I'm actually struggling with understanding what various date predictions are really telling me. When I look right now at the USCIS predictions for Nebraska Service Center (as of 16 April 2018), they're showing 9-11.5 Months, regardless of form type.
So, is this the timeline for NOA1 to NOA2? Or no? In another thread, it was suggested that this particular estimate is just for them to START processing your i130. I'm not sure what the processing time would be (assuming no RFEs).
Maybe this is stupid for me to ask, but I believe NOA2 = is i130 approval and petition forwarded to NVC. Is that right?
Finally, I'm seeing various, perhaps conflicting predictions for processing times here, from VisaJourney. If I got to my profile, I see that my i130 is predicted to be adjudicated the week of May 6. That would be 200-207 days since my NOA1. Then, if I go to the IR1/CR1 Visa Historical Processing Times page, I see 2 things that apparently conflict. The graphs show NOA1 to NOA2 = around 217 days for NSC (which is not far off of my timeline prediction).
But then if you jump to the Timeline Statistics page, and filter for the last 6 months (our NOA1 was exactly 6 months ago, tomorrow), it shows the NSC taking roughly 255 days from NOA1 to NOA2
and then, because the NOA2 to Interview stage is broken down by country/consulate, I'm seeing an average time from NOA2 to Interview of 163 days for Costa Rica.
So, I have a couple key questions.
1) Of those 3 conflicting visajourney predictions for NOA1 to NOA2, which one is more... trustworthy? There's a big difference between 207 days and 255 days. And, since all of those data are generated automatically by VisaJourney, I'm not sure in which one to place more faith. And finally, if my application doesn't even START processing for 9-11.5 months (per the USCIS prediction), that would be 270-345 days (GAH)!
Obviously, I know which number I'm rooting for, and obviously, I know these are all just statistical predictions. I'm just trying to narrow down what VJ's prediction actually is, for me, given the 3 conflicting values for the same event. At first glance, I'm going to guess the 6 month estimate (of 217 days) is the most likely. I guess I'll find out here in a month or so anyway, but I'm just trying to manage my expectations appropriately.
2) What is the typical lag (upon approval) between Interview and Visa? Is it instant? The Step-by-Step Guide here doesn't address this.