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Michael2017

Potentially bad news for Visa Bulletin Movement

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Filed: F-2A Visa Country: Germany
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I had a couple of hours free this weekend and started to read USCIS statistics.

While I could not find statistics that show I-130 petitions by exact category, the stats show data for Immediate Relatives and Other Relatives for whom I-130s have been filed.

Guessing that the distribution of petition remains approx. the same over the past year. I had to find out that in 2016, about 18% more petitions had been filed compared

to 2015 (or 2014). The VB was stable for F2A in 2016 compared to 2015, so where petitions. Chances are that e.g. F2A visas will slow down by about 20%, meaning,

I predict a fiscal year movement of only 8.5-9 months for the full year. It seems that the election year caused a large spark in petitions.

 

The numbers are as follows

 

2016 I130s

Immediate relative 632k

Total 933

 

2015 I130s

IR 541k

TT 785k

 

2014 I130s

IR 522

TT 770k

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Filed: K-1 Visa Country: Wales
Timeline

That has been the general trend for many years and will likely continue unless there is Comprehensive Reform.

“If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.”

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Filed: Citizen (apr) Country: Taiwan
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When will they have data for the 3rd qtr ready?

"The US immigration process requires a great deal of knowledge, planning, time, patience, and a significant amount of money.  It is quite a journey!"

- Some old child of the 50's & 60's on his laptop 

 

Senior Master Sergeant, US Air Force- Retired (after 20+ years)- Missile Systems Maintenance & Titan 2 ICBM Launch Crew Duty (200+ Alert tours)

Registered Nurse- Retired- I practiced in the areas of Labor & Delivery, Home Health, Adolescent Psych, & Adult Psych.

IT Professional- Retired- Web Site Design, Hardware Maintenance, Compound Pharmacy Software Trainer, On-site go live support, Database Manager, App Designer.

______________________________________

August 7, 2022: Wife filed N-400 Online under 5 year rule.

November 10, 2022: Received "Interview is scheduled" letter.

December 12, 2022:  Received email from Dallas office informing me (spouse) to be there for combo interview.

December 14, 2022: Combo Interview for I-751 and N-400 Conducted.

January 26, 2023: Wife's Oath Ceremony completed at the Plano Event Center, Plano, Texas!!!😁

February 6, 2023: Wife's Passport Application submitted in Dallas, Texas.

March 21, 2023:   Wife's Passport Delivered!!!!

May 15, 2023 (about):  Naturalization Certificate returned from Passport agency!!

 

In summary, it took 13 months for approval of the CR-1.  It took 44 months for approval of the I-751.  It took 4 months for approval of the N-400.   It took 172 days from N-400 application to Oath Ceremony.   It took 6 weeks for Passport, then 7 additional weeks for return of wife's Naturalization Certificate.. 
 

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Filed: Country: India
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Change in administration has created lot of backlog in every category because lot of people applied thinking that immigration policies will change that will affect them negatively. You will see more backlog in family categories as a new bill was proposed to have point based immigration.

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Filed: Citizen (apr) Country: Taiwan
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Just now, cd37 said:

Change in administration has created lot of backlog in every category because lot of people applied thinking that immigration policies will change that will affect them negatively. You will see more backlog in family categories as a new bill was proposed to have point based immigration.

but the backlog existed months before the election.

"The US immigration process requires a great deal of knowledge, planning, time, patience, and a significant amount of money.  It is quite a journey!"

- Some old child of the 50's & 60's on his laptop 

 

Senior Master Sergeant, US Air Force- Retired (after 20+ years)- Missile Systems Maintenance & Titan 2 ICBM Launch Crew Duty (200+ Alert tours)

Registered Nurse- Retired- I practiced in the areas of Labor & Delivery, Home Health, Adolescent Psych, & Adult Psych.

IT Professional- Retired- Web Site Design, Hardware Maintenance, Compound Pharmacy Software Trainer, On-site go live support, Database Manager, App Designer.

______________________________________

August 7, 2022: Wife filed N-400 Online under 5 year rule.

November 10, 2022: Received "Interview is scheduled" letter.

December 12, 2022:  Received email from Dallas office informing me (spouse) to be there for combo interview.

December 14, 2022: Combo Interview for I-751 and N-400 Conducted.

January 26, 2023: Wife's Oath Ceremony completed at the Plano Event Center, Plano, Texas!!!😁

February 6, 2023: Wife's Passport Application submitted in Dallas, Texas.

March 21, 2023:   Wife's Passport Delivered!!!!

May 15, 2023 (about):  Naturalization Certificate returned from Passport agency!!

 

In summary, it took 13 months for approval of the CR-1.  It took 44 months for approval of the I-751.  It took 4 months for approval of the N-400.   It took 172 days from N-400 application to Oath Ceremony.   It took 6 weeks for Passport, then 7 additional weeks for return of wife's Naturalization Certificate.. 
 

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Filed: Citizen (apr) Country: Taiwan
Timeline
8 minutes ago, cd37 said:

I said "more backlog" 

:rolleyes:

"The US immigration process requires a great deal of knowledge, planning, time, patience, and a significant amount of money.  It is quite a journey!"

- Some old child of the 50's & 60's on his laptop 

 

Senior Master Sergeant, US Air Force- Retired (after 20+ years)- Missile Systems Maintenance & Titan 2 ICBM Launch Crew Duty (200+ Alert tours)

Registered Nurse- Retired- I practiced in the areas of Labor & Delivery, Home Health, Adolescent Psych, & Adult Psych.

IT Professional- Retired- Web Site Design, Hardware Maintenance, Compound Pharmacy Software Trainer, On-site go live support, Database Manager, App Designer.

