Stock Market Talk

[mawilson 2,133]

You hit that to perfection! May want to consider getting back in around this 66 cent level? 66 is the middle bollinger band. I'm still holding but may get out soon....

It's almost there now...

Another good one is CHB around 55 cents...I'm thinking about jumping in but most of my money is tied up..

It's up massively in the last two days... think it's a good buy?

[웃 910]

You hit that to perfection! May want to consider getting back in around this 66 cent level? 66 is the middle bollinger band. I'm still holding but may get out soon....

It's almost there now...

Another good one is CHB around 55 cents...I'm thinking about jumping in but most of my money is tied up..

It's up massively in the last two days... think it's a good buy?

I'm not in CHB but it's trading at 56 as I write this. Seems a little volatile, definitely a ton of volume (especially compared to MPG). And might have some wild swings.

PCX reported today and they are up 3.5% while all the other coal stocks are down anywhere between 1 and 7%.

Also like LEE a lot going into earnings on Thursday. GCI went up 30% on earnings, MNI 40% when they reported, and MEG doubled on earnings. This news came out today and LEE went from down a few percent to up over 5% at current: http://www.azcentral.com/business/articles...newspapers.html

Not sure how LEE will do tomorrow but seems very strong, lot of buyers when it does dip. I do believe it will either go up or down slightly more than 25% on Thursday after earnings. All the others did and I expect LEE to do the same.

Edited July 28, 2009 by Confucian

[mRx 16]

May want to consider getting back in around this 66 cent level? 66 is the middle bollinger band. I'm still holding but may get out soon....

I considered setting a .66 limit. But their financial condition is pretty terrifying. Still, seems like it could be some short-term speculative fun.

[웃 910]

I am getting killed on PCX but still holding. I still think there is a good chance at double digits.

MPG is also down and they report on Monday so anything can happen, I'm taking this a day at a time and might get out Friday if things don't start to turn back up.

I had some extra money sitting around yesterday so decided to roll the dice and buy a VERY SMALL AMOUNT of CHB, which I am averaged in at about .545. I'm not very optimistic about this one (last trade went through at 46 cents) but what the hell! They report earnings on Friday and it could get very ugly or fly (my bet is it drops). Literally every 10 cent drop is only $140 so I'm not too concerned. It's looking to be a mistake but I'll know by Friday...

Even with CHB down 14%, MPG down 5%, and PCX down 5%, I am still up today overall because LEE is a beast.

Here is a snapshot of PCX at 12:30pm. I'm looking for a close above the support line:

[mawilson 2,133]

Even with CHB down 14%, MPG down 5%, and PCX down 5%, I am still up today overall because LEE is a beast.

Good thing I didn't buy CHB yesterday

MPG seems ok... I'll let it fall a bit further though before I go in again.

As for PCX... the entire energy sector is down today - oil, natural gas, coal, you name it.

[웃 910]

Updated chart on PCX. Most worried about this stock. It closed right at that support line which will drop to about $8.20 tomorrow. A couple of the technicals are pointed down and the MACD/PPO seem to be turning back downward. So far support has held and I do think if $10 breaks it will be very hard to go back into the single digits. That pSAR might flip bearish if PCX drops into the $7.70 range tomorrow. I might have to jump out around $7.50 if it does drop that low. That would be a 50% gain from my $5 buy. But I really badly want the double at $10 and it is sooo close!

MPG chart still looks nice. Good close today right at 70 cents. I think this could get a nice 15% one day pop soon.

LEE is going insane, it went up 18% today. Another newspaper stock (MNI) went up 44% today and usually LEE stays in close proximity to not only the % change but the price change. I was hoping LEE could keep up but I'm good with the 18%. Tomorrow is LEEs earnings so it could be crazy again. Here is LEEs chart. This is how the technicals on a chart will look after going from 50 cents to $2 in about 2 weeks. Everything looks just about perfect.

[웃 910]

Out of EVERYTHING except PCX (a company/stock I consider to be very safe and low risk).

But man oh man did LEE devour my account today! I was up so much that I assumed it was worth the risk to see what happened on earnings. At yesterdays close LEE was triple what I paid for it a few weeks ago and if they would have came out with a little bit more impressive earnings I probably would have gotten a quadruple. Instead they disappointed and are currently trading down 31%.

I'm gonna take a little bit of a breather...

