Gallup: Obama and McCain are still tied in traditional likely voter model

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PRINCETON, NJ -- Barack Obama's advantage over John McCain in the presidential race has again widened to 10 points among registered voters, 52% to 42%, in Gallup Poll Daily tracking from Oct. 16-18.

This is the first Gallup Poll Daily tracking report based on data collected entirely after Wednesday night's third and final presidential debate. McCain's current 42% support level is at the midpoint of the 41% to 43% range he has received over the past 18 days. Obama's 52% is at the upper end of the 48% to 52% range of support he has received over the same time period.

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Gallup is also looking at the race according to two likely voter scenarios. One, the traditional Gallup approach, takes into account voters' intention to participate in the current election as well as their voting history in previous presidential elections. Among this group, Obama leads McCain by three points, 49% to 46%. This is similar to Obama's standing among traditional likely voters over the past five days.

An alternate approach to defining likely voters uses only voters' self-professed likelihood to vote in 2008, and does not factor in whether they voted in past elections. This model assumes that new registrants and infrequent voters will be more heavily represented in the pool of voters who turn out on Election Day than has been the case historically. Among this more broadly defined likely voter group, Obama leads by seven points, 51% to 44%.

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The maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111232/Gallup-D...icant-Lead.aspx