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Bayareaguy

The differences between CSC and VSC NOA 2's

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On average per month how many VJ users never actually update their timelines?

What is the actual number of applications' received by both service centre's per each of those months?

Looking at Igors list, it looks like the NOA2's to NOA1's tops out around 85%. Some of those have not updated their profiles I'm sure. Some may have cancelled their petition. Some may have been denied as well. I assume the number of those are more or less consistent through time, so it would still be a valid comparison.

Looking at CSC, They average about 1880 NOA1's a month, compared to VJ data, which is about 125/month, so that is 6.6% of the USCIS data, again, close to the 7% seen for NOA2's. I did ignore the last few months of VJ data to get the average, as there is the affect of visa filers "discovering VJ" after filing their NOA1.

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Looking at Igors list, it looks like the NOA2's to NOA1's tops out around 85%. Some of those have not updated their profiles I'm sure. Some may have cancelled their petition. Some may have been denied as well. I assume the number of those are more or less consistent through time, so it would still be a valid comparison.

Looking at CSC, They average about 1880 NOA1's a month, compared to VJ data, which is about 125/month, so that is 6.6% of the USCIS data, again, close to the 7% seen for NOA2's. I did ignore the last few months of VJ data to get the average, as there is the affect of visa filers "discovering VJ" after filing their NOA1.

I beleive California received like 4 times the amount of DACA applications than VT since they are more people in CA applying for it. I'd guess VT manage to digest the 100K of application they got while CSC is just in a middle of it cashing checks and entering applications.

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I beleive California received like 4 times the amount of DACA applications than VT since they are more people in CA applying for it. I'd guess VT manage to digest the 100K of application they got while CSC is just in a middle of it cashing checks and entering applications.

I couldn't find any data on any breakdown of applicants to service center. For all we know, all of them are being processed in CSC...Have you found any service enter specific data?

I do find it interesting that they are very on top of putting out the data for DACA (they update every half month, you can even get the data up to Feb 15 now), while they only have updated through november for K1 data. I guess we can see who is important, and who is not.

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And for the record, I really don't care if DACA is or is not causing the slowdown in CSC I-129F processing. My point is, there is a slow down, and it isn't right. All the application types should be processed in a fair and even manner, and for what ever reason, we have been getting the shaft, with no end in sight.

When CSC VJ data starts showing a few NOA2's a day, then it will be hopeful. Until then, this pretty much sucks, other than for the few who are getting their NOA 2's in a timely manner.

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I fully agree with you Bayareaguy. Not only am I sitting here waiting to be reunited with my love, but our son (another citizen BTW) is growing up without me. I am just glad that I am professionally and financially stable enough that I get to go visit them every 3 or 4 months. I feel really bad for those folks who don't have that luxury.

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I fully agree with you Bayareaguy. Not only am I sitting here waiting to be reunited with my love, but our son (another citizen BTW) is growing up without me. I am just glad that I am professionally and financially stable enough that I get to go visit them every 3 or 4 months. I feel really bad for those folks who don't have that luxury.

As a matter of fact, it's been almost exactly 1 year since I've seen my fiance and her children. :(

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Sorry man. I was just down from 12/24 to 01/12. Plan is to go back in time for my son's first birthday in April :) It's not easy. I am just lucky that I work for a tech company that allows me to do a lot of remote work. Otherwise there is no way I could accumulate enough leave to keep going.

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OK, there seems to be some confusion on how this data was arrived at, or that if this data even exists from USCIS (it does).

Also, I am not expecting anyone to take my word on this, if you are skeptical, I encourage you to look at the data yourself, and come to your own logical conclusion.

From the USCIS web page, the chart with their data (only updated to Nov 2012): http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm?formtype=6&office=2&charttype=1

it shows the national average, and the CSC data in a chart below (make sure to scroll down).

You can change the service center by the tabs, as well as form type (the link is for I-129F, CSC, which is one of the data sets I am using).

The raw data used to derive these charts (and what I used in my charts) is here (also is a link on the lower left corner of the graph, csv format): http://dashboard.uscis.gov/csvfiles/I-129-F_California-Service-Center_Trend-Chart.csv

The data is arranged per month, so it shows "Receipts" which is the NOA1 ("On xxxx xx, 20xx, we received this I129F PETITION FOR FIANCE(E)") and "completions" (NOA2) they have completed that month. Those completions are not the same petitions as the ones received in that month, they are only the data of each type processed in a given month.

