Accuracy of Projected Timelines

[Katie312 33]

Hey guys!

 

I was just curious about how accurate other people have found Visa Journey's projected timelines from receiving their Noa1. 

 

Was it earlier, on time or later in your experience? 

[Dashinka 23,170]

The timelines are pretty variable both here on VJ and also from the USCIS site.  The main reason for the lack of accuracy on VJ is that not all members keep their personal timelines up-to-date.  From what I found, it is best to read through the various processing threads started to get an understanding of how fast or slow certain applications are being processed at that time.

 

Good Luck, and welcome to the journey.

[Katie312 33]

9 minutes ago, Bill & Katya said:

The timelines are pretty variable both here on VJ and also from the USCIS site.  The main reason for the lack of accuracy on VJ is that not all members keep their personal timelines up-to-date.  From what I found, it is best to read through the various processing threads started to get an understanding of how fast or slow certain applications are being processed at that time.

 

Good Luck, and welcome to the journey.

Thanks! And good luck to you as well!

Edited April 6, 2018 by Katie312

[023203 3]

Ours was exactly as projected by VJ, at least, for the NOA2, 196 days from NOA1. It's kinda amazing.

[colin57 166]

2 hours ago, Katie312 said:

Hey guys!

 

I was just curious about how accurate other people have found Visa Journey's projected timelines from receiving their Noa1. 

 

Was it earlier, on time or later in your experience? 

We were a couple of days earlier than the timeline but @Naes only received their NOA2 yesterday even though we filed on the 15 September, it would seem that the time lines are getting shorter if you look at the bell curve on the stats page, it has been a nightmare for everyone last year watching the timeline go up and up, the May & June  people were hit worse since they were looking at @ 3 months to approval only to fined it was going to be eight months, we got ours in 180 days with no REF 's which I was surprised about when I read some of the things the USCIS were asking for. 

[Katie312 33]

11 hours ago, 023203 said:

Ours was exactly as projected by VJ, at least, for the NOA2, 196 days from NOA1. It's kinda amazing.

That is amazing. I'm definitely building it up in my mind to be around October before we get our NOA2. I've been hoping it's not a case of getting my hopes up lol. Thanks for your input.

[Katie312 33]

11 hours ago, colin57 said:

We were a couple of days earlier than the timeline but @Naes only received their NOA2 yesterday even though we filed on the 15 September, it would seem that the time lines are getting shorter if you look at the bell curve on the stats page, it has been a nightmare for everyone last year watching the timeline go up and up, the May & June  people were hit worse since they were looking at @ 3 months to approval only to fined it was going to be eight months, we got ours in 180 days with no REF 's which I was surprised about when I read some of the things the USCIS were asking for. 

Ah, I'll have to have a look at this bell curve. Im new on the site! Its so imformative and interesting learning of everyones experiences. 

[BJ & Christine 1,392]

4 minutes ago, Katie312 said:

That is amazing. I'm definitely building it up in my mind to be around October before we get our NOA2. I've been hoping it's not a case of getting my hopes up lol. Thanks for your input.

Haben to keep in mind that there are still people from may 2017 awaiting approval. Just all depends on if USCIS gets off there butts and does what’s needed. They don’t go in # received either. Seem to be a stack set on someone’s desk. Once done with that lot. Get handed another stack. 

[Alabamak1 688]

Our timeline was only off by 1 week, but that had it's reasons. The storm in Porthsmouth, NH is why our NOA-2 approved file didnt make it to NVC on time listed by Visajourney

[ShanghaiSurfer 135]

Ours was exactly as predicted until after interview. After interview took a week longer than VJ was expecting to receive visa. Otherwise it was nearly perfect.

 

 

[Jaquelly 1,647]

I think ours was off by two weeks. That being said, we're already done - his POE is May 6. We got our medical/interview faster than most, and even before some who were approved before us.

[Devon&Julius 21]

19 hours ago, Katie312 said:

Hey guys!

 

I was just curious about how accurate other people have found Visa Journey's projected timelines from receiving their Noa1. 

 

Was it earlier, on time or later in your experience? 

For me it was within 3 weeks of being accurate. Got my approval 3 weeks after prediction.

[023203 3]

6 hours ago, Katie312 said:

That is amazing. I'm definitely building it up in my mind to be around October before we get our NOA2. I've been hoping it's not a case of getting my hopes up lol. Thanks for your input.

Good luck on your journey. The waiting and preparing really builds character. VJ has been a godsend to me and my fiancée. These are good people.

[geowrian 22,335]

For the vast majority of users, the estimates on VJ for common cases (I-129F, I-130 for an immediate relative category, etc.) are pretty accurate. They are more accurate when the timelines are constant or getting shorter, and less accurate when the timeline is getting longer...simply because it knows when things speed up (more data points being entered) but has no idea when things slow down until it starts to see enough data on the slower timeframe.

 

The USCIS processing tables are what they go by for determining if a case is out of normal processing timelines, but those tend to be 2-3 months outdated at any point in time.

[Katie312 33]

17 hours ago, geowrian said:

For the vast majority of users, the estimates on VJ for common cases (I-129F, I-130 for an immediate relative category, etc.) are pretty accurate. They are more accurate when the timelines are constant or getting shorter, and less accurate when the timeline is getting longer...simply because it knows when things speed up (more data points being entered) but has no idea when things slow down until it starts to see enough data on the slower timeframe.

 

The USCIS processing tables are what they go by for determining if a case is out of normal processing timelines, but those tend to be 2-3 months outdated at any point in time.

Wow thanks! That's good stuff to keep in mind.