Anna Hessler

1 hour ago, Aelius said:

Hey, could someone explain how to interpret these daily updates? If I'm not mistaken, I think the number on the left corresponds to the case numbers, which are chronological. But what does the rest mean? My case number is in the 132000 range (September 1st, 2021, and still no NOA2 yet). So, to take as an example the most recent update from a few hours ago:

 

 

Does this mean that, on Tuesday, 1 person in my range was approved and 1 was sent an RFE? And what does "new" mean? Like, it's new to what? And what does "in progress" mean? What is it that's in progress? (Aren't all our cases in progress?)

 

Thanks!

Yes, thats the case number. It goes chronologically but cases are not approved in a chronological order. In progress means it had an RFE before a decision. New means this is the first action taken on the case. 

13 minutes ago, Lynxyonok said:

It's a holiday, they are likely closed.

Today is absolutely not a holiday. Theres a chance they are closed today, which is what I was asking. I had the day off too, but it isn't a holiday. I got nothing for August and September though. And it looks like May and June also came up with nothing. 

Hoping for a good week next week! 

I scanned and didnt see a single thing for today? Did anyone else get the same result?

7 minutes ago, Syntax said:

Well when you put it that way, it seems very reasonable. Thanks for the insight!

Yeah! I genuinely don't think they're doing it to be devious. My partner's wife (my work partner that is!) is an immigration lawyer. Thats her best take on it and it makes sense to me too! You ever work in a big office? We can't get people to stop microwaving f$&*!ing fish, much less keep the papers neatly stacked. 🤣

18 hours ago, Syntax said:

One thing I’ve been wondering this entire time is why don’t they just approve/deny/RFE applications in the order they were received? Like the other day I saw there were some people with NOA1s in September 2021 that were approved while people with NOA1s in early August are still waiting. I’ve come to the conclusion that they do this to bring their average down (which is currently sitting at 15 months), but does anyone really have an answer for this?

Because I-129Fs are paper applications. Keeping 50,000 papers in exact order with 100+ people shuffling through them everyday is impossible. USCIS has never gone in order and likely won't. I don't think they do it to be nefarious, it just happens! 

9 hours ago, FilledesEtoiles said:

I saw a video in October, and they were at 86% of capacity and trying to reach 95% before end of December, because the hiring process is so slow. I agree that, unless a miracle happens, they will not reach the 6 month target. But not all people are on board yet, and they are still training some, so they may at least get to a break even point, or perhaps get back to 10 to 12 months by the end of FY23. 6 months would be really surprising though. 

Awesome! Thank you very much for that information! 

10 hours ago, Mr.So said:

Hi guys, is what she saying true?

 

The English grammar in this is so poor that I can't understand it. So I'm with the above commenter.

But we just spent three pages talking about how the backlog is growing. Genuinely not trying to be a downer here but, no, it is impossible for the I-129F processing time to be reduced to 6 months by September 2023. 

Unless something changes, the time will continue to grow. Not be reduced. And we have ben given zero indications of change. At the current rate, the backlog grows by about ~1/3 of a month per month. Given that there are about 10 months left in this fiscal year, we can expect the processing time to increase by another ~3.3 months by the end of the fiscal year. So, 18 months by September 2023. There are some people on here in other forums who are expecting it to reach nearly 22 months by the end of the fiscal year. Again, this is all if the processing speed does not increase. We saw the processing speed almost double with the new hires. But, those new hires are already onboarded and working and we are still seeing the backlog increase (just not as quickly). As far as I can tell, there hasn't been another large sum of money given to USCIS for even more employees. The money and hiring was a FY2022 project, so it's done. It looks like hiring is nearly complete, so the improvement is as good as it's going to get. (If anyone wants to fact check this or add anything please do!) They expected these new hires to help reduce the backlog, which is why they released those lofty goals, but that didn't happen.

Keep writing letters and try to get someone's attention. USCIS needs money and bodies to process cases. The best thing we can do is campaign for premium processing for family visas. 

7 hours ago, Elson George said:

I scanned through cases tracker indeed they have started September 4 approvals in 132000 range 

Oh fantastic! Weird, not sure why it didn’t come through for me. Maybe I scanned too early. Thanks! I’ll try again later. 

