not quarterly then bi annually at the least. That is not demanding to change the law at the least. But do understand that F2A spouses represent a very small minority in the immigration benefit backlog which doesnt get audience because not enough voices are heard, perhaps. I dont want to paint false hopes, but if there is something that can be done to help reduce the anxieties of ebb and flow of the PD each visa bulletin, it is through requesting to see the same demand data that visa office claims to move their calendar by. I suppose its fair to request that much. And finally of around 88K visas available where is it getting issued or why is there spillover to other categories is what we can aim to figure out through constant attempts to mail/email or call.
Its up to each to decide whether it helps their cause rather than to feel frustrated.

PD movement prediction for family preference is as good as any guess. That is why I believe we barely hear any comments from lawyers. Due to lack of transparency from the visa office, Dept of State can cover up its mess with visa wastage or fudge numbers easily.
Some facts on NVC processing however can throw some light on what triggers movement. NVC, processes its application based on a Qualifying Date, a date which precedes the priority date by 8-12 months, by a guesstimate. In short,one can assume, a date which NVC gets a heads up for in order for consulate adjudication. Now, an efficient process is one where an application is not lying around awaiting action and I am sure NVC, wouldn't want case complete applications lying around, especially if the documents have certain validity, which includes tax returns, police clearance etc.
The current processing times released by USCIS is an indication of NVC trying to digest the spate of I-130 approvals for F2A resulting from approvals of approx 1 million I130, stuck in processing. This was generated by the "lack of demand" in 09-10 FY and was reported by 2010 CIS Ombudsman annual report. The lack of demand as suggested seems to be the lack of approved I130, not the application rate of I130 received by USCIS. So a wave of I130s reached NVC (in Nov 2011, DOS reported 322,636 F2A cases pending) and I believe till now and maybe a good part of this year and maybe even next would be task for NVC to get through those, sorting out which ones are active, moving cases who have become citizens, age out etc and getting through to case complete to send to consulates. The pushing back of I130 processing times for F2A is a good indication of it.
As we speak, in Mar 2012, a good 6 months after FY 11 is complete, DOS is yet to issue its annual report on FY 2011 on its family immigrant visa issuance data and a good reason is they are trying to fudge numbers and make their org look nice despite not utilizing the allotted 89000 visas allocated each year, which goes waste if not used in an FY.
Also, by regulation in a FY, the visa office allocates 25% of visa quotas to each quarter. Hence by Mar, end of second quarter, atleast 50% of visa quota should have been used.Not reaching the target would invariably make the PD jump in requirement to get close to the quota in the coming months to FY end in Sept, when the new quota kicks in. A 2.5 month jump in Apr is a fair indication of it.
All considered, processing time in USICS moving to Jan 2011(VSC) and Jun 2011(CSC) for I130 family based, a good year lag time, and an avg processing time of 3 months by NVC, I believe NVC is moving towards getting the PD close to 2 years from the current visa bulletin. Also given that we are coming to the last two quarters of the FY, and NVC having requested documents from beneficiaries for 2010 PD, as late as Dec 2010, there seems to be a strong possibility of movement to cover 2010 PDs in this year. I believe May - Sept would see longer strides in PD movement and hopefully would see PD of Dec 2010 by Dec 2012 visa bulletin. As always, it is a guess.

The fact that there is no or little transparency in the DoS system to print out PD (priority dates) suggests clearly an flawed process. In all, it might be a defunct excel sheet on someone's desk that at best portrays to stakeholders that it is making an best effort guesstimate while its other reports lead us to believe an entirely different story.
My conclusion of the above stated argument stems from
1. Report of Visa Office 2010 - http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/statistics/statistics_5240.html
Per DoS stated limits, approx 88K visas (based on annual numerical limits - http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Web_Annual_Numerical_Limits.pdf )should be issued for F2A (My interest in F2A, since I have an application pending, PD May 2011). With the 7% numerical limit on per country basis, it should round to 6000 (approx). Look closely at visas issued in FY 2010 - India, for instance. It totals to 910 for non exempt, as opposed to the allocated 6000. Where does the rest of the visas flowed to - F4!
2. Operation of the Numerical Control Process report on DoS website - http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Immigrant%20Visa%20Control%20System_operation%20of.pdf
It states that the way VO determines the PD movement is by analyzing
a. Previous month usage from consulates and USCIS (I-485 adjudication)
b. Remaining visas (assuming from discussion above), the aforesaid numerical limits.
But wait a minute - VO does only account for pending applications based on 130 approval (for F2A cases) pending in NVC/NBC (National Visa/Benefits Center) or perhaps only approved cases from NVC.
Based on above, I just cant but doubt the means the VO is using to estimate the priority date might be even close to what it is supposed to be based on INA regulations. The lack of transparency aggravates the concern and seemingly is evident that the visas (atleast for F2A) are diverted to other categories owing to
1. Slow processing of USCIS on I130 applications and lack of system to try for premium processing, so as to not waste the visas that are supposed to be allocated in the first place.
2. Neglect on the part of CIS Ombudsman to highlight the flaws in the DoS methodology and a blatant lack of transparency on seemingly unpredictable modes of pushing PD and claiming "high demand" when year over year visas are being wasted while families suffer.
So while members may want to hope for realistic dates based on the reported demand, it may not be even close, since I think, DoS acts purely when it needs to submit reports/congressional hearings on why visas are being wasted, which is not even a topic of discussion currently. Last years jump perhaps owes it to CIS Ombudsman annual report that reported wastage of Family visas. Only perhaps when CIS ombudsman (http://www.dhs.gov/xabout/structure/cisomb.shtm) press on the need for publishing demand data for family visas, based on members like you, could help us even try and make sense of realistic situation of visas that may help in determining a realistic guess on Visa Bulletin dates may be possible!