Global Warming No Longer a Concern for the Obama Administration

[JohnSmith2007 353]

Looking at historical weather patterns

By Mark McLaughlin

Glacial epochs and historic weather events prove that the Far West is a region of climactic extremes, and climate change, whatever its cause, is likely to have significant impact on the hydrology and ecosystems of the Sierra Nevada in the future. That was the gist of several presentations by climatologists and research scientists at the 2005 California Extreme Symposium held April 22 on the campus of the California State University, Sacramento.

Since 1994, the precipitation symposium has been an annual event at CSUS, where scientists can share with the public the latest research focusing on droughts, floods, and the potential effects of climate change in the Golden State with an emphasis on the hydrologically important Sierra Nevada.

Since the end of the last ice age, prolonged droughts and epic floods have plagued our region. We live on a planet that is always in a state of flux, with climate phases swinging like a slow and ponderous pendulum between ice ages and global warming. It is probably no accident that human civilization has blossomed during the last few thousand years when Earth is experiencing the relatively mild climate regime of an interglacial period.

Clues of the past

Significant weather events can provide clues to the changing climates of the past — and the future. Extensive tree ring analysis indicates that severe droughts lasting centuries or more have seared the western landscape in the not-so-distant past. Ancient tree stumps underwater in Lake Tahoe are convincing evidence of climactic change and a long-term dry period that occurred between 4,000 to 6,000 years ago. The submerged trees were first discovered in 1934 by Samuel Harding, a University of California, Berkeley scientist who noticed the drowned stumps after a prolonged drought had lowered Tahoe’s water level 14 inches below the spillway of the dam. In recent decades the submerged trees have been located off various shores of the lake, the oldest dating to 6,300 years. Scientists theorize that a mega-drought lowered Tahoe’s water level long enough for a forest to sprout and grow for decades before a changing climate pattern increased annual precipitation in the region and raised the lake.

Paleoclimatologist Scott Stine of California State University, Hayward, has published an analysis of tree stumps he located in Mono Lake, which found two prolonged dry spells lasting 100 to 200 years each — one ending in the 1100s, the other in the 1300s. In fact, many lakes in the Sierra Nevada dried up completely during these extended drought conditions and rivers that drained the range were reduced to a trickle.

Further evidence of historic mega-droughts comes from cored sediments of Pyramid Lake, in which researchers have been able to construct a 7600-year history of droughts throughout the surrounding region. The scientists concluded: “Oscillations in the hydrologic balance occurred, on average, about every 150 years, but with significant variability. Over the most recent 2740 years, intervals between droughts ranged from 80 to 230 years, while drought durations ranged from 20 to 100 years. Some of the larger droughts forced mass migrations of indigenous peoples from lands that could no longer support them.”

What does all this mean?

Droughts are a recurring theme and a normal part of the climactic history of the western United States. It is perfectly reasonable to expect more dry periods in the future, even very protracted droughts, with or without the influence of global warming. With that in mind, consider us lucky that the past 100 years in California appears to be the third or fourth wettest century in the past 4,000 years. The historical droughts of the last 150 years have lasted less than a decade, barely a slap on the wrist compared to the epic droughts of the past. It seems a bit naïve to assume that the current average runoff from the Sierra Nevada will continue into perpetuity as it has for the last century or so, a wakeup call for smart growth and intelligent water use and planning.

There does seem to be a consensus among most scientists that the Earth has warmed a small fraction in the past few decades. The debate gets more complicated when people ask if this warming is part of a natural process, or is it caused by man’s activity? Many environmentalists and most governments in the world have said the answer is that man is pumping too much greenhouse gas into the atmosphere. That’s what the Kyoto treaty is all about. Others point out that the Earth has always fluctuated between warm and cool periods, based on climactic change, sunspot activity, oceanic oscillations, and even the axis tilt of the planet.

Retired California State Climatologist Jim Goodridge has been collecting precipitation and weather data for California and the Sierra for 50 years. This ongoing weather archiving project has provided Goodridge with data to make accurate analysis of statewide trends in temperature and precipitation. In reviewing his results, it is understandable why Goodridge questions some of the science and rhetoric that greenhouse gas emissions are forcing climate change. Warming temperature trends in California are generally based on regional averages, but when Goodridge breaks down the regional scope into individual records, a pattern of urban bias is revealed. Goodridge has analyzed 228 stations with 50 to 90 years of record to illustrate that while metropolitan areas show a warming trend (influenced by urban waste heat), rural areas in the State actually show a declining temperature trend.

Goodridge also likes to point out the relationships between California’s climate and oscillations in the Pacific Ocean as well as solar and sunspot cycles. According to Goodridge, temperature trends in California clearly reflect sea surface temperature trends in the Pacific. The ENSO, or El Niño Southern Oscillation is the best known of these pattern changes, but the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) has a marked influence on California temperature trends. In parallel with the El Niño phenomenon, the extreme phases of the PDO have been classified as being either warm or cool, as defined by ocean temperature anomalies. The PDO index responds to the location of upwelling of cold water in the eastern Pacific Ocean. When upwelling is suppressed on our coast like the period from 1975 to 1998, California air temperatures rise. Regional temperatures cool when the cold water upwelling returns, a pattern that is now underway and projected to be with us for the next two decades or more. If Goodridge is right, California’s rural air temperatures may continue to buck the warming trend seen in other parts of the globe.

Other research based on computer-driven climate models suggest that global warming will raise snow levels, increase the risk of downstream flooding, and reduce the Sierra snowpack. A significantly earlier spring melt will also challenge water managers and reservoir operators, not to mention the possible economic impact on winter sports.