The all other pending are the amount of petitions outstanding, that is receipts (NOA1) that are not completed yet (NOA2). The awaiting customer action are RFE's. That number seems high, and in fact doesn't jibe with VJ data, but there is an explanation for that: VJ users have been thoroughly prepped to send in a complete application. Do you think you may have recieved an RFE if you didn't use VJ (or another resource on the internet)?

Now for some reason, there are some on VJ who, unbelievably, don't acknowledge the existence of this data. They seem to have some kind of agenda to keep you uninformed. They also downplay the significance of VJ data. I really don't know what their intentions are...perhaps they don't want to have people see that CSC is slower than VSC, and has been since December. What ever their intentions are, it is very un-american, and I don't like it.

The data is there, you are free to use it...or not use it. Your choice.

And in fact, I am going to try to predict the USCIS NOA2 numbers that will occur for Dec-feb (later today, after I get back from the beach and have time to analyze the error between VJ and USCIS data).

Edited by Bayareaguy

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OK, there seems to be some confusion on how this data was arrived at, or that if this data even exists from USCIS (it does).

Also, I am not expecting anyone to take my word on this, if you are skeptical, I encourage you to look at the data yourself, and come to your own logical conclusion.

From the USCIS web page, the chart with their data (only updated to Nov 2012): http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm?formtype=6&office=2&charttype=1

it shows the national average, and the CSC data in a chart below (make sure to scroll down).

You can change the service center by the tabs, as well as form type (the link is for I-129F, CSC, which is one of the data sets I am using).

The raw data used to derive these charts (and what I used in my charts) is here (also is a link on the lower left corner of the graph, csv format): http://dashboard.uscis.gov/csvfiles/I-129-F_California-Service-Center_Trend-Chart.csv

The data is arranged per month, so it shows "Receipts" which is the NOA1 ("On xxxx xx, 20xx, we received this I129F PETITION FOR FIANCE(E)") and "completions" (NOA2) they have completed that month. Those completions are not the same petitions as the ones received in that month, they are only the data of each type processed in a given month.

The all other pending are the amount of petitions outstanding, that is receipts (NOA1) that are not completed yet (NOA2). The awaiting customer action are RFE's. That number seems high, and in fact doesn't jibe with VJ data, but there is an explanation for that: VJ users have been thoroughly prepped to send in a complete application. Do you think you may have recieved an RFE if you didn't use VJ (or another resource on the internet)?

Now for some reason, there are some on VJ who, unbelievably, don't acknowledge the existence of this data. They seem to have some kind of agenda to keep you uninformed. They also downplay the significance of VJ data. I really don't know what their intentions are...perhaps they don't want to have people see that CSC is slower than VSC, and has been since December. What ever their intentions are, it is very un-american, and I don't like it.

The data is there, you are free to use it...or not use it. Your choice.

And in fact, I am going to try to predict the USCIS NOA2 numbers that will occur for Dec-feb (later today, after I get back from the beach and have time to analyze the error between VJ and USCIS data).

I feel the sane re: potential wilful misinterpretation or ignorance if the statistical analysis. I feel like there's a lot of FUD put out from the VJ forum, and I too am unsure of why. It almost feels like there's a service centre rivalry, or perhaps it's individual jealousy? Who knows. The data from USCIS is frustrating to follow. I look forward to your predictive analysis :)

I am a little surprised no one has written a script yet to pull out all the data out of the system using receipt numbers. Decrement or increment your receipt number provides someone else's statement... Of course, I don't particularly want them to pull down the checker (so don't actually do so), but folks are already doing it manually... Perhaps a pooling of people's manual lookups would provide a better coverage for the data.

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I am a little surprised no one has written a script yet to pull out all the data out of the system using receipt numbers. Decrement or increment your receipt number provides someone else's statement... Of course, I don't particularly want them to pull down the checker (so don't actually do so), but folks are already doing it manually... Perhaps a pooling of people's manual lookups would provide a better coverage for the data.

Wow, I didn't realize that about the receipt numbers. I just checked a bunch before my number, and none had NOA2s.

Haha, a script is quite a bit beyond my capabilities, I just cut and paste columns on excel. I like the idea about populating a database. Then you would have a sample of the actual data instead of the self reported VJ data (which I still think is fine for seing the basic trends occurring).

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