______________________________________

August 7, 2022: Wife filed N-400 Online under 5 year rule.

November 10, 2022: Received "Interview is scheduled" letter.

December 12, 2022:  Received email from Dallas office informing me (spouse) to be there for combo interview.

December 14, 2022: Combo Interview for I-751 and N-400 Conducted.

January 26, 2023: Wife's Oath Ceremony completed at the Plano Event Center, Plano, Texas!!!😁

February 6, 2023: Wife's Passport Application submitted in Dallas, Texas.

March 21, 2023:   Wife's Passport Delivered!!!!

May 15, 2023 (about):  Naturalization Certificate returned from Passport agency!!

 

In summary, it took 13 months for approval of the CR-1.  It took 44 months for approval of the I-751.  It took 4 months for approval of the N-400.   It took 172 days from N-400 application to Oath Ceremony.   It took 6 weeks for Passport, then 7 additional weeks for return of wife's Naturalization Certificate.. 
 

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Filed: F-2A Visa Country: Germany
Timeline
2 hours ago, Boiler said:

That has been the general trend for many years and will likely continue unless there is Comprehensive Reform.

 

Well, talking of F2A,2013 the VB was current. 2014 and 2015 were almost identical with good VB movement, and as we see, similar numbers.

In recent years only the election year stands out and there is no real trend at least short term. As for 2016, the later in the year, the more applications.

People realized that Trump could win, got scared, and applied more and more. This means people with PD till mid of 2016 will do better than people with PD later in 2016.

 

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Filed: K-1 Visa Country: Wales
Timeline
1 minute ago, Michael2017 said:

 

Well, talking of F2A,2013 the VB was current. 2014 and 2015 were almost identical with good VB movement, and as we see, similar numbers.

In recent years only the election year stands out and there is no real trend at least short term. As for 2016, the later in the year, the more applications.

People realized that Trump could win, got scared, and applied more and more. This means people with PD till mid of 2016 will do better than people with PD later in 2016.

 

Has been that way for at least the last 4 presidents, speeds up slows down. People speculate the reasons why. The general trend is longer.

“If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.”

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Filed: F-2A Visa Country: Germany
Timeline
2 hours ago, missileman said:

When will they have data for the 3rd qtr ready?

Can be expected to be published in December. 2017 has seen a big increase in application as well. I would suggest this is the trump effect which will slow VB down even further, and slow down normal CR1 visas as well, unless they allow USCIS to hire much more staff.

 

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Filed: F-2A Visa Country: Germany
Timeline
2 minutes ago, Boiler said:

Has been that way for at least the last 4 presidents, speeds up slows down. People speculate the reasons why. The general trend is longer.

Ok, I checked only short term, you have checked longer term statistics most properly, so for those the general trend could be true.

More people in the country would logically mean more applications. However, the visa numbers are fixed since long term, so generally long term, the trend should be higher yes. I assume the financial crises played into the 2013 wonder of a current F2A visa bulletin. My PD is in the second half of 2016, but we were married already earlier that year. Not applying earlier seems to be a costly mistake now.

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Filed: K-1 Visa Country: Wales
Timeline

When Obama was in power it was the Obama effect, Now Trump, next will be whoever is next.

“If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.”

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Filed: Citizen (apr) Country: Taiwan
Timeline
23 minutes ago, Michael2017 said:

Can be expected to be published in December. 2017 has seen a big increase in application as well. I would suggest this is the trump effect which will slow VB down even further, and slow down normal CR1 visas as well, unless they allow USCIS to hire much more staff.

 

I want to compare 2nd and 3rd FY quarters because I was shocked that there were more than a million pending I-130s at USCIS at the end of March......unbelievably bad......and should have warranted more adjudicators in my opinion. 

"The US immigration process requires a great deal of knowledge, planning, time, patience, and a significant amount of money.  It is quite a journey!"

- Some old child of the 50's & 60's on his laptop 

 

Senior Master Sergeant, US Air Force- Retired (after 20+ years)- Missile Systems Maintenance & Titan 2 ICBM Launch Crew Duty (200+ Alert tours)

Registered Nurse- Retired- I practiced in the areas of Labor & Delivery, Home Health, Adolescent Psych, & Adult Psych.

IT Professional- Retired- Web Site Design, Hardware Maintenance, Compound Pharmacy Software Trainer, On-site go live support, Database Manager, App Designer.

______________________________________

August 7, 2022: Wife filed N-400 Online under 5 year rule.

November 10, 2022: Received "Interview is scheduled" letter.

December 12, 2022:  Received email from Dallas office informing me (spouse) to be there for combo interview.

December 14, 2022: Combo Interview for I-751 and N-400 Conducted.

January 26, 2023: Wife's Oath Ceremony completed at the Plano Event Center, Plano, Texas!!!😁

February 6, 2023: Wife's Passport Application submitted in Dallas, Texas.

March 21, 2023:   Wife's Passport Delivered!!!!

May 15, 2023 (about):  Naturalization Certificate returned from Passport agency!!

 

In summary, it took 13 months for approval of the CR-1.  It took 44 months for approval of the I-751.  It took 4 months for approval of the N-400.   It took 172 days from N-400 application to Oath Ceremony.   It took 6 weeks for Passport, then 7 additional weeks for return of wife's Naturalization Certificate.. 
 

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Filed: F-2A Visa Country: Germany
Timeline
2 minutes ago, missileman said:

I want to compare 2nd and 3rd FY quarters because I was shocked that there were more than a million pending I-130s at USCIS at the end of March......unbelievably bad......and should have warranted more adjudicators in my opinion. 

As far as I know there was an Administrative order from the white house that made sure no new staff can be hired for a period of time.

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