Hello all,
I decided to do some data hacking since I was curious about when to expect my EAD. Also VJ sends me a weekly forecast and I was wondering how accurate and/or reliable it is. I was also curious to find out how consistent are timeframes listed on USCIS.
A little background: I filed AOS+EAD+AP on April 12th and had my Bio appt on May 18th. Since then VJ has sent me 5 EAD forecasts which average out to 11th of November, 2022. So I had some spare time and using VJ timeline resource I have compiled a CSV spreadsheet with ~200 rows of "filed", "noa", "bio appt", "approved", "card received" dates data. I then wrote a simple script in Python using Pandas Dataframes to allow easy date data manipulation and plotting.
Here are some stats:
- Median number of days between Filed & Approved = 202 days (71 days standard deviation)
- Median number of days between Filed & Card Received = 208 days (71 days standard deviation)
- The histogram below shows a frequency distribution of number of days since application was filed until card was received. I've split the data into 12 bins, each bin representing 1 month. As you can see there's a massive spike on 7th month and a VERY steep decline after 8th month (after 250 days).
Conclusion: my data wrangling, USCIS processing time estimates and averaged weekly VJ forecasts are all independent of each other but are all consistent which adds a lot of confidence to validity and trustability of these methods. Overall it looks like 7-8 months after filing is when I should expect to get approval/card received. Having filed on 04/2022 + 7 months = 11/2022 (November) sounds about right. November is exactly what VJ forecasts suggest as well.