How accurate are VisaJourney's estimates?

[retemad 14]

It says I can expect to hear back by Feb 10 when I submitted on Nov 14...is that true? It says they are already processing Aug 25 NOAs. This is awesome if it is. I just want to see if anyone else is experiencing the same thing.....??

[scott76 22]

They are pretty accurate but there's always someone that's approved much earlier or much later.

Just expect to see a response around then. If you expect you're going to see something in 2 months you're probably just going to disappoint yourself.

[Pitaya 2,576]

The VJ statistics are only as accurate as the number of fellow VJ forum members that correctly fill in their timelines.

[X Factor 1,110]

It is just an estimate to put you in the general ball park.

[Andreea&Kevin 38]

For K1 at CSC it is not accurate at all. Why? It calculates it by what has been reported by VJ members recently. In the past month only a few have have been approved and some of those were from November and October. So, until CSC starts to approve stuff on a regular basis I would ignore the estimate.

[RobBell 32]

My NOA1 date is in September. At first the estimate for the NOA2 was sometime in December through January, then late January to Mid February, now I'm back to December 9 to Jan 15. So Just take it as a rough estimate, it will surely change a few times. I'm still expecting mid to late January.

[TBoneTX 43,014]

*** Thread moved from K-1 Process forum to Site Discussion forum -- topic involves a VisaJourney function (timelines). ***

[TJandJR 69]

To answer your question, my NOA1 is Nov 17. My timeline use to show end of March - mid April. It has changed a few times and now it estimates the earliest time as Feb. 18. But I know it can keep fluctuating and it's only an estimate. There are thousands of people applying for visas and this timeline only accounts for those that are VJ members.... and only those members that accurately fill in their timelines. I agree with the comment about there not being enough approvals lately for it to give a fair estimate. BUT some people in other threads say there vj timeline was accurate within about 10 days. Keep in mind it may have changed several times while they were waiting and by the time it got close to receiving their noa2 it may have been a better estimate. I have heard that those filing after August 15 are getting approved faster because of extra staff and cases being handled by an additional office. I don't know if this is true or if its a rumor. I don't know if it even applies to K1. I have to trust that God knows the perfect time for our case. And truthfully, if it comes too soon I'm not even sure if we will have everything ready we need to do. Hang in there. I know it's hard. If after 5 or 6 months you are still waiting there are steps you can take to find out why.

[retemad 14]

To answer your question, my NOA1 is Nov 17. My timeline use to show end of March - mid April. It has changed a few times and now it estimates the earliest time as Feb. 18. But I know it can keep fluctuating and it's only an estimate. There are thousands of people applying for visas and this timeline only accounts for those that are VJ members.... and only those members that accurately fill in their timelines. I agree with the comment about there not being enough approvals lately for it to give a fair estimate. BUT some people in other threads say there vj timeline was accurate within about 10 days. Keep in mind it may have changed several times while they were waiting and by the time it got close to receiving their noa2 it may have been a better estimate. I have heard that those filing after August 15 are getting approved faster because of extra staff and cases being handled by an additional office. I don't know if this is true or if its a rumor. I don't know if it even applies to K1. I have to trust that God knows the perfect time for our case. And truthfully, if it comes too soon I'm not even sure if we will have everything ready we need to do. Hang in there. I know it's hard. If after 5 or 6 months you are still waiting there are steps you can take to find out why.

Yea, mine has been fluctuating too. I'm up to Feb 9 now from mid March, so I'm sure it's just based off members accurately filling in theirntimelines recently. Looking at the trend it does appear like the volume of applications is decreasing during the last month or two, which is a good sign I am assuming. Less to process? I have been ressearchin and the prevails do seems like they have been roughly accurate for the most part with a few exceptions. My case is very straightforward and I am positive that I have sent a thorough and complete packet wit the help of lots of friends who have married someone from Iran. I just was curious if they do the cases in batches and if anyone else who filed in the same timeframe is hearing anything or seeing the same estimates??

Thanks for all your replies. Thank god for this site as it has been more than helpful in this looooooooong process!

[Captain Ewok 1,857]

If you ever see strange entries with clearly wrong dates please let me know in this forum. We do not use improper dates in the estimation process but if we can correct items then it helps by then making those timelines a part of future estimations. Especially when there is a new year people often make mistakes by entering the old year by accident.

I periodically run a script to help find errors and we then manually fix them, but with your help it will be even better.

[TJandJR 69]

Will do, captain!

[retemad 14]

If you ever see strange entries with clearly wrong dates please let me know in this forum. We do not use improper dates in the estimation process but if we can correct items then it helps by then making those timelines a part of future estimations. Especially when there is a new year people often make mistakes by entering the old year by accident.

I periodically run a script to help find errors and we then manually fix them, but with your help it will be even better.

Yea for the most part they look roughly accurate. There are a few outliers, but that could also be because of exceptions like expedite requests...

[P A U L 14]

can't some users be filtered/deleted from the timeline so that the timeline's estimates are as accurate as possible?

i mean...purge people that have not done anything with the timeline for over a year...or peolpe that have not even logged onto the board in 5 months or something...

[Captain Ewok 1,857]

We ignore timelines with dates or processing durations that are outliers. Those timelines are not used in the estimates (so in some ways the same as deleting, per your suggestion).

[retemad 14]

We ignore timelines with dates or processing durations that are outliers. Those timelines are not used in the estimates (so in some ways the same as deleting, per your suggestion).

So I am noticing that "there are not enough timelines to give an accurate estimate", and noticed that they are processing Sept 19 filers? It seems like it is jumping a week every day. Of course this would be GREAT NEWS, but I can't help but be skeptical of this data. What does everyone think and when would they be able to provide estimates again? It seems like I am not the only one...