Edited July 30, 2009 by Confucian

[mawilson 2,133]

Sorry to hear that, brother. Up 300% was a good time to sell...

[웃 910]

S&P500 closed at 1,003 with the Dow closing at 9,287 (I "called" 1000 and 9,300 by August 20th). Lucky guess and some good instincts I suppose. I am surprised the markets have gotten to this level so fast. Everyday the markets just keep going up and up. I have no idea where we head from here, but I don't think today was the top.

I got into BQI today at .915 or so....it closed at .89....here's the chart, I am hoping that the yellow support line holds which will be at about 87 cents tomorrow. If it falls through then I'd like to see the dotted green 85 cent support line hold which has been relatively stable. But the best case scenario is for BQI to break the thinner yellow line which is the down trend resistance line. If this happens then $1 will be next target, and if that breaks then BQI could really take off.

PCX went up 10% today and closed at $9.21. It looks like $10 resistance will be tested sometime hopefully in the very near future. There are so many shorts in PCX that there could be a nice short squeeze coming soon. I think they will start covering when $10 is broken:

Investors keep piling on short bets on coal, but go after power and gas, too

Investors began to more aggressively sell the energy sector short — or continued to do so, in the case of coal stocks — in the first half of July as the still slumping broader markets may have enticed short sellers just as Wall Street was about to hit another major surge in the second half of the month.

From June 30 to July 15, investors repeated their trend of adding short bets on most coal stocks in the SNL Energy Index, again hitting the sector with several major short position increases.

Many industry observers were predicting a challenging second-quarter earnings season for coal companies to start in the second half of July, with earnings marred by lower revenues and higher mining costs.

The run most prominently continued on Patriot Coal Corp.'s stock as short bets surged 488 basis points to 23.59% of shares outstanding, making it the most shorted energy stock by percentage of shares outstanding by more than eight percentage points. Shares of Patriot stock sold short increased by a massive 4.4 million shares in the first half of July, more than twice the amount of additional shares sold short for any other stock in the SNL Energy coverage universe.

Patriot's stock sank significantly in June and through the first half of July, but the company's traditional stockholders may have the last laugh as the stock surged back to early June levels by late July.

Interestingly, short bettors found the coal stocks they were already most heavily selling short to still be the most enticing to add even more short positions. Including Patriot, the five coal stocks with by far the highest percentage of shares outstanding sold short also experienced the five largest basis point increases in shares sold short in the first half of July.

Short bets on James River Coal Co. stock jumped 315 basis points to 15.27% of shares outstanding as of July 15, jumped 261 basis points on Alpha Natural Resources Inc. stock to 14.64% of shares outstanding, jumped 232 basis points on Massey Energy Co. stock to 13.83% of shares outstanding and jumped 119 basis points on Arch Coal Inc. stock to 13.18% of shares outstanding.

Unfortunately for short bettors, all of those stocks are up notably since July 15.

Edited August 3, 2009 by Confucian

[mawilson 2,133]

My UNG position really kicked аss today.

There are a lot of speculative shorts at the moment and they will get fuсked sooner or later;

I'm counting on it.

[웃 910]

MPG chart still looks nice. Good close today right at 70 cents. I think this could get a nice 15% one day pop soon.

MPG got a 21% gain today.

PCX and all the coals did poorly today. I'm still holding for now.

A stock I have been watching here and there is GGC. They did a reverse 1:25 split and were trading at around $6-$7/share last Wednesday (after the R/S). Exploded a couple hundred percent on Thursday to about $25 and I was thinking it would probably drop back significantly over the next couple days. It did drop to about $15 but then quickly got back to the mid-$20s. Anyways, today it went up as much as 90-something percent! Closed yesterday around $24 and had a high of the day today around $47! I tried to short it around $33 and fortunately no shares were available because a couple hours later it was trading above $47. I tried to short again around $45-$46 and still none were available; That would have been a good trade cause it dropped all the way back to below $30 but ended at $32.20. A really insane stock; from $6.xx to $47.19 in 5 trading days!

BQI had a nice finish today at 94 cents, which is exactly where the first resistance line is. Second is right around 99 cents/$1....The RSIs closed just above the 50 line, MACD/PPO are above the signal line and not far from the centerline, +/- DIs are just now diverging, AROONs look very nice, overall the chart is painting a very nice picture of what is around the corner...

It should be very enjoyable if $1 breaks...