I just scanned September and found 5 RFEs for today, 4 November. I wouldn't call that "working on September" but gearing up for it!

I run numbers with a friend a few times a month. Heres a screenshot of our December data. Nothing is really going on. Check back in a few months and watch August for now.

And yes, you can always apply for the DV. However, the DV lottery rate has a ~0.4% chance of selection. 

Oh ####### thats November. Just kidding here is December. Hardly any difference!

13 minutes ago, FilledesEtoiles said:

I'm very bad at math, but how can they be improving if the processing times keep going up?
Does that mean that they are getting faster, but it is not showing yet?

 

They’re improving in the sense that they aren’t as bad as they were. 
 

They used to process 300 a week. Now they process ~700 per week. They need to do a minimum of ~850 per week for the backlog to STOP GROWING. For the backlog to be eliminated, we need 1000+. 

17 minutes ago, AndiB said:

I agree that the chances of it going to 6months feel close to nill unless a dramatic shift happens soon but the trend has improved. The amount being processed almost doubled from april to october this year. It's just that it's not enough to off set the backlog. I don't think they've just left K1's to die and I do think 6months seems very unrealistic unless they know something we don't that will equate to 1000+ cases processed per week soon, ie another doubling. They're definitely improving, we just have to hope it continues and maybe more rapidly than it has in the past. 

New staff and new technology takes forever to implement and from what I read on another forum here, USCIS has high turn over so even with a lot of new hires, it may not be as many as they'd hoped with others leaving.

And I agree with all of your points! Yes, processing speed doubled from this summer. Over the summer, they barely cleared 300 cases per week. That’s how the backlog nearly doubled and went from 7 months to 13. 
 

The backlog is still growing, just not as badly. They improved, but not enough. 

1 hour ago, Gary Rich said:

Good Day.. I just want to follow up on something that you are saying ( I'm not perfect here but I'll try ) USCIS push their waiting time up to 15 months ( correct ) So what if a person already has 12 or 13 months in.. ( right ) would that mean only an extra 2 or 3 months  will be added to the time in, in which the case would be at 15 months.. so in other words.. case's that are 10 , 11, 12 months in.. would only have to wait a few more months.. ( I'm hoping i made sense here) Thank you

The 15 month backlog means that they are working on cases submitted 15 months ago. 15 months ago is August 2021, so this is accurate. That is what they are processing right now. We know that from our scans. 
 

As far as when can you hope to have your month worked on? Almost impossible to tell because we can’t guarantee that their speeds stay the same. If their speed remains the same, December 2021 filers will see decisions in March 2023. IF speed stays the same. 

6 hours ago, Mr.So said:

At this rate how can they meet their goal of 6 months processing time by the end of 2023? Am I missing something?

They're not going to, unfortunately. And they never were going to. It wasn't a reasonable goal and we all knew it. It was just a government agency blowing smoke to placate people.

Reducing the backlog from 15 months to 6 months in less than a year would require nearly 2,500 cases processed per week. We barely clear 700. Theres a bunch of people analyzing numbers each week in addition to myself, and we all seem to have roughly similar data. If the trend continues (which, I don't see why it wouldn't. We haven't been given any indications of change.) the backlog will still grow by 0.25 - 0.5 months per month. I don't see the backlog going away at all, much less be reduced to something as low as 6 months. 

I hate to be the negative downer, but unfortunately this is just the reality of it. K1 visas are not a priority to USCIS. If you watch the latest USCIS videos, the "fireside chat," it is an hour and 15 minutes of them patting themselves on the back with how great they did in FY2022. They talk about what a great job they did with the work visas and not allowing EADs to expire. I personally think the only thing we can hope for is premium processing offered for K1s. I'm not sure if they'll ever do it though. I'd certainly pay $10k to not have to wait ~18+ months. 

Again, very sorry to give nothing but bad news. It's not fun for me either. 

Hi everyone. My name is Anna, I am the US petitioner. I help run a FB group and we do weekly number analyses. Happy to help with any of the numbers if needed.