Don’t buy the media hype over the new China virus

[Voice of Reason 10,298]

Quote

It’s called “drama,” which is badly needed, because there appears to be nothing very special about this outbreak of the 2019-nCoV or Wuhan ­virus. It should actually be called the DvV, or Déjà vu Virus, because we have been through these hysterias before. Over and over. Heterosexual AIDS, Ebola repeatedly, the H1N1 swine flu that was actually vastly milder than the regular flu and, especially, severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in 2003.

 

Once you start debunking mass hysteria over outbreaks, it gets easy, because the same patterns repeat themselves.

 

https://nypost.com/2020/01/23/dont-buy-the-media-hype-over-the-new-china-virus/

[Dashinka 23,235]

Always love a Monty Python reference in an article.  Seriously though, we are watching this one closely since the wife will be transiting China in a few weeks and I will be following three weeks later.  As I mentioned in the other thread, I was in China back in mid December, in Shanghai, and two days after returning developed a cold (I wonder how many folks from Wuhan were on the China Eastern flight from Shanghai to Chicago).  Who knows, but this cold was a bit different being that it included a dry cough that persisted for a little more than three weeks. Anyway, I will keep a watch.

 

But while they want you to remember SARS as akin to the Black Death with cries of “Bring out your dead!,”

 

 

 

[Voice of Reason 10,298]

Bear in mind that every flight on a plane, regardless of size, you are basically crammed into an aluminum "sausage tube" with a large percentage of recirculated air.  And every single person on said plane is exhaling their particular germs.  And many people are too stupid to stay home when they get sick, or cannot afford to book a later flight (same result either way).  Before you fly, I highly recommend infusing your soul with Airborne or mega doses of vitamin C (Help me out here, @Steeleballz).  Anything to bolster your immune system before you climb aboard.  

[Voice of Reason 10,298]

ETA: As I was typing, I could not remember the other one I hear used a lot... Emergen-C (or something like that)

[Steeleballz 7,550]

13 minutes ago, ALFKAD said:

Bear in mind that every flight on a plane, regardless of size, you are basically crammed into an aluminum "sausage tube" with a large percentage of recirculated air.  And every single person on said plane is exhaling their particular germs.  And many people are too stupid to stay home when they get sick, or cannot afford to book a later flight (same result either way).  Before you fly, I highly recommend infusing your soul with Airborne or mega doses of vitamin C (Help me out here, @Steeleballz).  Anything to bolster your immune system before you climb aboard.  

 

   What you said sounds pretty good. Maybe pray too if that's your thing. I would just avoid air travel if possible when something like this is happening. 

[Neonred 3,446]

11 hours ago, ALFKAD said:

ETA: As I was typing, I could not remember the other one I hear used a lot... Emergen-C (or something like that)

Maybe a mask?  Pay no attention to the people staring at you.  Just tell them you have Tb.

[Dashinka 23,235]

1 hour ago, Neonred said:

Maybe a mask?  Pay no attention to the people staring at you.  Just tell them you have Tb.

Masks are very common in China and Korea, so I don’t think there will be a lot of staring.

[Neonred 3,446]

3 minutes ago, Bill & Katya said:

Masks are very common in China and Korea, so I don’t think there will be a lot of staring.

Yes, I have seen that and always thought it was a little strange.

[yuna628 9,528]

To a degree this year, based on figures from the CDC, the regular flu has been pretty potent this year and has killed a high number of persons. Whether that's because less are getting the vax, or it hasn't been effective, or this strain has been tough to beat. That being said, China is not, by any account telling the truth about the numbers that are infected and dying... that will skew things statistically. And as you can see, the virus has quickly spread as it has taken on characteristics that SARS did not have. The big SARS outbreak, required so-called 'superspreaders'. nCoV, can now spread through everyone and infecting even though the host is not symptomatic. It's also not a very pleasant way to die, and your decent to death is fairly rapid. Some very good scientists in the UK have been working out numbers that they feel is closer to the correct statistic. 1 person can spread it to about 2.6 persons, and so on and so on. Another thing we don't know... are persons dying because it is *that* lethal, or are they dying because of poor treatment? At best, some studies show the most that can be done is supportive care - and the patient either lives or dies very quickly. Gilead has developed some promising anti-virals (that are typically used for Hep patients) but they cost mega-dollars. There is no way to avoid becoming sick it seems if in contact, and many health workers have contracted it.

 

I know the article pokes fun at a reporter wearing a mask. But honestly? I'd be doing that too. There is not a lot known about the virus to begin with. Even if it is not effective, it will make the person wearing it feel psychologically safer. There is also a suggestion the virus can live on objects for long periods of time. Shipments out of Wuhan are still being handled by the postal service and suppliers. And yes, we've been through hysterias. The fact is though H1N1 did kill many people (including seemingly healthy persons), and I can personally attest, as an immuno-compromised person - I was much more extremely ill than an average flu.