Edited August 4, 2009 by Confucian

[웃 910]

Looks ready to pop:

Waiting for PCX to get charged up and start moving out of this $8 to $9.50 range...Expecting $10 or better by early next week:

Got into SCLN today, I try to stay away from these pharmaceutical stocks, but this looks good. They beat estimates, upgraded their earnings guidance, and the short interest has increased dramatically over the last couple months which will only benefit share price as they cover....

Here is the data (keep in mind it is 2 weeks old and shorts probably have well over 2 million shares by now)...

June 15th, 2009 = 282,495 shares short

June 30th, 2009 = 405,027 shares short

July 15th, 2009 = 1,747,375 shares short

July 30th, 2009 = <not yet updated>

Link: http://www.nasdaq.com/aspxcontent/shortint...p;selected=SCLN

And then there is MPG which I sold out of What I like about charts is they "comfort" me on a day a stock goes down. In other words, the stock price drops but the chart data doesn't really reflect the one or two negative days. This was basically the case with MPG but I didn't like the inconsistency in the way it traded (up to 77 cents then a day later down to 62 cents, then up to 75 cents, then back down to mid-60s). If it was a little more stable I'd probably still be in it Today over 2 million volume and another 15% gain:

[웃 910]

Finally the coals made a decent move today and as usual PCX gained the most out of all of them. PCX up 10.52% to close at $9.98/share, none of the others gained more than 8.5%.

LEE closed today at $2.40. I sold my 7500 shares and my dads 40,000 shares between $1.25 and $1.30 when they reported earnings two weeks ago. We were both averaged in around 62-65 cents. We made out with doubles but missed out on over $1 per share in profits if we (I) would have held. That means I'd have over $7,500 more in my account and my dad a GD $40,000 more in his account.

I let the LEE frustration get to me when they reported and traders reacted negatively (stock dropped 35%). Closed the previous day at $1.93 and had a day low of $1.22 when they reported. I sold right around the bottom which is funny cause I kept telling myself: "Don't sell here at $1.40, your going to be selling right at the bottom...Then don't sell here at $1.30, you'll be selling at the day low". Finally it got into the $1.20s and after seeing lots of profits disappear I decided I was more than happy at the time to settle for a double.

Now to make up for it I sold MPG for about a 14% gain (I had 8800 shares and I bought my dad 35,000 shares, both averaged around 56-58 cents). we both sold around 64 cents. MPG closed today at $1.13 with a day high of $1.20!

I do have a confession to make...I am decent on the charts BUT I have been getting these picks from a trusted friend, who also happens to be a very skilled trader, who gets them from his neighbor who is literally a stock master. He called LEE and MPG. Matter of fact, he even called PCX back in April at $6 and I bought then and sold a couple weeks later for $8. Then it ran to $10.90 and I watched it carefully fall down until it was under $6.50. Then I watched it like a hawk and when it dipped to $5.00 last month I bought in for the second time. In the after hours it's going for over $10 now and I think tomorrow it should close at least in the $10.20s but wouldn't be surprised to see upper $10s. The year to date high was in May at $10.90. I believe PCX will break that within days. Here are a couple of PCX charts, I've been talking about the 150 day exponential moving average as a critical resistance point. PCX hasn't closed above this resistance since September of 2007, until today:

Note the upper bollie (BB) at $9.94 today. PCX closed just barely above this. Often times stocks will "ride the upper bollie" for up to a couple weeks. The upper bollie line is very faint but if you take a good look you can see that PCX rode the upper bollie for the first half of May and most of July.

Edited August 13, 2009 by Confucian

[웃 910]

Believe it or not, the stock master I spoke of in the last post picked CHB today (I was in this and sold for a loss about a week or two ago)! It's down 17% to about .47/.48.....I caught it about 20 minutes ago and got a few shares in my account at .445 ... I'm going to load up if it falls back under .45 again....I wasn't able to get any in my dads account but hopefully it will come back down some more and his order will fill.

Edited August 14, 2009 by Confucian

[웃 910]

Just a recap, my friends neighbor is literally the best I have ever witnessed at finding stocks before they explode. Since I started this thread he picked LEE at 60 cents which hit $2.40s yesterday (4x). He also picked MPG around 55-60 cents which hit a day high of $1.20 yesterday (2x). Now time to see what happens with CHB! Let the fun begin!

Edited August 15, 2009 by Confucian