No one can state with certainty what the changing climate has in store for us, but even if it’s more of the same, we can expect quite a ride.

http://www.sierrasun.com/article/20050429/LIFE/50429013

Edited January 30, 2011 by JohnSmith2007

[DEDixon 39]

The droughts, flooding and fires are getting worse because of extreme weather patterns, which scientists have attributed to the warming of the planet.

if the droughts they talk about were real, every lawn in CA including those in northern CA would be like the ones in AZ.. full of rocks.

sorry, but "drought" has a different meaning in CA than in any other part of the world.

it just doesn't make sense to talk about drought while the lawn sprinklers are on it the background.

[I AM NOT THAT GUY 5,715]

California does not have an air or water pollution problem Bill? Geez, I know my eye sight is getting worse, but seriously, the smog is VISIBLE!

And you blame this on global warming. Thanks again for proving your irrelevance to any subject under discussion.

[I AM NOT THAT GUY 5,715]

The droughts, flooding and fires are getting worse because of extreme weather patterns, which scientists have attributed to the warming of the planet.

Your "scientists" blame Obama's hangnail on global warming. I have been living in California for more that half a century, and I don't notice anything out of the ordinary as far as "extreme weather patterns". S.O.S.

[one...two...tree 2,762]

Your "scientists" blame Obama's hangnail on global warming. I have been living in California for more that half a century, and I don't notice anything out of the ordinary as far as "extreme weather patterns". S.O.S.

Anecdotal observations are no match for real science. As for what the real scientists are saying...

A biennial report released April 1 by a team of experts that advises California’s governor suggests that climate changes are poised to affect virtually every sector of the state’s economy and most of its ecosystems. Significant impacts will likely occur under even moderate scenarios of global greenhouse emissions and associated climate change, but without action, severe and costly climate change impacts are possible across the state.

The state Climate Action Team (CAT) report uses updated, comprehensive scientific research to outline environmental and economic climate impacts. Its authors include Dan Cayan, a climate scientist at Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego, and a member of the CAT steering team.

A broad collaboration of scientists, mostly from state academic and government agencies, provided a large set of technical papers that form the underpinnings for much of the CAT report. Assessments include the impacts of sea level rise, higher temperatures, increased wildfires, decreased water supplies, increased energy demand, among others, on the state’s environment, industries and economic prosperity. Each of the papers has undergone peer review by technical experts in private, public and governmental entities.

Impacts of climate change to California’s coast, agriculture, forest and communities have been known and studied for years; however the studies that support the CAT report suggest that actual greenhouse gas emissions are outstripping 2006 projections. Of particular interest are the several papers focusing on the impacts of a rise in sea levels to coastal communities and increased potential of wildfires to residential areas.

“The Climate Action Team plays an essential role in the implementation of the state's climate initiatives and is guided by these important technical studies to ensure policy decisions are based on sound science,” said Linda Adams, Secretary for Environmental Protection and Chair of the state’s CAT. “Any delay in fighting global warming would be detrimental to our economic stability – costing us billions of dollars and dampening the state’s most important economic sectors. Taking immediate action on climate change is essential to slow the projected rate of warming. We also need to make smarter decisions in order to anticipate and adapt to the changes.”

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/04/090401182835.htm

[mawilson 2,133]

What's going to be more expensive - trying to "fight" global warming or simply adapting to the changes?

[I AM NOT THAT GUY 5,715]

Anecdotal observations are no match for real science. As for what the real scientists are saying...

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/04/090401182835.htm

You are giving me forecasts for some nebulous future. Where is all this extreme weather you talked about?

[one...two...tree 2,762]

if the droughts they talk about were real, every lawn in CA including those in northern CA would be like the ones in AZ.. full of rocks.

sorry, but "drought" has a different meaning in CA than in any other part of the world.

it just doesn't make sense to talk about drought while the lawn sprinklers are on it the background.

How long have you lived in California? The state, like Arizona, and many other states, rely on water systems. When the reservoirs run low from long periods of little to no precipitation, the state has and will have to set in place, limitations on water usage. I was born and raised in the Phoenix area, and while there are some houses with desert landscapes, the majority of them have grass lawns and backyard pools. It's only in Tucson where you'll see a lot more lawns with desert landscape. Setting limitations on water usage is and has been an ongoing battle among local governments and its citizenry. People living in large metropolitan areas such as LA, will be faced with restrictions on water use in the near future, as the periods of low precipitation will become more severe.

[Pooky 3,343]

You are giving me forecasts for some nebulous future. Where is all this extreme weather you talked about?

Careful. Are you talking weather, or climate? They're completely separate, you know.

[one...two...tree 2,762]

You are giving me forecasts for some nebulous future. Where is all this extreme weather you talked about?

Future predictions are necessary. How do you think economies function?

[Hilarious Clinton 452]

California does not have an air or water pollution problem Bill? Geez, I know my eye sight is getting worse, but seriously, the smog is VISIBLE!

You're talking about a local weather condition, we're talking about climate of a planet. Open your mind.

[mawilson 2,133]

Future predictions are necessary. How do you think economies function?

Let's say it costs $10 billion per year to deal with natural disasters

caused by global warming and $20 billion to fight global warming with

carbon offsets or new taxes or whatever.

Which option would you choose? And why?

[I AM NOT THAT GUY 5,715]

How do you think economies function?

Economically?

[Ban Hammer 12,829]

Future predictions are necessary. How do you think economies function?

lemme know when someone can get a weather forecast that is reasonably accurate more than a week or two away.

[Peikko 1,575]

You're talking about a local weather condition, we're talking about climate of a planet. Open your mind.

Smog is weather to you? Fantastic