 

There is limited info on the patients that are 'doing well'. I would hope their odds will be better in more developed countries with solid controls. Even in China vague reports of a person being 'cured' or even stable, are nearly non-existing. My point is, the author of the article is speaking too soon and going off of pretty bogus figures out of China. Some scientists have urged caution not to overhype, while at the same time stating we cannot downplay it either. Hopkins recently ran some simulations on this very virus - and the results weren't good. At this time there's no way I'd be getting on a plane anyway.. and no amount of vitamin is likely going to save you if you encountered someone with this infection.

[Ban Hammer 12,835]

2 hours ago, Neonred said:

Maybe a mask?  Pay no attention to the people staring at you.  Just tell them you have Tb.

or tell them you're an antifa leader.

[yuna628 9,528]

52 minutes ago, Neonred said:

Yes, I have seen that and always thought it was a little strange.

Good explainer here: https://qz.com/299003/a-quick-history-of-why-asians-wear-surgical-masks-in-public/

I was also told it was seen as being polite to other people when ill.

[Voice of Reason 10,298]

1 hour ago, Neonred said:

Yes, I have seen that and always thought it was a little strange.

It's strange in the US, but very common in Asia.  Sick people wear the masks to try to limit the spread of their illness.  The mask does more to prevent the ill person from spraying out germs than it does to protect one from breathing in the germs, obviously.  Not really sure how effective it is, but something is better than nothing, eh?  

A side benefit is that it tends to hide the drool when one is sleeping on a plane.  😎

[Voice of Reason 10,298]

1 hour ago, yuna628 said:

To a degree this year, based on figures from the CDC, the regular flu has been pretty potent this year and has killed a high number of persons. Whether that's because less are getting the vax, or it hasn't been effective, or this strain has been tough to beat. That being said, China is not, by any account telling the truth about the numbers that are infected and dying... that will skew things statistically. And as you can see, the virus has quickly spread as it has taken on characteristics that SARS did not have. The big SARS outbreak, required so-called 'superspreaders'. nCoV, can now spread through everyone and infecting even though the host is not symptomatic. It's also not a very pleasant way to die, and your decent to death is fairly rapid. Some very good scientists in the UK have been working out numbers that they feel is closer to the correct statistic. 1 person can spread it to about 2.6 persons, and so on and so on. Another thing we don't know... are persons dying because it is *that* lethal, or are they dying because of poor treatment? At best, some studies show the most that can be done is supportive care - and the patient either lives or dies very quickly. Gilead has developed some promising anti-virals (that are typically used for Hep patients) but they cost mega-dollars. There is no way to avoid becoming sick it seems if in contact, and many health workers have contracted it.

 

I know the article pokes fun at a reporter wearing a mask. But honestly? I'd be doing that too. There is not a lot known about the virus to begin with. Even if it is not effective, it will make the person wearing it feel psychologically safer. There is also a suggestion the virus can live on objects for long periods of time. Shipments out of Wuhan are still being handled by the postal service and suppliers. And yes, we've been through hysterias. The fact is though H1N1 did kill many people (including seemingly healthy persons), and I can personally attest, as an immuno-compromised person - I was much more extremely ill than an average flu.

 

There is limited info on the patients that are 'doing well'. I would hope their odds will be better in more developed countries with solid controls. Even in China vague reports of a person being 'cured' or even stable, are nearly non-existing. My point is, the author of the article is speaking too soon and going off of pretty bogus figures out of China. Some scientists have urged caution not to overhype, while at the same time stating we cannot downplay it either. Hopkins recently ran some simulations on this very virus - and the results weren't good. At this time there's no way I'd be getting on a plane anyway.. and no amount of vitamin is likely going to save you if you encountered someone with this infection.

I agree it is far too early to predict it won't become a pandemic.  Thus far, the three cases in the US seem to be recovering.  Obviously, China will suffer more deaths due to it being centered there.

[Dashinka 23,235]

1 hour ago, yuna628 said:

Good explainer here: https://qz.com/299003/a-quick-history-of-why-asians-wear-surgical-masks-in-public/

I was also told it was seen as being polite to other people when ill.

Many folks in Korea wear them due to the pollution that comes across the Yellow Sea.  A lot of particulate matter coming from China.

[Burnt Reynolds 5,058]

Maybe can fly the pathogen to LA and SF and it could have a battle with typhus to see who's the mightiest pathogen. Winner gets sanctuary status and a free California DL.